{"id":4620,"date":"2011-09-05T09:34:28","date_gmt":"2011-09-05T06:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4620"},"modified":"2011-09-05T09:34:38","modified_gmt":"2011-09-05T06:34:38","slug":"hisse-senetlerinde-yeni-dususlere-hazirlikli-olun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hisse-senetlerinde-yeni-dususlere-hazirlikli-olun\/","title":{"rendered":"Hisse Senetlerinde Yeni D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere Haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Olun!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) 3. Bedava Para Paketi\u2019ni bekleyen piyasalar, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 20 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar \u2018dayanamayacaklar\u2019 gibi! Dayanabileselerdi 9 A\u011fustos\u2019taki diplerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra ba\u015flayan toparlanma bir s\u00fcre\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>daha<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0devam edebilecekti. Ancak bu ihtimal halen daha olmakla birlikte (bence y\u00fczde 30 olas\u0131l\u0131k) haberlerin ve verilerin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke borsalar\u0131nda yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor (y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131k). Y\u00fczde 70\u2019lik senaryo hayata ge\u00e7mesi durumundaysa \u0130MKB tek ba\u015f\u0131na hareket etmekten vazge\u00e7ip, yeniden d\u0131\u015far\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcmen suyuna girecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-719298586\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bayram tatiline girmeden \u00f6nceki en \u00f6nemli konumuz Jackson Hole\u2019de Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ben Bernanke\u2019nin ne diyece\u011fiydi. Net bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemedi! Daha do\u011frusu \u201cbir\u015fey\u201d s\u00f6ylemedi! Piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi 3. Bedava Para Paketi\u2019ne (BPP) dair bir\u015fey \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Bernanke, \u201820 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda duruma bakar\u0131z\u2019 dedi. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta bu da yetti piyasalar\u0131n \u201csaman alevi\u201d misali bir ralli yapmas\u0131na. Ancak bizim bayram tatilinde oldu\u011fumuz s\u0131rada hafta i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD ekonomisine dair bir ka\u00e7 veri\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bir BPP ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmiyordu. Taa ki Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisine kadar. 95 bin ki\u015filik yeni istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenirken hi\u00e7bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle ABD ekonomisi A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u201chi\u00e7 yeni i\u015f \u00fcretememi\u015f\u201d. Bu veri sonras\u0131nda piyasalardaki kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artt\u0131. Bu veri ekonominin toparlanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, di\u011fer yandan 3. BPP\u2019yi de destekliyordu. Varsay\u0131m basitti: Ekonomi kendi ba\u015f\u0131na ayakta duram\u0131yor, o zaman Fed\u2019e ihtiya\u00e7 var\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bu paket de gelecek! Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda \u201c\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u201d bu varsay\u0131m, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131 ve ABD borsalar\u0131nda ciddi de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131! Buna bir de ABD\u2019de Federal Konut Finansman Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Federal Housing Finance Agency &#8211; FHFA) 17 banka ve finans aleyhine dava a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 eklendi. Ajans\u0131n; bu kurumlar\u0131n mortgage kredilerine dayal\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymetlerin pazarlanmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek riskleri ortaya koymad\u0131klar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 ABD devletinin konut finansman \u015firketleri olan Fannie Mae ve Freddie Mac\u2019i zarara u\u011fratt\u0131klar\u0131 iddias\u0131yla 196 milyar dolarl\u0131k dava a\u00e7mas\u0131 haberi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm borsalara ciddi sat\u0131\u015f getirmi\u015f! Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015fen hisselerin, \u00e7\u0131kanlara oran\u0131 6\u2019ya 1 \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f ki bu da endi\u015fenin \u201cciddi\u201d boyutlara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor!<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 20 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e daha \u00e7ok zaman var. Piyasalar o zamana kadar \u2018dayanamayacaklar\u2019 gibi! Dayanabileselerdi 9 A\u011fustos\u2019taki diplerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra ba\u015flayan toparlanma bir s\u00fcre daha devam edebilecekti. Ancak bu ihtimal halen daha olmakla birlikte (bence y\u00fczde 30 olas\u0131l\u0131k) haberlerin ve verilerin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke borsalar\u0131nda yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor (y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131k). S&amp;P 500 ndeksi\u2019nin grafi\u011fi bunu kan\u0131tlar nitelikte. Amerika\u2019dan gelen haberler k\u00f6t\u00fc de Avrupa\u2019dan gelenler iyi mi? Korkar\u0131m onlar da de\u011fil. Hem bankalar\u0131n stres testi zorluklar\u0131 hem de PIIGS \u00fclke bonolar\u0131nda yeni y\u00fcksek faizlerin g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 gerilimi daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke borsalar\u0131nda ne olacak?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta 3. BPP \u201chevesiyle\u201d y\u00fckselen ancak tutunamayan borsalar\u0131n daha da gerilemeleri ihtimali bu hafta artacakt\u0131r. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.174 seviyesinden kapanan S&amp;P 500\u2019de 1.040-70 band\u0131n\u0131n test edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. B\u00f6ylesi bir hareket ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde de Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 5.538\u2019den kapatan Alman DAX endeksinde 5.120 seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi s\u00f6z konusu!<\/p>\n<p>Ola ki geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke borsalar\u0131 bu haftay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeden kapatacak olursa 20 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131yor olmam\u0131zdan dolay\u0131 yukar\u0131daki \u201cy\u00fczde 30\u2019luk\u201d senaryo hayata ge\u00e7irilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Dip olu\u015fturma \u00e7abalar\u0131 artacak, 31 A\u011fustos\u2019taki y\u00fckseklerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Ancak yukar\u0131da da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere tersinin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bence halen daha y\u00fczde 70!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bu arada \u0130MKB mi ne olur?<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-737221757\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc uzun bayram tatilinde yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ralliyi \u2018taklit etmeye\u2019 \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak \u201cpozitif ayr\u0131\u015fan\u201d \u0130MKB, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda da bu \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. E\u011fer yukar\u0131daki y\u00fczde 30\u2019luk senaryo \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak olur ise ihtimaldir ki \u0130MKB 59.134 ile 55.944 aras\u0131ndaki muhtelif \u201cbo\u015fluklar\u0131\u201d kapatma \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu arada bayram tatilinde \u0130srail ile BM raporu sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan gerginliklerin de bu ihtimali art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u00fczde 70\u2019lik senaryo hayata ge\u00e7mesi durumundaysa \u0130MKB tek ba\u015f\u0131na hareket etmekten vazge\u00e7ip, yeniden d\u0131\u015far\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcmen suyuna girecektir. Bu durumda da bayramdan \u00f6nceki Pazartesi ile ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Cuma g\u00fcnlerinde 54.253 ile 54.589 aras\u0131nda olur\u015fan bo\u015fluk kapanacak ve \u0130MKB\u2019de de yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali artacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>Amerika i\u00e7in de \u201cJaponya Sendromu (sorunlu aktiflerin, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 aktifleri \u201chasta etmesi\u201d durumu)\u201d daha s\u0131k konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fsa; yeni y\u00fckseklerden \u00e7ok, yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerin ihtimali art\u0131yor demektir. ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde bu sorunlar ya\u015fan\u0131yorsa, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin bundan \u201cba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d kalma ihtimalleri hayli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u0131saca pariteler&#8230;<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2510632084\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Euro\/dolar cephesinde bayram tatili d\u00f6neminde 1.4550 teknik seviyesi a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131, AB\u2019den gelen \u201ckarar verilememe\u201d haberleriyle paritede ciddi bir gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131! Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.4184\u2019e kadar gerileyen parite, 1.4203 ile diplerine yak\u0131n bir seviyeden kapand\u0131! Bu hafta i\u00e7in 1.4120 seviyesi \u00f6nemli! Ben bu seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 1.4010-1.4045 band\u0131na kadar paritenin gerileyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Yukar\u0131da ise 1.4320 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor!<\/p>\n<p>&#8230; ve dolar\/TL! Bayram s\u00fcresince \u00f6nemli d\u00fczeltmelerini, biz T\u00fcrkler olmadan yapm\u0131\u015f durumda TL! Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn i\u015flem hacmi artan ve ciddi anlamda konvertibl hale gelen TL, bayramda dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.7090\u2019a kadar gerilemi\u015f. Bu seviye hem trend (1.7130), hem d\u00fczeltme (1.7075) hem de 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO (1.7005) seviyelerine olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n bir seviyeydi. Bu seviye \u201ctuttu\u201d! Hem paritedeki hareketler, hem de varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131ndaki gerilimle birlikte yeniden y\u00fckselen dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131nda yeniden 1.7575 seviyelerine gelindi. Bu seviye \u00f6nemli! Paritedeki geli\u015fmelere ayak uyduracak olur ise dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131n\u0131n yeninden 1.7650-1.78 band\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var! \u015eimdilik bu hafta boyunca daha yukar\u0131ya gitme ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da da 1.7150 \u00f6nemli bir destek olacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) 3. Bedava Para Paketi\u2019ni bekleyen piyasalar, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 20 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar \u2018dayanamayacaklar\u2019 gibi! Dayanabileselerdi 9 A\u011fustos\u2019taki diplerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}