{"id":46031,"date":"2016-06-25T11:13:08","date_gmt":"2016-06-25T08:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=46031"},"modified":"2016-06-25T11:13:08","modified_gmt":"2016-06-25T08:13:08","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-falcilarin-yili","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-falcilarin-yili\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; Falc\u0131lar\u0131n Y\u0131l\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funluk Brexit diye bir meselenin fark\u0131nda de\u011fildi. Fark\u0131nda olanlar da olay\u0131n buralara varaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmiyordu. ABD ekonomisinin gidi\u015fine ili\u015fkin verileri ve Fed\u2019den gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izleyenlerin \u00e7o\u011fu Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l 2 ile 4 aras\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2573378721\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Makroekonomik tahmin yapman\u0131n iki yolu vard\u0131r: (1) Tahmine temel olu\u015fturan varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131ralay\u0131p verileri ve olas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irerek tahmin yapmak. (2) Bu t\u00fcr zahmetlere girmeyip rastgele tahmin yapmak.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00e7o\u011funlukla ilk yolu, falc\u0131lar ve iktisat\u00e7\u0131ym\u0131\u015f gibi yapanlar ikinci yolu izlerler. B\u00fcy\u00fcme bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5 olacak ya da y\u0131lsonu Dolar kuru 3 olacak dediklerinde bu tahminlerinin dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar nelerdir, hangi verileri kulland\u0131n diye sorsan\u0131z ikincilerin yan\u0131t\u0131 yoktur.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l bitti\u011finde iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n tahminleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015fse varsay\u0131mlar\u0131na bakmak gerekir. Varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 tuttu\u011fu halde tahminleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015fse ya da varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 tutmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde tahminleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fse sorun var demektir.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2016\/06\/falclarn-yl.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>. (Mahfiegilmez.Com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funluk Brexit diye bir meselenin fark\u0131nda de\u011fildi. Fark\u0131nda olanlar da olay\u0131n buralara varaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmiyordu. ABD ekonomisinin gidi\u015fine ili\u015fkin verileri ve Fed\u2019den gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-46031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46031\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}