{"id":45978,"date":"2016-06-22T16:46:00","date_gmt":"2016-06-22T13:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=45978"},"modified":"2016-06-22T16:51:27","modified_gmt":"2016-06-22T13:51:27","slug":"ayrilmak-ya-da-ayrilmamak-iste-butun-mesele-bu-diyemem-sana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ayrilmak-ya-da-ayrilmamak-iste-butun-mesele-bu-diyemem-sana\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cAyr\u0131lmak ya da ayr\u0131lmamak, i\u015fte b\u00fct\u00fcn mesele bu!\u201d diyemem sana\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>K\u00fcresel piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sadece 2016\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fil son y\u0131llar\u0131n en kritik g\u00fcnlerinden birinin arifesindeyiz. Yar\u0131n, yani 23 Haziran 2016 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Halk\u0131, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ayr\u0131lma ya da Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde (AB) kalma karar\u0131n\u0131 vermek \u00fczere sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na gidecek. Son d\u00f6nemdeki pop\u00fcler tabirlerle ifade etmek gerekirse yar\u0131nki referandum sonucunda ya \u201cBrexit<a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>\u201d ya da \u201cBremain<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a>\u201d karar\u0131 verilecek. Olas\u0131 bir ayr\u0131l\u0131k sonucunun, son k\u00fcresel krizden bu yana uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek en ciddi t\u00fcrb\u00fclansa yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminler ve oylama yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a yay\u0131nlanan anketlerin bu ihtimalin hi\u00e7 de zay\u0131f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmesi k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki stresin had safhaya ula\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu yaz\u0131da referandum s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan konular\u0131 ve sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kacak kararlar\u0131n ekonomi ve piyasalarda olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 muhtemel etkilere ili\u015fkin beklentilerimizi payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2727346084\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Nedir? Nas\u0131l Buraya Gelindi?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 David Cameron, partisi i\u00e7indeki parti kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri dikkate alarak 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131nda, May\u0131s 2015 se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda yeniden se\u00e7ilmeleri durumunda \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin AB \u00fcyeli\u011finin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fini ve en ge\u00e7 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonuna kadar \u00fcyelikten ayr\u0131lma ya da \u00fcyeli\u011fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik bir halk oylamas\u0131na gidilece\u011fini vaat etti. Yeniden se\u00e7ilmeleri sonras\u0131nda da hali haz\u0131rda belirli ayr\u0131cal\u0131klara sahip olan \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin, AB ile olan ili\u015fkilerini daha avantajl\u0131 bir duruma getirmeye y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerde elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme ve vaadini yerine getirme amac\u0131yla \u015eubat 2016\u2019da \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin AB \u00fcyeli\u011fine ili\u015fkin referandumun 23 Haziran 2016 tarihinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45979 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit1-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit1- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"568\" height=\"237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit1-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 568w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit1-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x125.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 1: Referandum Tarihi A\u00e7\u0131klanana Kadar Olan S\u00fcre\u00e7 \u2013 Kaynak: the Economist, ONS, YouGov<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Referandum tarihi ilk a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin \u00fcyelikten ayr\u0131lma karar\u0131 vermesi uzak bir ihtimal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Ancak, \u00f6zellikle son aylarda g\u00f6\u00e7menlere ili\u015fkin Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde t\u0131rmanan endi\u015feler ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ili\u015fkin ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n bitip t\u00fckenmeden devam etmesi gibi geli\u015fmeler, ayr\u0131l\u0131k taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00d6yle ki, anketler referandum s\u00fcreci yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a ayr\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki oylar\u0131n kalma taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hatta ge\u00e7ti\u011fini i\u015faret ediyordu. Son derece sert bir \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen referandum kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken; AB\u2019de kalma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kampanya y\u00fcr\u00fcten \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi milletvekili Jo Cox se\u00e7im b\u00f6lgesi Birstall&#8217;da u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 silahl\u0131 ve b\u0131\u00e7akl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 da hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi sonras\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan anketler AB\u2019de kalma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki oylar\u0131n ayr\u0131l\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki oylar\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Anketler<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit2-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45980 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit2-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit2- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"605\" height=\"87\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit2-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit2-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x43.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 2: Financial Times (FT) Anketi \u2013 Kaynak: Financial Times<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Referanduma 1 g\u00fcn kala halen anketlerin ba\u015faba\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve karars\u0131zlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k % 10 gibi son derece \u00f6nemli dilime kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Yukar\u0131da <strong>Financial Times<a href=\"#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\"><strong>[3]<\/strong><\/a><\/strong>\u2019\u0131n internet sitesinde yay\u0131nlanan ankete, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise <strong>the Economist<a href=\"#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\"><strong>[4]<\/strong><\/a><\/strong>\u2019in internet sitesinde yay\u0131nlanan ankete ili\u015fkin sonu\u00e7lar yer almaktad\u0131r. Anketlerin son ana kadar ba\u015fa ba\u015f gidiyor olmas\u0131n\u0131n ortaya koydu\u011fu tek bilgi, son ana kadar hi\u00e7 kimsenin sonucu bilmedi\u011fidir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f istatistikler anketlerin zaman zaman ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yan\u0131labildi\u011fini i\u015faret etmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, internet ve telefon \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan anketlerinde de bir miktar farkl\u0131la\u015fma oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u0130nternet bazl\u0131 anketlerde ayr\u0131lmaya y\u00f6nelik oylar, telefon bazl\u0131 anketlerde de kalmaya y\u00f6nelik oylar\u0131n bir miktar daha \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Ancak, bunlar\u0131n gerek\u00e7eleri \u00fczerine de tart\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir. Dikkat \u00e7eken bir unsurda gen\u00e7 ve ya\u015fl\u0131lar\u0131n oylar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen bariz ayr\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. Gen\u00e7lerin ciddi bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla AB\u2019den kalma, ya\u015fl\u0131lar\u0131n ise ciddi bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla AB\u2019den ayr\u0131lma taraf\u0131nda olduklar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Buradan hareketle, yar\u0131nki referandumda kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 ve gen\u00e7\/ya\u015fl\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131n son derece belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1898874898\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit3-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45981 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit3-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit3- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"593\" height=\"249\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit3-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 593w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit3-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x126.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 593px) 100vw, 593px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 3: The Economist Anket Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u2013 Kaynak: the Economist<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Oylama s\u00fcreci <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit4-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45982 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit4-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit4- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"309\" height=\"197\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit4-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 309w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit4-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x191.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 309px) 100vw, 309px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 4: 23 Haziran Referandumunda Kullan\u0131lacak Oy Pusulas\u0131<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Oylama yar\u0131n TS\u0130 ile 09:00 \u2013 23:59 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek. Gece yar\u0131s\u0131 oylaman\u0131n sona ermesiyle birlikte sand\u0131klar kapanacak ve say\u0131m i\u015flemine ge\u00e7ilecek. Toplam 382 B\u00f6lge\u2019de say\u0131lan oylar 12 ana merkezde toplanacak ve sonu\u00e7lar k\u00fcm\u00fclatif olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 netle\u015fece\u011fi kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131, oylar\u0131n say\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131 ve merkeze ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi etkenlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Oy kullan\u0131lacak her bir istasyonun listesinde maksimum 2500 se\u00e7men bulundu\u011funu da ifade edelim. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da detaylar\u0131n\u0131 verece\u011fimiz \u00fczere anketlerin AB\u2019de kalma ya da ayr\u0131lmaya y\u00f6nelik oylar\u0131n ba\u015fa ba\u015f gitti\u011fini i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n 24 Haziran Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc sabaha kar\u015f\u0131 netle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3603386957\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Referandum Sonras\u0131nda Ne Olacak?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Referandum sonucunun direkt yasal bir ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok; ancak Ba\u015fbakan Cameron, olas\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda hemen gerekli ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. AB \u00fcyeli\u011finden ayr\u0131lmaya ili\u015fkin detaylar\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Lizbon Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 50. Maddesine g\u00f6re \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in yasak d\u00fczenlemelerin ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrecek m\u00fczakere s\u00fcreci ba\u015flayacak. \u0130ngiltere, AB\u2019nin yap\u0131sal ve tarihsel ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu s\u00fcrecin \u00e7ok daha uzun y\u0131llar alabilece\u011fi de tahmin ediliyor. Yani, di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle olas\u0131 bir Brexit sonucunda \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin hemen 24 Haziran 2016 g\u00fcn\u00fc AB\u2019den direk ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi bir durum s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Ancak, belirsizli\u011fin had safhaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131, bu durumun da uzun s\u00fcre finansal piyasalar\u0131 me\u015fgul edece\u011fi bir s\u00fcrece girilece\u011fi kesin.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130ngiltere Ekonomisi ve AB <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2 milyonun \u00fczerinde di\u011fer AB \u00fclke vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakta oldu\u011fu \u0130ngiltere, 1 Ocak 1973 tarihinden bu yana AB \u00fcyesidir (Eski Ad\u0131yla Avrupa Ekonomik Toplulu\u011fu &#8211; AET). Schengen Alan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olmayan \u0130ngiltere, \u00a0Euro yerine kendi para birimini kullanmaktad\u0131r. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Ki\u015fi Ba\u015f\u0131na D\u00fc\u015fen Milli Gelir, \u00a0AB \u00fcyesi oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece izledi\u011fi seyir g\u00f6zlenmektedir. AB \u00fcyelerinin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczdesi olarak g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit5-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45983 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit5-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit5- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"564\" height=\"241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit5-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 564w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit5-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x128.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 564px) 100vw, 564px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 5: AB \u00dcyeli\u011fi S\u00fcresi nce \u0130ngiltere Ki\u015fi Ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH &#8211; Kaynak: the Economist<\/em><\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca \u0130ngiltere\u2019den Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye yap\u0131lan ihracat ilgili \u00fclkelerin toplam ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7indeki paylar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Varolu\u015funun temeli kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ticari ili\u015fkilere dayanan AB ile \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin D\u0131\u015f Ticaret konusunda birbirlerine ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikten de a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit6-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45984 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit6-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit6- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"567\" height=\"251\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit6-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 567w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit6-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x133.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 6: \u0130ngiltere &#8211; AB D\u0131\u015f Ticaret &#8211; Kaynak: The Economist<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Sonraki grafikte, AB \u00fcyeli\u011fi\u2019nin, \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye maliyeti g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Buna g\u00f6re, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda AB\u2019ye \u00fcye olman\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 130 poundluk bir maliyet getirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Buradaki hesaplamalarda 1980lerde Margaret Thatcher taraf\u0131ndan kazan\u0131lan iskonto \u2013 ki bunun 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 5 milyar poundluk bir indirime kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmektedir \u2013 ve AB fonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye verdi\u011fi katk\u0131larda dikkate al\u0131nmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zetle \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin, AB\u2019ye y\u0131lda 8.5 milyar poundluk net katk\u0131 verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.\u00a0 Brexit taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131ndan biri de \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin verdi\u011fi katk\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda elde ettiklerini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131; bu katk\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkedeki bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara y\u00f6nlendirilmesinin \u0130ngiltere ekonomisine \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit7-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45985 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit7-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png\" alt=\"brexit7- erol g\u00fcrcan\" width=\"604\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit7-erol-g\u00fcrcan.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/brexit7-erol-g\u00fcrcan-300x215.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>\u015eekil 7: AB \u00dcyeli\u011finin \u0130ngiltere B\u00fct\u00e7esine Maliyeti &#8211; Kaynak: Financial Times<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Brexit\u2019in Olas\u0131 Ekonomik Etkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Brexit s\u00fcreci asl\u0131nda halihaz\u0131rda \u0130ngiltere Ekonomisi\u2019ni olumsuz etkilemektedir. Referandum s\u00fcrecinin getirdi\u011fi belirsizlik ekonomik veriler \u00fczerinde de hissedilmektedir. Ancak, as\u0131l sert etkinin olas\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f durumunda g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek de \u00e7ok zor de\u011fil. Yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi olas\u0131 bir Brexit karar\u0131 \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin hemen ertesi g\u00fcn AB\u2019den ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyecek. Ancak, b\u00f6yle bir durumda olduk\u00e7a stresli ve uzun bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 kesin. Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131 beraberinde g\u00fcven kayb\u0131n\u0131 bu da yat\u0131r\u0131m ve ekonomik faaliyetlerin olumsuz etkilenmesini beraberinde getirecektir. \u0130ngiltere ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin olas\u0131 bir ayr\u0131l\u0131k durumunda gelecek 1-2 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k % 1-2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Di\u011fer taraftan, d\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131nda AB \u00fcyeli\u011fi ile elde edilen t\u00fcm ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 durumlar\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 ve hem AB B\u00f6lgesi he de di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle yeniden ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lma ihtiyac\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelecek. Yukar\u0131daki grafiklerde g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi d\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere ve AB\u2019nin ciddi \u015fekilde birbirlerine ihtiyac\u0131 var. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, olas\u0131 bir ayr\u0131lma durumunda da \u0130ngiltere yine AB ile ticari faaliyetlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme iste\u011fi ve ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7inde olacakt\u0131r. Ancak, bu ili\u015fkilerin yeniden kurulmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde \u0130ngiltere elindeki bir\u00e7ok avantaj\u0131 kaybedece\u011fi gibi ticari ili\u015fkileri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek ad\u0131na hem b\u00fct\u00e7esinden katk\u0131 yapma hem de AB yasalar\u0131 ile uyumlu hareket etme ger\u00e7eklerinden de ka\u00e7amayacakt\u0131r. Bu da Brexit kampanyas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda s\u0131kl\u0131kla ba\u015fvurulan b\u00fct\u00e7e ve yasal d\u00fczenlemeleri tamamen AB\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olu\u015fturulma iste\u011finin biraz naif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Brexit ihtimalinin bu denli ciddi boyutlara ula\u015fmas\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli etkenlerden olan g\u00f6\u00e7men sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn de AB\u2019den ayr\u0131lmak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki mevcut ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik demografik yap\u0131ya ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan modeller, gerek AB gerek AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ileride daha fazla ve daha ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusu ve \u00e7ok daha az \u00e7ocu\u011f\u00fc beraberinde getirece\u011fi ancak; mevcut g\u00f6\u00e7men giri\u015fleri s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc takdirde toplam n\u00fcfusun artaca\u011f\u0131 ancak mevcut demografik yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermeyece\u011fi tahmin edilmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ngiltere ekonomisi, AB \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131nda sahip oldu\u011fu ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 konum, \u00f6zellikle de Euro yerine sterlini kullan\u0131yor olmas\u0131 sayesinde b\u00f6lgedeki zorluklar\u0131 daha iyi y\u00f6netme \u015fans\u0131na sahip oldu. Her ne kadar son d\u00f6nemlerde o g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcden biraz uzakla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da; \u0130ngiltere, son k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131nda ABD\u2019den sonra en iyi toparlanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren en iyi 2. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke konumunda. \u00d6yle ki, Fed\u2019in ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gitmesi en muhtemel \u00fclke de \u0130ngiltere. Referandum s\u00fcrecinin getirdi\u011fi belirsizlik olmasayd\u0131 belki de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ne zaman ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fi \u015fu anda \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek perdeden konu\u015fuluyor olabilirdi. Olas\u0131 bir Brexit karar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan hem \u0130ngiltere hem de AB ekonomisine b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zarar vermesi beklenebilir. Ancak, uzun vade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamayan kriz ortam\u0131 ve bu referandumla birlikte daha da sorgulan\u0131r hale gelecek olan birlik g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; Brexit\u2019in uzun vadede de AB\u2019ye olmasa da \u00a0\u0130ngiltere ekonomisine zarar verece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek \u00e7ok kolay de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirdi\u011finde de, referandumdan da \u00e7\u0131kacak karar\u0131n ekonomik ve siyasi anlamda \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Her iki durumda da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin AB\u2019ye \u00fcyelik s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin olumlu ve olumsuz ihtimaller g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Ancak, hem \u0130ngiltere\u2019de hem de AB B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek ani bir yava\u015flama, son d\u00f6nemlerde AB kaynakl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen toparlanmay\u0131 uzun bir s\u00fcre yakalayamamam\u0131z anlam\u0131na da gelecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Referandum Sonucun Olas\u0131 Piyasa Etkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eu ana kadar yay\u0131nlanan anketlerden \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fimiz tek bir \u015fey var; o da referandum sonucunu kimsenin bilmedi\u011fi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ciddi bir belirsizlik oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. Anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n Brexit ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde k\u00fcresel piyasalarda ciddi bir stres ortam\u0131n\u0131 oldu\u011funu; son hafta itibariyle Bremain ihtimalinin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ise piyasalar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a rahatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>Sand\u0131ktan Brexit\u2019in \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda, k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00e7ok ciddi \u015fekilde artmas\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcreli bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans d\u00f6nemine girilmesi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir ihtimal. Di\u011fer taraftan, Bremain karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda da rahatlaman\u0131n getirece\u011fi bir iyimserlik k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Ancak, bu iyimserli\u011fin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser senaryodaki kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, hem son hafta k\u00fcresel piyasalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen rahatlaman\u0131n etkisiyle Bremain ihtimali tam olmasa da bir miktar fiyatlara girmi\u015f durumda, hem de al\u0131nan bunca geni\u015fleyici \u00f6nleme kar\u015f\u0131n hala toparlanamayan bir AB, Negatif faizli tahviller, Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcreci, ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri, \u00c7in, vs. gibi bir s\u00fcredir bu referandumun g\u00f6lgesinde kalm\u0131\u015f \u00e7ok ciddi baz\u0131 risk unsurlar\u0131 yeniden \u00f6n plana gelecektir. Di\u011fer taraftan, \u0130ngiltere ve Avrupa siyasetinde de yeni sorunlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. AB\u2019nin siyasi birli\u011finin korunmas\u0131 ad\u0131na \u00f6zellikle Almanya ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 tutumunda de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi gibi \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin tavr\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fclkeler \u00f6rnek olmamas\u0131 ve birlikte bir \u00e7atlak yaratmamas\u0131 ad\u0131na daha kat\u0131 bir tutum sergilenebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, se\u00e7im vaadi olan AB\u2019den ayr\u0131lma referandumunu yerine getiren \u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Cameron, kampanya boyunca AB\u2019de kalmaktan yana bir tav\u0131r sergiledi. Olas\u0131 bir Brexit karar\u0131nda Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riske girebilece\u011fi gibi, Bremain durumunda da parti i\u00e7indeki farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler kendisini ve \u0130ngiltere siyasetini bir s\u00fcre daha zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n<p>En ba\u015fta sonuca ili\u015fkin bildi\u011fimiz tek \u015fey kimsenin sonucu bilmedi\u011fi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftik. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu riski almak istemeyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hem bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015fta hem de yar\u0131n oylama sonu\u00e7lanana kadar mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatarak izlemede kalmas\u0131 birinci senaryo olarak akla gelmektedir. Di\u011fer senaryo da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n referandum sonucuna ili\u015fkin bireysel beklentileri do\u011frultusunda pozisyon almas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Olas\u0131 bir Brexit karar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n, dolar, yen gibi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde g\u00fcvenli liman alg\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturan enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a pozitif etkilemesi beklenebilir. Ancak, k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n bu durumdan olduk\u00e7a sert ve olumsuz etkilenece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kacak paran\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclecek \u00fclke tahvillerine girme ihtimali de bu tahvil faizlerinin gerilemesini sa\u011flayabilir. Dolar\u0131n ve alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak tercih edilme ihtimali yurti\u00e7inde ba\u015fta gram alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda dolar\/TL kurunda sert y\u00fckseli\u015flerin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bremain durumunda ise tam tersi senaryo ge\u00e7erli olacakt\u0131r. Ancak, Brexit\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclecek hareketlerin Bremain\u2019e g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha sert ve uzun soluklu olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimizi de bir kez daha hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Borsa \u0130stanbul, d\u00fcn ve bug\u00fcn olduk\u00e7a dar bir bantta seyrediyor. Risk almak istemeyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kapataca\u011f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n ve yar\u0131nki oylama sona erene kadar s\u00fcrecek belirsizli\u011fin i\u015flem hacmini iyice zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Son s\u00f6z olarak, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin AB\u2019den \u201cayr\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da ayr\u0131lmamas\u0131\u201d k\u0131sa vadede olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r; ancak yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fimiz gibi k\u00fcresel ekonomide yer alan di\u011fer riskler nedeniyle t\u00fcm mesele bundan ibaret olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><em><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> Brexit, \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u201d ve \u201c\u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u201d kelimelerinin \u0130ngilizcesi olan the Great Britain ve Exit kelimelerinin birle\u015ftirilmesinden olu\u015fan ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik karar\u0131 i\u015faret eden g\u00fcncel ve pop\u00fcler piyasa deyimi.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Bremain, ise \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u201d ve \u201cKalmak\u201d kelimelerinin \u0130ngilizcesi olan the Great Britain ve Remain kelimelerinin birle\u015fmesinden olu\u015fan ve referandum sonucunun \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik karar\u0131 i\u015faret eden piyasa deyimi.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/ig.ft.com\/sites\/brexit-polling\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/ig.ft.com\/sites\/brexit-polling\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/blogs\/graphicdetail\/2016\/06\/britain-s-eu-referendum\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/www.economist.com\/blogs\/graphicdetail\/2016\/06\/britain-s-eu-referendum<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sadece 2016\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fil son y\u0131llar\u0131n en kritik g\u00fcnlerinden birinin arifesindeyiz. Yar\u0131n, yani 23 Haziran 2016 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Halk\u0131, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ayr\u0131lma&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1352,1513,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362],"class_list":["post-45978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45978\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}