{"id":45940,"date":"2016-06-21T15:32:11","date_gmt":"2016-06-21T12:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=45940"},"modified":"2016-06-21T15:32:11","modified_gmt":"2016-06-21T12:32:11","slug":"tcmb-faiz-karari-haziran-2016-degerlendirme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tcmb-faiz-karari-haziran-2016-degerlendirme\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB Faiz Karar\u0131 Haziran 2016 De\u011ferlendirme"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>TCMB, herhangi bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmayarak, faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 50 bp indirime giderken koridorun alt band\u0131 ve 1 Hafta Vadeli Repo Faizini sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan karar, beklentilerle uyumlu olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, piyasalar \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir etki b\u0131rakmad\u0131. \u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1243796223\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45941 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016.png\" alt=\"PPK Haziran 2016\" width=\"520\" height=\"162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016.png 520w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016-300x93.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yorum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>TCMB, bu ay da piyasalar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmayarak \u00a0son aylarda oldu\u011fu gibi faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131ndaki 50 bp\u2019lik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc indirimlere devam ederken; koridorun alt band\u0131 ve 1 Hafta Vadeli Repo Faizini sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131. B\u00f6ylelikle, Mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131nda yap\u0131lan indirim toplam 175 bp\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, Ge\u00e7 Likidite Penceresi Bor\u00e7 Verme Faizinde de 50 bp\u2019lik bir indirime gidildi. Ancak, bu taraf\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fundan yap\u0131lan indirim \u00e7ok anlaml\u0131 olmay\u0131p; TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimleri konusundaki isteklili\u011fini i\u015faret etmektedir denilebilir.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klanan karar\u0131n piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu olmas\u0131 nedeniyle fiyatlamalar \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir etkisinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Piyasalarda, Brexit endi\u015felerinin \u00f6nceki haftaya g\u00f6re nispeten zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi iyimserli\u011fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcst bantta yap\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc indirim sonras\u0131nda; mevcut fonlama kompozisyonunda radikal bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde, A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Ortalama Fonlama Faizinin (AOFF) bir sonraki toplant\u0131ya kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 \u2013 30 bp gerilemesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u00d6zellikle kur ve enflasyonun izleyece\u011fi seyir bu taraftaki en \u00f6nemli belirleyiciler olacakt\u0131r. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda % 9\u2019lu seviyelerde olan AOFF, Haziran ay\u0131 boyunca ortalama % 8.41 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00a0AOFF taraf\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin devam etmesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131m ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde borsay\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekleyebilece\u011fi gibi kur ve enflasyon \u00fczerinde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiler b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Kararla birlikte yay\u0131nlanan \u00f6zet metin, bir \u00f6nceki aya ait metinle hemen hemen ayn\u0131 olsa da eklenen\/\u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan ifadeler \u015fu \u015fekilde:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>May\u0131s ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verilerinin \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerde bir miktar iyile\u015fmeyi i\u015faret etmesinin etkisiyle;\n<ul>\n<li>Son aylarda enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nedeni olarak \u00f6nceki metinde yer alan<strong> \u201ctemelde i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olarak\u201d<\/strong> ifadesi yerine <strong>\u201ci\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olumlu seyri ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon e\u011filimindeki iyile\u015fmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak\u201d<\/strong> ifadesi kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Likidite politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131n gerek\u00e7esi olarak \u00f6nceki metinde yer alan <strong>\u201d\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon<\/strong> <strong>e\u011filimindeki iyile\u015fmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131\u201d <\/strong>ifadesi yerine<strong> \u201chizmet enflasyonundaki<\/strong> <strong>ve birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetlerindeki<\/strong> <strong>geli\u015fmeler<\/strong>\u201d ifadesi kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklerden hareketle, uzun s\u00fcredir y\u00fcksek seviyelerde olan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinde May\u0131s ay\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen iyile\u015fmenin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerine devam edebilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Ancak, bu etkinin temelde gecikmeli kur etkilerinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde TL\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen de\u011ferlenme s\u00fcrecinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte terse d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerdeki iyile\u015fmenin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok kolay olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6ylemek l\u00e2z\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2722526403\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ba\u015fta bu hafta \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olan referandum ve Fed\u2019in Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler kaynakl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u00f6nemli bir stres unsuru g\u00fcndeme gelmedik\u00e7e, \u00a0ya da gelecek Enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri ve kur seviyelerinde \u00f6nemli bir bozulma olmad\u0131k\u00e7a TCMB\u2019nin 19 Temmuz\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi \u00a0bir sonraki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda da yine koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 25 \u2013 50 bp\u2019lik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerine devam etmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-45942 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016-2.png\" alt=\"PPK Haziran 2016 - 2\" width=\"405\" height=\"255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016-2.png 611w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/PPK-Haziran-2016-2-300x189.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 405px) 100vw, 405px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TCMB, herhangi bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmayarak, faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 50 bp indirime giderken koridorun alt band\u0131 ve 1 Hafta Vadeli Repo Faizini sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1513],"class_list":["post-45940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45940\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}