{"id":45279,"date":"2016-05-03T14:39:02","date_gmt":"2016-05-03T11:39:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=45279"},"modified":"2016-05-03T17:16:45","modified_gmt":"2016-05-03T14:16:45","slug":"nisan-2016-tufe-verisine-iliskin-degerlendirmeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/nisan-2016-tufe-verisine-iliskin-degerlendirmeler\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Nisan 2016 T\u00dcFE Verisine \u0130li\u015fkin De\u011ferlendirmeler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi ayl\u0131k piyasa beklentilerinden (+ % 1.00) daha olumlu, benim beklentime (% 0.76) paralel % 0.78 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 6.57 ile son 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/strong> <\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3412321619\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu sonu\u00e7larla birlikte, Anadolu Ajans\u0131 (15 Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131) ve Foreks (24 Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131) taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen Nisan 2016 Enflasyon beklenti anketlerinin her ikisinde de en yak\u0131n tahmin Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu. Man\u015fet enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen toparlanmada en \u00f6nemli etken G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n izledi\u011fi seyir etkili oldu. Di\u011fer taraftan, ayl\u0131k bazda \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerde g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f; y\u0131ll\u0131k serideki toparlanman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na ve bu g\u00f6stergelerdeki y\u00fcksek seyrin s\u00fcrmesine neden oldu.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-sonu\u00e7.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45281 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-sonu\u00e7.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe-sonu\u00e7\" width=\"605\" height=\"176\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-sonu\u00e7.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-sonu\u00e7-300x87.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<strong>\u00d6nemli Rakamlar:<\/strong><br \/>\nNisan 2016 T\u00dcFE<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Man\u015fet\n<ul>\n<li>Ayl\u0131k: % 0.78 (Mart 2016: &#8211; % 0.04; Nisan 2015: % 1.63)<\/li>\n<li>Y\u0131ll\u0131k: % 6.57 (Mart 2016: % 7.46; Aral\u0131k 2015: % 8.81)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7ekirdek G\u00f6stergeler\n<ul>\n<li>H Endeksi\n<ul>\n<li>Ayl\u0131k: % 1.68 (Mart 2016: % 0.45; Nisan 2015: % 1.78)<\/li>\n<li>Y\u0131ll\u0131k: % 9.21 (Mart 2016: % 9.32; Aral\u0131k 2015: % 9.27)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>I Endeksi\n<ul>\n<li>Ayl\u0131k: % 1.94 (Mart 2016: % 0.41; Nisan 2015: % 2.03)<\/li>\n<li>Y\u0131ll\u0131k: % 9.41 (Mart 2016: % 9.51; Aral\u0131k 2015: % 9.51)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Ayl\u0131k Bazda\n<ul>\n<li>En y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f %12.60 ile Giyim ve Ayakkab\u0131 grubunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/li>\n<li>Tek D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6steren grup -%1.48 ile G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz \u0130\u00e7ecekler grubu oldu.<\/li>\n<li>En b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 Giyim ve Ayakkab\u0131 grubundan geldi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Y\u0131ll\u0131k Bazda\n<ul>\n<li>En y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f % 12.84 ile Alkoll\u00fc \u0130\u00e7ecekler ve T\u00fct\u00fcn grubunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6steren harcama grubu olmazken en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f % 1.38 ile G\u0131da ve Alkols\u00fcz \u0130\u00e7ecekler grubunda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/li>\n<li>En b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 Konut grubundan geldi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-45280 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-katk\u0131.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe - katk\u0131\" width=\"656\" height=\"402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-katk\u0131.png 1018w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-katk\u0131-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-katk\u0131-768x471.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 656px) 100vw, 656px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nisan ay\u0131nda mevsimsel fakt\u00f6rler, \u00f6zellikle giyim ve ayakkab\u0131 grubundaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, ayl\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE \u00fczerinde bir miktar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkide bulundu. Ancak, temelde i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olarak enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam ediyor olmas\u0131 ve ve TL&#8217;deki toparlanman\u0131n nisan ay\u0131nda da devam etmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi katk\u0131yla bu mevsimsel etkilerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 telafi etti. Di\u011fer taraftan, \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerde ayl\u0131k bazda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131n gecikmeli kur etkisiyle birlikte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak, \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerdeki y\u00fcksek seyir devam etmekte.<\/p>\n<p>Nisan ay\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinin son d\u00f6nemlerde man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen belirgin iyile\u015fmenin devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi; 24 May\u0131s\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan May\u0131s ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme kapsam\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerinin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131nda TCMB&#8217;nin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ekstra bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a ve TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmenin seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, TCMB\u2019nin, bu ayki toplant\u0131 da faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 50 \u2013 75 bp indirime gitmesi beklenebilir. Fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerin y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve konjonkt\u00fcrel geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle 1 hafta vadeli repo faizinde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidilmesini beklemiyorum. \u00dcst bantta yap\u0131lacak indirimler bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn fonlama maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011finden, karar\u0131n piyasalara etkisini olumlu olarak de\u011ferlendiriyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Verinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da g\u00f6zlenen sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n, T\u00dcFE verisinden ziyade yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalardaki seyir ve yurti\u00e7inde k\u00e2r realizasyonu iste\u011finden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>May\u0131s 2016 T\u00dcFE verileri 3 Haziran 2016 tarihinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong><em>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi ayl\u0131k piyasa beklentilerinden (+ % 1.00) daha olumlu, benim beklentime (% 0.76) paralel % 0.78 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1352,1513,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362],"class_list":["post-45279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45279\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}