{"id":45263,"date":"2016-05-03T09:35:03","date_gmt":"2016-05-03T06:35:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=45263"},"modified":"2016-05-03T09:44:11","modified_gmt":"2016-05-03T06:44:11","slug":"endeksin-aradigi-ruzgar-enflasyondan-gelir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/endeksin-aradigi-ruzgar-enflasyondan-gelir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Erol G\u00fcrcan &#8211; Endeksin arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fczgar enflasyondan gelir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Nisan 2016 Enflasyon verileri saat 10:00&#8217;da T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (T\u00dc\u0130K)&#8217;n\u00fcn internet sitesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3799669610\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>Piyasadaki anketlere<a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda % 1.00 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek (Mart 2016: -%0.04), y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 6.79&#8217;a gerilemesi bekleniyor (Mart 2016: % 7.46).<\/li>\n<li>Nisan ay\u0131 TCMB Beklenti Anketi<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a>&#8216;ne g\u00f6re ise beklenti T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda % 0.92 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/li>\n<li>Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerini ve mevcut e\u011filimleri dikkate alarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m hesaplamalara g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin ayl\u0131k bazda % 0.76, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda % 6.54 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyorum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45264 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe\" width=\"549\" height=\"247\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe.png 549w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-300x135.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yurti\u00e7inde haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli verisi bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Nisan ay\u0131 enflasyon verileri. Son aylarda T\u00dcFE&#8217;de g\u00f6zlenen iyile\u015fmenin s\u00fcrmesi, para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme kapsam\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz indirimlerinin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131nda TCMB&#8217;nin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir. Piyasadaki anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bakarak % 0.90 &#8211; 1.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda gelecek her rakam, faiz indirimi beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini sa\u011flayarak piyasa faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesini ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k hisseleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Borsa \u0130stanbul endeksinin y\u00fckselmesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00dcFE, mart ay\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ayl\u0131k bazda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oranda gerilemi\u015fti. Nisan ay\u0131nda mevsimsel fakt\u00f6rler, \u00f6zellikle giyim ve ayakkab\u0131 grubundaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, ayl\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE \u00fczerinde bir miktar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkide bulunabilir. Ancak, temelde i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olarak enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadede devam edece\u011finin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ve TL&#8217;deki toparlanman\u0131n nisan ay\u0131nda da devam etmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n verece\u011fi katk\u0131yla mevsimsel etkilerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n telafi edilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-senaryo.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-45265 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-senaryo.png\" alt=\"t\u00fcfe senaryo\" width=\"489\" height=\"122\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-senaryo.png 489w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/t\u00fcfe-senaryo-300x75.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 489px) 100vw, 489px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Enflasyon Nedir?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon, fiyatlar genel d\u00fczeyinin s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesidir. T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan t\u00fcketicilerin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimleri \u00f6l\u00e7en T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ile hesaplan\u0131r. T\u00dcFE hesab\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00fclkenin genelini temsil eden \u00f6rnek kitlenin bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde hangi mal ve hizmete y\u00f6nelik ne kadar harcama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 baz al\u0131n\u0131p, harcama yap\u0131lan \u00fcr\u00fcn gruplar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilerek bir sepet olu\u015fturulur. Bu sepet i\u00e7in bir ay i\u00e7inde yap\u0131lan harcaman\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan harcamaya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde olarak ne kadar y\u00fcksek (veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) oldu\u011fu y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Neden \u00d6nemli?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon, bireylerin ve firmalar\u0131n gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak uzun vadeli kararlar almalar\u0131n\u0131 engeller; bireylerin ve firmalar\u0131n birikimlerini \u00fcretken olmayan d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n gibi alanlara y\u00f6neltmelerine neden olur. Enflasyon sonucunda olu\u015fan belirsizlik i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n verimli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyerek toplumdaki g\u00fcven duygusunun azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131na neden olur ve yoksulla\u015fmay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc olumsuz etkileyen enflasyon, \u00fclkeye gelen yabanc\u0131 sermayenin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini bozar ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m, t\u00fcketim ve tasarrufa y\u00f6nelik kararlar\u0131nda dikkate almaya gerek duymad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden fiyat istikrar\u0131; s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ekonomik istikrar ve toplumsal refah i\u00e7in bir \u00f6n ko\u015fuldur. Fiyat istikrar\u0131yla enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin ortadan kalmas\u0131; ekonomide karar alan t\u00fcm birimlerinin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerini daha kolay ay\u0131rt etmelerini ve daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 karar almalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Temel amac\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak olan TCMB\u2019nin faiz kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkilidir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2966781279\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> Anadolu Ajans\u0131 ve Foreks Anketleri<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Beklenti Anketi, her ay itibar\u0131yla 81 \u2019i finansal sekt\u00f6r, 17 \u2019si reel sekt\u00f6r, 9 \u2019u yabanc\u0131 finansal kurulu\u015f uzmanlar\u0131ndan, 5 \u2019i ise profesyonellerden olu\u015fan 112 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131ya g\u00f6nderilmektedir.\u00a0 Beklentiler, her de\u011fi\u015fken i\u00e7in hesaplanan uygun ortalamay\u0131 ifade etmektedir. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131 Beklenti Anketi, 72 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015f olup, sonu\u00e7lar t\u00fcm kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yan\u0131tlar\u0131 toplula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nisan 2016 Enflasyon verileri saat 10:00&#8217;da T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (T\u00dc\u0130K)&#8217;n\u00fcn internet sitesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasadaki anketlere[1] g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin Nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda % 1.00 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1352,1513,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362],"class_list":["post-45263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45263\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}