{"id":45249,"date":"2016-05-02T22:29:29","date_gmt":"2016-05-02T19:29:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=45249"},"modified":"2016-05-03T01:41:30","modified_gmt":"2016-05-02T22:41:30","slug":"fed-ne-zaman-faiz-artirir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-ne-zaman-faiz-artirir\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Ne Zaman Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli veriler vard\u0131. En \u00f6nemlisi 2016 birinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisiydi ve ABD ekonomisi birinci \u00e7eyrekte %0.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/strong> <\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2070227109\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunun en az %0.7-0.9 aras\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ciddi bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyeye gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle piyasalar FED\u2019in kolay kolay faiz art\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.\u00a0 A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik ABD\u2019deki \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemler itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45250\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-gdp-growth.png\" alt=\"USA gdp growth\" width=\"526\" height=\"260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-gdp-growth.png 792w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-gdp-growth-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-gdp-growth-768x380.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 526px) 100vw, 526px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Kaynak: <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?graph_id=304359\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?graph_id=304359#<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Fakat bu grafikte \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 baz\u0131 ili\u015fkiler de bulunuyor. 2014 1. \u00c7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde -0.92 gelmi\u015f (\u00c7ok a\u011f\u0131r k\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131 vard\u0131) ve izleyen \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 4.56\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2015 birinci \u00e7eyrekte ise y\u00fczde 0.6 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f ama ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3.92 b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmu\u015ftu. \u015eimdi ise birinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 0.5 gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131, \u201cArt\u0131k FED faiz art\u0131ramaz\u201d beklentisi yarat\u0131rken, acaba 2. \u00c7eyrek verisi ne gelecek? Bir z\u0131plama olursa, piyasalar bir anda terse d\u00f6nebilir mi?\u00a0 Bu arada 2016\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde der sert k\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 vard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Elbette ki piyasalar terse d\u00f6nebilir ama 2. \u00c7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bizler yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak Temmuz ay\u0131 sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. Yani o tarihe daha \u00e7oook var. Bu nedenle piyasa bu t\u00fcr bir riski g\u00f6zard\u0131 ediyor. Piyasa profesyonelleri b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini yaparken, en \u00e7ok \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelere bak\u0131yorlar. Bu \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler ise, PMI endeksleri, sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri, kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar vs\u2026 gibi bir\u00e7ok veriden olu\u015fuyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu verilerde genelde bir zay\u0131flama olmu\u015ftu ve bu y\u00fczden piyasalar ilk \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in sadece y\u00fczde 0.7 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyorlard\u0131, fakat b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nemli bir nokta daha var. ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi 3 defa a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Yani 2016\u2019n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak 2 tane daha b\u00fcy\u00fcm verisi revizyonu yap\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Zaman zaman bu revizyonlarda sert de\u011fi\u015fimler olabiliyor. Bu y\u00fczden piyasalar Temmuzu beklemeden bu revizyonlar\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 zamanda Nisan ile Haziran aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan PMI vs. gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri yak\u0131ndan takip edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck geldi? Sorusunun cevab\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45251\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-cons-and-inv.png\" alt=\"USA cons and inv\" width=\"537\" height=\"356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-cons-and-inv.png 802w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-cons-and-inv-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/USA-cons-and-inv-768x509.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 537px) 100vw, 537px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Kaynak: www.econoday.com<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3219311391\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 (Personal Consumption) gerilemi\u015f ama bu gerileme \u00f6yle \u00e7ok sert bir gerileme de\u011fil ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir gerileme diyebiliriz. Fakat, konut d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya yakla\u015fan bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Yani i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7ok sert bir gerileme yapm\u0131\u015f.\u00a0 NEDEN?<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Bunun en \u00f6nemli sebebi de, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme olabilir. Fakat sadece enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00fcy\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131t ara\u00e7lar\u0131, tar\u0131m makinalar\u0131, elektrik cihazlar\u0131 ve in\u015faat makinalar\u0131nda da gerileme var.\u00a0 \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte ne olur? Bilemiyoruz ama bu Nisan-Haziran d\u00f6neminde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ilgilendirecek veriler \u00e7ok daha dikkatle takip edilecektir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45252\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/CORE-PCE-USA.png\" alt=\"CORE PCE USA\" width=\"530\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/CORE-PCE-USA.png 699w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/CORE-PCE-USA-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve harcamalar verileri madalyonun bir y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Fakat FED\u2019in faiz karar\u0131 sadece b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizlik verisine ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011fil. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, enflasyon beklentileri ve enflasyondaki de\u011fi\u015fimler de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-45253\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/VAGSES-USA.png\" alt=\"VAGSES USA\" width=\"542\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/VAGSES-USA.png 698w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/VAGSES-USA-300x196.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 542px) 100vw, 542px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafik Econoday sitesi taraf\u0131ndan verilmi\u015f durumda. Burada ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu (PCE Core) ve ortalama saatlik \u00fccretler (Avg Hourly Earninsg) verisinin her ikisi birlikte veriliyor.\u00a0 FED faiz art\u0131rmaya karar vermek i\u00e7in\u00a0 %2 hedefi vermi\u015fti ya\u2026 \u0130\u015fte o hedefe bakarken PCE Core verisine bak\u0131yor. Yani bu veri %2\u2019yi ge\u00e7ecek olursa veya hedefe yakla\u015f\u0131rsa faiz art\u0131racak. Fakat grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere her iki veri de, 2015\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana (son 3-4 ayd\u0131r) y\u00fckselmiyor.\u00a0 Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu nedenle de zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.\u00a0 Her ne kadar bu enflasyon verileri ve \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi hafiflemi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte verilen \u00fccret ve maa\u015flar verisinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket var. Fakat hen\u00fcz 2014 sonunda art\u0131\u015f ivmesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Asl\u0131nda 2014\u2019ten beri \u00fccretler art\u0131yor ama 2015 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda bu art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4 seviyelerine kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fken, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriye g\u00f6re %4.7\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2104729150\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Sonu\u00e7\u00a0 olarak;<\/strong> FED, bu a\u015famada b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zland\u0131 diye faiz art\u0131rmaz. FED\u2019i yeniden harekete ge\u00e7irecek \u015fey, enflasyonda veya enflasyonist bekleyi\u015flerde belirgin bir \u015fekilde art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u00f6nce bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00f6nceki b\u00fcltenlerde ABD\u2019nin daha \u00f6nceki resesyonlardan sonra nas\u0131l faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin tarihsel bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 vermi\u015ftim \u0130lgilenenler 12-13-14-15 No\u2019lu b\u00fcltenleri okuyabilirler (<a href=\"https:\/\/yadi.sk\/d\/77fuEgzXkEGC8\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">B\u00fclten ar\u015fivine girmek i\u00e7in buray\u0131 t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z.<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli veriler vard\u0131. En \u00f6nemlisi 2016 birinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisiydi ve ABD ekonomisi birinci \u00e7eyrekte %0.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bunun&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1669,1741],"class_list":["post-45249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-fed-faiz-yukseltecek-mi","tag-fed-ne-zaman-faiz-artirir"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45249\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}