{"id":45192,"date":"2016-04-27T23:07:26","date_gmt":"2016-04-27T20:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=45192"},"modified":"2016-04-28T08:44:38","modified_gmt":"2016-04-28T05:44:38","slug":"ozel-sektor-borcu-ekonomiyi-etkiler-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ozel-sektor-borcu-ekonomiyi-etkiler-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r borcu ekonomiyi etkiler mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Z\u00fc\u011f\u00fcrt tesellisi diye bir deyim vard\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte tam da o noktaday\u0131z. Sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelen, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmseyen, \u2018bize bir \u015fey olmaz\u2019 mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla hatay\u0131 yapmakta \u0131srar eden bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc i\u00e7erisindeyiz.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2674621260\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kritik sorunlar\u0131ndan birini finans s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Ekonomiden Sorumlu Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in rasyolara at\u0131fta bulunarak \u2018bankalar\u0131n kredi verecek paras\u0131 kalmad\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc bile umursamayacak kadar garip bir ruh hali i\u00e7indeyiz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer bir \u00fclkenin insanlar\u0131 borcunu bor\u00e7la finanse ediyorsa ve daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc bu mikroda \u015firketlerinin, makroda da ekonomisinin yap\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa, kara kara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcp, \u00e7are aramas\u0131 gerekir. Fakat \u00fczerimize \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f cahil cesaretiyle \u2018bug\u00fcn\u00fc de atlatt\u0131k\u2019 oynuyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani net zarar\u0131 368 milyar dolar. Kimsenin umursamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir de i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 var. Onun da ad\u0131 i\u00e7\u2026 Ne kadar\u0131 i\u00e7erideki yabanc\u0131lara bor\u00e7lan\u0131ld\u0131 net ortaya konulmuyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Paran\u0131n bol oldu\u011fu zamanlarda \u2018sorun edilmeyen finanse edilebilen cari a\u00e7\u0131k\u2019 bug\u00fcn \u2018d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u2019 diyerek \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00e7 malzemesi oluyorsa, ama ger\u00e7ekte i\u015f yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ve d\u00f6viz elde etmedi\u011finiz gerek\u00e7esiyle ekonominiz daral\u0131yorsa, bu sorundur.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Problem sadece i\u015f yapamamak de\u011fil. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fiddet&#8230; \u0130\u015fsizlikten Maliye\u2019nin gelir kayb\u0131na, i\u00e7 piyasa daralmas\u0131ndan firma iflaslar\u0131na kadar etki edecek; geni\u015f bir yelpazede okunmas\u0131 gereken t\u00fcrde sorundan bahsediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bor\u00e7 meselesini a\u00e7\u0131nca da iktidar\u0131n savunmas\u0131 hep ayn\u0131 oluyor. \u2018Bu bor\u00e7 \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, kamunun bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc o oranda de\u011fil.\u2019 Rakamlara bakarsan\u0131z o \u00f6yle. Elbette belediyelerden sosyal g\u00fcvenlik sistemine kadar hesaplanamayan risklerimizi g\u00f6rmezden gelirseniz&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn borcu \u00fclke ekonomisini etkilemez mi? T\u00fcrkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birli\u011fi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rifat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu\u2019nun Nisan 2016\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen EGD Kartepe Ekonomi Zirvesi\u2019ndeki aktar\u0131mlar\u0131 bunu do\u011frulam\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4105425834\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Vadesi gelmi\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda durum \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc. 2015 senesinden kalan 35 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki finansman ihtiyac\u0131na ilaveten, 172 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r borcu bulunuyor. Toplamda ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan nakit para ise, acil 207 milyar dolar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Daha \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc tablo bu borcun a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda&#8230; Kamunun 5 milyar dolar bulmas\u0131 gerekiyor; ki bulunur. \u2018Batan bats\u0131n\u2019 diye caka sat\u0131lan, ki asl\u0131nda sakat bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce olan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn vadesi gelen borcu ne? 59 milyar dolar. Rakam, y\u00fckselen dolar kuru ve azalan i\u015f hacminde \u00f6nemli bir problem.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama as\u0131l konu\u015fulmayan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 108 milyar dolarl\u0131k mali sekt\u00f6r borcu. Yani toplam borcun i\u00e7inde, reel sekt\u00f6rle mali sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda risk, bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Reel sekt\u00f6r batarsa, \u00fczerine bir 59 milyar dolar daha ilave edin; zira \u2018b\u0131y\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcrkler\u2019in rakamlar\u0131 me\u00e7hul. Tamam\u0131 bile olsa, \u2018neyse para batt\u0131\u2019 diyen \u00e7\u0131kmaz. Arac\u0131lar vas\u0131tas\u0131yla talep eder.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi bir de durum tespiti payla\u015fal\u0131m. Rapor Fitch\u2019e ait ve \u015f\u00f6yle diyor:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1459374384\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u2026k\u00fcresel belirsizliklerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir ortamda, geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131nda bu \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin de\u011fer kaybetmesinin, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomileri, finansal sistemleri ve \u00fclke notlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki riskleri artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Raporda T\u00fcrkiye ile birlikte Brezilya, Hindistan, \u00c7in, Endonezya, Meksika, Rusya ve G\u00fcney Afrika da de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\u00a0De\u011ferlendirilen 8 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r d\u00f6viz borcunun GSY\u0130H&#8217;ye oran\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu \u00fclke y\u00fczde 41 ile T\u00fcrkiye olurken, 8 \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz borcunun GSY\u0130H&#8217;ye oran\u0131n\u0131n medyan de\u011feri y\u00fczde 20 oldu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz borcunun en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu \u00fclke y\u00fczde 37 ile Rusya olurken, \u00c7in&#8217;de bu oran y\u00fczde 10 ile 8 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede bulunuyor.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yani borcun \u00e7evrilmesiyle ilgili bir a\u00e7maza dikkat \u00e7ekilirken, sorunun daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilece\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor.\u00a0 \u015eimdi soru \u015fu: Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6deme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp krize girerse, \u00fclke ekonomisi etkilenmez mi? 2001 krizinin bankac\u0131l\u0131ktaki 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131r\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Foto\u011fraf buyken, FED\u2019in ne yapaca\u011f\u0131, sadece zamanlamay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir ve faturan\u0131n artacak boyutunu belirler. Temel sorun, bug\u00fcne kadar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hatalarda gizli. Sizce de art\u0131k siyaset\u00e7ilik oynamay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p, olay\u0131 ciddiye alman\u0131n zaman\u0131 gelmedi mi?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Z\u00fc\u011f\u00fcrt tesellisi diye bir deyim vard\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte tam da o noktaday\u0131z. Sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelen, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmseyen, \u2018bize bir \u015fey olmaz\u2019 mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla hatay\u0131 yapmakta \u0131srar eden bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-45192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}