{"id":4497,"date":"2011-08-26T09:49:52","date_gmt":"2011-08-26T06:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4497"},"modified":"2011-08-26T09:50:04","modified_gmt":"2011-08-26T06:50:04","slug":"yavaslama-cikti-acigi-ve-tcmb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yavaslama-cikti-acigi-ve-tcmb\/","title":{"rendered":"Yava\u015flama, \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve TCMB"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son y\u0131llarda iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar ekonomiyi izlerken &#8220;\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221;\u00a0 (output gap) ad\u0131n\u0131 verdikleri analitik arac\u0131 daha s\u0131k kullanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonominin sahip oldu\u011fu \u00fcretici kapasite ve teknoloji d\u00fczeyi ile \u00fcretebilece\u011fi potansiyel \u00fcretim ile fiilen yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcretim aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1208162711\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Potansiyel ve fiili durum e\u015fit ise \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r oldu\u011fu kabul ediliyor. Ekonominin t\u00fcm imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 gerekti\u011fi bi\u00e7imde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131, yapabilece\u011fi \u00fcretimin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor bu.<\/p>\n<p>Fiili \u00fcretimin potansiyelin gerisinde kalmas\u0131 ekonominin mevcut olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n elverdi\u011fi \u00fcretimi fiilen yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani bir \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Uygulamada \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiili \u00fcretimin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ya da gerilemesi sonucu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul ediliyor. Bu nedenle fiili \u00fcretimin (GSMH) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yava\u015flatacak veya geriletecek\u00a0 arz ya da talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 besleyen \u00f6nemli etkenler olarak kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun tersi, yani fiili \u00fcretimin potansiyelin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yani bir t\u00fcr \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fazlas\u0131 (!) olu\u015fmas\u0131 reel olarak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ko\u015fullar b\u00f6yle bir durumu dayatt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ekonomi nominal olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcyor,enflasyon h\u0131zlan\u0131yor \u00e7o\u011fu kez d\u0131\u015f dengesi de bozuluyor.. Bu durum ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 analiznini iktisat politikalar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de talep y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir analiz arac\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Nitekim, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 analizi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00a0 Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 kurgular\u0131nda \u00f6nemli rol oynamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomide pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme marj\u0131 oldu\u011funu, toplam talebin geni\u015fletilmesi halinde ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nmadan b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u00a0 evelerinde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapan\u0131yor, bunun \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ilince\u00a0 \u0131s\u0131nma i\u015faretleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile\u00a0 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da b\u00fcy\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve bir parasal gev\u015feme marj\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kapan\u0131yor olmas\u0131 da parasal s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma gere\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu kaba analizi kendi ko\u015fullar\u0131m\u0131za uygulayarak TCMB&#8217;nin para politikas\u0131\u00a0 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerini daha nesnel bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4197759131\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisini tamamlamak \u00fczereyiz. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan daha farkl\u0131 bir ekonomik tablo ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Birinci \u00e7eyrekte ana konumuz ekonominin h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiydi. Y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015ftaki\u00a0 sa\u011fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak okuyorduk.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tablo de\u011fi\u015fti. \u0130lgin\u00e7 olan nokta birinci \u00e7eyrekteki olumlu tablonun adeta iki viteste de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131. Daha ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonunu g\u00f6rmeden ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve h\u0131zla so\u011futulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Kimileri h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ekonomiyi \u0131s\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatm\u0131\u015f,\u00a0 talep bask\u0131sn\u0131n etkili olamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. Enflasyon g\u00f6rece sakin say\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131 ama cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla geni\u015flemesi \u0131s\u0131nma i\u015fareti olarak\u00a0 de\u011ferlendiriliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu evrede Merkez Bankas\u0131 ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131 sav\u0131na pek s\u0131cak bakmad\u0131. Para politikas\u0131nda genel bir daralma yaratacak bir uygulamaya gitmedi.\u00a0 Tersine, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine neden oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u00a0 k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fini cayd\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Banka mevduat kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek de kredi hacmini, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla talebi\u00a0 kontrol alt\u0131na almay\u0131 hedefledi.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2518755517\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Daha akt\u00f6rler bu \u00f6zg\u00fcn politika tasar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kavray\u0131p, i\u00e7selle\u015ftirmeden ekonomi vites de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Yeni veriler ve analizler b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ekonominin\u00a0 yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, (e\u011fer varsa) \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n da h\u0131zla so\u011fumaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin sorunu olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gittik\u00e7e sakinle\u015fece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyordu bu.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullar\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011ferlendirdi, proaktif davranarak politikas\u0131n\u0131 uygun y\u00f6nde yeniden kurgulad\u0131. Yava\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6ren Banka para politikas\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. Talebi artt\u0131racak bir para politikas\u0131 tasar\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131. Faiz oranlar\u0131 faiz koridorunu daraltacak, sermaye giri\u015fini \u00f6zendirecek, bankalar\u0131n likidite imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletecek y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015ftirildi. Ekonomiyi yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme ray\u0131na oturtma amac\u0131yla parasal gev\u015femeye gidildi.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme-\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ili\u015fkilerinden\u00a0 hareketle yap\u0131lan analiz Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullara do\u011fru\u00a0 tepkiler verdi\u011fini, uygun politika ge\u00e7i\u015fleri yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son y\u0131llarda iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar ekonomiyi izlerken &#8220;\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221;\u00a0 (output gap) ad\u0131n\u0131 verdikleri analitik arac\u0131 daha s\u0131k kullanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonominin sahip oldu\u011fu \u00fcretici kapasite ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4497\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}