{"id":4487,"date":"2011-08-26T09:46:14","date_gmt":"2011-08-26T06:46:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4487"},"modified":"2011-08-26T09:46:32","modified_gmt":"2011-08-26T06:46:32","slug":"tatil-oncesi-karar-vermelisiniz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tatil-oncesi-karar-vermelisiniz\/","title":{"rendered":"Tatil \u00d6ncesi Karar Vermelisiniz!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn finansal piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik\u00a0<span><strong>g\u00fcn<\/strong><\/span>. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da son zamanlarda gittik\u00e7e pop\u00fcler olan Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Jackson Hole kasabas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma bekleniyor. Bizde de uzun bayram tatilinin \u00f6ncesindeki son \u201ctam\u201d i\u015fg\u00fcn\u00fc. Her ne kadar Pazartesi yar\u0131m g\u00fcn piyasalarda i\u015flem yap\u0131lcak olsa da hem hacim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacakt\u0131r, hem de i\u015flem zaman\u0131 k\u0131sa.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2560296687\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemi\u00a0<span><strong>son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u201cTahvil al\u0131m\u0131na devam\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131 bu toplant\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>3. Bedava\u00a0<span><strong>Para<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Paketi\u2019ni bekleyen piyasalar istediklerini alacaklar m\u0131, yoksa 3. BPP bir ba\u015fka bahara m\u0131 kalacak bug\u00fcn bizim piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z kapand\u0131ktan sonra netle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcne kadar\u00a0<span><strong>bu<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0beklenti piyasalar\u0131 ayakta tuttu. En az\u0131ndan bu \u201cumudu al\u0131p-satanlar\u201d borsalar\u0131 az da y\u00fckseltebildiler.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yakalanamad\u0131. Neden derseniz, piyasalar Fed\u2019in\u00a0<span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bir paket \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 arzu etseler de asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z Fed\u2019den bir paket gelme ihtimalini n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funun da fark\u0131ndalar.<\/p>\n<p>Benim beklentim Fed\u2019in 3. BPP gibi \u201ckapsaml\u0131\u201d bir paket a\u00e7\u0131klamayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bunun varsay\u0131m\u0131m arkas\u0131nda iki temel varsay\u0131m var. \u0130lki Fed\u2019in \u201cdeflasyonist bir ortamda olmad\u0131k\u00e7a yeni bir paket a\u00e7\u0131klamayaca\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6ylemleri ki halen daha ABD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de olsa enflasyon var! \u0130kincisi ise \u00f6nceki iki paket i\u015fe yarad\u0131 m\u0131 ki yenisi yarayacak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi. Fed\u2019in de benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla \u00e7ok fazla bir \u015fey vaat etmeden piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcre\u011fini serinletmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>Beklentilerin bozulmas\u0131 hem alt\u0131na hem de borsalara sat\u0131\u015f getirdi. Her ne kadar alt\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 Chicago Borsas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrat teminatlar\u0131n\u0131 5.500 dolardan 7.000 dolara y\u00fckseltmesine ya da hedge fon sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u011flayan olsa da bana g\u00f6re ger\u00e7ek sebepler Fed beklentilerindeki bozulmas\u0131 ve daha da \u00f6nemli kararl\u0131 \u201ck\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131d\u0131r\u201d. (Alt\u0131na dair d\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda 1.700 dolar seviyelerinin \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim, 1.703 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc!)<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalarda kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcn de artarak devam edecektir. Oynakl\u0131k t\u00fcm piyasalarda artacakt\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle uzun Ramazan Bayram\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yerel oyuncular\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta Fed sonras\u0131nda piyasalardaki hareketlerin sertle\u015fece\u011fini ak\u0131llar\u0131nda bulundurmalar\u0131nda fayda var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-903511054\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Benim temel beklentim, ABD piyasalar\u0131nda yeni bir dip g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi (Dow Jones\u2019ta 10.000 +\/- 250 puan) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p>Zamanlamas\u0131 Fed\u2019in kararlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. B\u00f6ylesi bir hareket bizim borsam\u0131z\u0131 da mutlaka etkileyecektir. Bayram tatilini hisse senedi poziyonu ile ge\u00e7irmeyi planlayanlar\u0131n Fed\u2019in kararlar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 iyi tartarak bug\u00fcn\u00fc kapatmalar\u0131nda fayda var!<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131nda d\u00fcn bir gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Teknik olarak \u00f6nemli olan 1.7550 seviyesine inildi. Bayram d\u00f6nemindeki 9 g\u00fcnl\u00fck faiz avantaj\u0131ndan yararlanmak isteyenlerin, Say\u0131n Babacan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri ba\u015flad\u0131 s\u00f6yleminden de g\u00fc\u00e7 alarak; d\u00fcn \u00f6\u011fleden sonra yapt\u0131klar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n etkisi oldu. \u0130htimaldir ki bug\u00fcn bu sat\u0131\u015flara yenileri eklenebilir ve belki de 1.7250 seviyeleri test edilebilir. Bu seviyelere inilecek olur ise hem yukar\u0131lardan satm\u0131\u015f olanlar\u0131n, hem de bayram tatili boyunca d\u00f6viz \u00f6demek zorunda olanlar\u0131n risklerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 bu seviyelerden kapatmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeleri yerinde olacakt\u0131r!<br \/>\nHat\u0131rlatmakta fayda var; Fed\u2019den 3.BPP gelmeyecek olur ise dolar\u0131n, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girebiliriz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-163891193\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn finansal piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik\u00a0g\u00fcn. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da son zamanlarda gittik\u00e7e pop\u00fcler olan Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Jackson Hole kasabas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4487\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}