{"id":4456,"date":"2011-08-25T09:38:17","date_gmt":"2011-08-25T06:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4456"},"modified":"2011-08-25T09:38:29","modified_gmt":"2011-08-25T06:38:29","slug":"ne-zaman-konusmamak-gerekiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ne-zaman-konusmamak-gerekiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Ne Zaman Konu\u015fmamak Gerekiyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuru hakk\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmamalar\u0131 gerekir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"haberDetayYazi\">\n<p>D\u00f6viz kuru hakk\u0131nda, -\u00f6zellikle belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamlarda- bizim gibi \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n konu\u015fmamalar\u0131 gerekti\u011finden s\u00f6z ediyordum. Hele d\u00f6viz kuru hakk\u0131nda bir d\u00fczey ima etmek, b\u00f6yle ortamlarda do\u011fru de\u011fildi. \u2018Neden konu\u015fulmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi\u2019 hakk\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimi ele alan iki yaz\u0131 yazd\u0131m son bir hafta i\u00e7inde. Bu sefer \u2018ne zaman konu\u015fulur, ne zaman konu\u015fulmaz\u2019 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ele alaca\u011f\u0131m konuyu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kur hakk\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir zaman konu\u015fulmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemedi\u011fim ortada. Konu\u015fulacak d\u00f6nemler de olabilir. Ama ne zaman konu\u015fulmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi para otoritelerinin kafalar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k olmal\u0131. Aksi takdirde \u00e7ok tehlikeli sularda y\u00fczmeye ba\u015flarlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-967018567\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ne zaman konu\u015fulmaz? \u00c7ok net bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kendilerini g\u00fcvenli limanlara atma e\u011filiminin artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde bizim gibi \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kur hakk\u0131nda hele \u2018d\u00fczey\u2019 ima eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmamalar\u0131 gerekir. G\u00fcvenli limanlara yelken a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, finansal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risksiz \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvillerine y\u00f6nelmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu ko\u015fullarda g\u00fcvensiz olarak addedilen \u00fclkelerin \u2018g\u00fcven\u2019 \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde ald\u0131klar\u0131 konuma ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak mali varl\u0131klar\u0131 elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda elde edilen yerli para miktar\u0131 d\u00f6vize \u00e7evrilip risksiz \u00fclkelerin tahvili sat\u0131n al\u0131n\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7ta \u2018\u00e7\u0131k\u0131lan\u2019 \u00fclkelerde kur artma e\u011filimine giriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kurdaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n temel nedeni, risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde a\u00e7\u0131k: Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalma. Kurun art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u015fik\u00e2yetiyseniz \u015fu soruya yan\u0131t bulman\u0131z gerekir: Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalma e\u011filimine kar\u015f\u0131 ne yapabilirim?<\/p>\n<p>Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalman\u0131n nedeni \u015fu s\u0131ralarda oldu\u011fu gibi k\u00fcresel olabilir. T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakay\u0131m duruma. Ne yapacak Merkez i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in? Temelde yapabilece\u011fi bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Oturup AB\u2019nin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltecek hali yok. Ya da ABD\u2019yi tekrar resesyona sokmama yetene\u011fi de yok. Elbette i\u015ftahtaki azalma nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de boy g\u00f6sterebilecek d\u00f6viz likiditesi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in yapabilece\u011fi var: Bankalara d\u00f6viz depo vermeyi kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak, d\u00fczenli d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihaleleri a\u00e7mak, d\u00f6viz cinsi zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek gibi. Bunlar\u0131 yapmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00dczerinde durdu\u011fumun bu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Yak\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z geli\u015fmenin (kurdaki art\u0131\u015f) arkas\u0131ndaki temel nedeni (i\u015ftahtaki azalma) kald\u0131racak bir \u015fey yapman\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011filse, bir \u015fey yapmazs\u0131n\u0131z. Bu kadar a\u00e7\u0131k. Yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131z o geli\u015fmenin do\u011furabilece\u011fi olumsuz etkileri azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r (sisteme d\u00f6viz likiditesi sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z).<\/p>\n<p>Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalma yerel nedenle olabilir. Yapman\u0131z gereken yine ayn\u0131d\u0131r: Risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki nedenleri saptamak. Nedenleri ortadan kald\u0131rabilecek konumda de\u011filseniz, yine likidite \u00f6nlemlerini al\u0131r ama kuru hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fmazs\u0131n\u0131z. Mesela, maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n giderek bozulmas\u0131 nedeniyle risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131 art\u0131yor ve d\u00f6vize olan talep tetikleniyorsa maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 Merkez\u2019in d\u00fczeltemeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 yasan\u0131z \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde h\u00fck\u00fcmete yapars\u0131n\u0131z. Gerekirse kamuoyuna da durumu anlat\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z. Ama kurun olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi d\u00fczeyin, o andaki d\u00fczey olmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyemezsiniz. O d\u00fczey \u2018hak edilmi\u015f\u2019 bir d\u00fczeydir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc. Peki d\u00f6viz kuru hakk\u0131nda hi\u00e7 mi konu\u015fulmaz? Konu\u015fulur elbette. S\u00f6z uzad\u0131, soruyu yan\u0131tlamak ba\u015fka yaz\u0131ya kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuru hakk\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapmamalar\u0131 gerekir. D\u00f6viz kuru hakk\u0131nda, -\u00f6zellikle belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamlarda- bizim gibi \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4456\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}