{"id":4444,"date":"2011-08-25T09:31:23","date_gmt":"2011-08-25T06:31:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4444"},"modified":"2011-08-25T09:31:34","modified_gmt":"2011-08-25T06:31:34","slug":"ilk-yarida-istihdam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ilk-yarida-istihdam\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130lk Yar\u0131da \u0130stihdam"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>y\u00fcksek<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0volatilite devam ediyor. Ani ve sert hareketler borsalar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girdi\u011fine i\u015farettir. Beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fczeltme g\u00fcn\u00fc geldi mi? En az\u0131ndan iyice yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f gibi duruyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2840240979\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mali piyasalar\u0131n dikkati gene Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019ye odakland\u0131. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma heyecanla bekleniyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez ortal\u0131\u011fa\u00a0<span><strong>para<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sa\u00e7ma karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131? Ne diyelim; umut zenginin ekme\u011fi&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eride, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu ola\u011fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz\u00a0<span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmedi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikaya g\u00fcvendi\u011fini vurguluyor. Gere\u011finde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da gev\u015fetece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada\u00a0<span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0para politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tav\u0131rda ciddi de\u011fi\u015fim var. Y\u00fcksek faiz lobisi h\u0131zla eriyor. Yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ele\u015ftirenlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc destek veriyor. \u201cPardon, yan\u0131ld\u0131k\u201d diyenler bile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Sevindiricidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6zeti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hanehalk\u0131 \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 may\u0131s sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Nisan-haziran d\u00f6nemini kaps\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 itibariyle istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik verileri kesinle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2008 krizi sonras\u0131nda h\u0131zla toparland\u0131 ve giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekorlar\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131. Beklenece\u011fi gibi, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 istihdam ve i\u015fsizli\u011fi de olumlu etkiledi.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn temel istihdam g\u00f6stergelerine uzun d\u00f6nemde bakmak istiyorum. Yazl\u0131kta tablo haz\u0131rlamak zordu. Okula d\u00f6n\u00fcnce aradaki fark\u0131 kapatma imk\u00e2n\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Bu\u00a0<span><strong>f\u0131rsat\u0131<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tablo ile de\u011ferlendiriyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1137315434\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tablo 2005 ilk \u00e7eyrekten bug\u00fcne alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131 kaps\u0131yor. 2005, 2008 ve 2011\u2019i ele al\u0131yor. Son \u00fc\u00e7 s\u00fctunda milyon ki\u015fi olarak de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6steriliyor. \u0130lki (2005-08) k\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesidir. \u0130kincisine (2008-11) k\u00fcresel kriz de dahildir. Sonuncusu (2005-11) d\u00f6nemin t\u00fcm\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Tablodaki t\u00fcm bilgiyi yaz\u0131 ile tekrarlamam m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Baz\u0131 ana e\u011filimlere de\u011finmekle yetinece\u011fim. Merakl\u0131 okuyucular\u0131ma tablonun ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 incelemelerini tavsiye ederim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130yi haber-k\u00f6t\u00fc haber<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130yi haberle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Son alt\u0131 y\u0131lda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 3.8 milyon ki\u015fiye istihdam sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, ilk d\u00f6nemden ikincisine yarat\u0131lan istihdam iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nemlisi, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fc (3.6 milyon) \u00fccretli istihdamd\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2744466092\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Alt\u0131 y\u0131lda i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 sadece 400 bin artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 2005\u2019ten 2011\u2019e i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 0,2 puan d\u00fc\u015ferken kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 3,3 puan y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. \u00dccretli istihdam oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f 4,4 puana ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunlar fevkalade olumlu geli\u015fmelerdir.<\/p>\n<p>Ya k\u00f6t\u00fc haberler? Biri tar\u0131mda istihdam\u0131n artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nem iyi: 400 bin azal\u0131yor. Ama son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda 900 bin art\u0131\u015f var. \u201cTar\u0131msalla\u015fma mucizesi (!)\u201d demi\u015ftim. Di\u011feri, sanayi istihdam\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Kriz \u00f6ncesi 400 bin ki\u015fi iken sonras\u0131nda 200 bine geriliyor. \u0130kisi de gelecekle ilgili ciddi soru i\u015faretleri i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli e\u011filimlere ayr\u0131ca bakaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda\u00a0y\u00fcksek\u00a0volatilite devam ediyor. Ani ve sert hareketler borsalar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girdi\u011fine i\u015farettir. Beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fczeltme g\u00fcn\u00fc geldi mi? En az\u0131ndan iyice yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4444"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4444\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}