{"id":4424,"date":"2011-08-24T11:05:33","date_gmt":"2011-08-24T08:05:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4424"},"modified":"2011-08-24T11:12:48","modified_gmt":"2011-08-24T08:12:48","slug":"doviz-kuru-mudahaleleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/doviz-kuru-mudahaleleri\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f6viz Kuru M\u00fcdahaleleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile ilgili davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir yaz\u0131 yazd\u0131m. De\u011fi\u015fik tepkiler ald\u0131m. Olumlu kar\u015f\u0131layan da oldu ele\u015ftirel bakanlar da.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2468235646\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin, Radikal gazetesindeki k\u00f6\u015fesinde Servet Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m b\u00f6yle bir ele\u015ftirel tepkiyi dile getirdi. Benim yaz\u0131ma da referansla, Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebileceklerini, \u00f6zellikle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda b\u00f6ylesi m\u00fcdahalelerin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz\u00a0 oldu\u011funu, bu ko\u015fullarda Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ulusal paran\u0131n de\u011ferini savunmalar\u0131n\u0131n gerekti\u011fini, buna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Buradan benim Merkezin kura m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fum izlenimi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>San\u0131r\u0131m ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131da ben murad\u0131m\u0131 tam olarak anlatamad\u0131m. Benim, prensip olarak, Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuruna m\u00fcdahale etmeleri ile ilgili bir sorunum yok. Belli ko\u015fullarda, gerekli g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinde\u00a0 Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131k ya da \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde d\u00f6viz kuruna m\u00fcdahale edebilecekleri kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Genel olarak kura m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011filim ama m\u00fcdahale t\u00fcrlerinin ay\u0131d edilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. San\u0131r\u0131m b\u00f6yle bir ayr\u0131m yapmadan tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor bu konu.Bu durumda da Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur m\u00fcdahalesini ayn\u0131 ba\u011flam i\u00e7inde tart\u0131\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n nereden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebilmek i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n iki farkl\u0131 t\u00fcr kur m\u00fcdahalesini ay\u0131rt etmemiz gerekiyor. Bunlardan birisi Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n gerek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zaman ve ko\u015fullarda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na girip, kura m\u00fcdahale etmesidir. \u0130kinci t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahale ise\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k veya \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde bir kur belirlemesi\u00a0 ve kur bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu kuru savunmak amac\u0131yla m\u00fcdahale etmesidir.Bu iki t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahale hem niteli\u011fi hem amac\u0131 hem de sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 itibariyle birbirinden farkl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Birinci t\u00fcrde m\u00fcdahalede\u00a0 kuru belli d\u00fczeyde tutmak, bu d\u00fczeyi\u00a0 savunmak gibi bir ama\u00e7 yoktur. Daha \u00e7ok kuru belli bir\u00a0 hareket band\u0131nda tutmak niyetiyle m\u00fcdahale yap\u0131l\u0131r. Uygulamada bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahalelerin \u00e7o\u011fu kez kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda oynakl\u0131k band\u0131n\u0131 daraltmak amac\u0131yla yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahalenin para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir sonucu olmaz ya da istenen, kontrol edilebilen sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131kar ortaya.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1312714554\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z bizim Merkez Bankam\u0131z da fiili m\u00fcdahalelerinde amac\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dizginlemek oldu\u011funu, belirli bir kur hedefinin s\u00f6zkonusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 israrla vurgulamaktad\u0131r. Bunun alt metni d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edilmekle birlikte para politikas\u0131nda (faiz) her hangi bir sapman\u0131n s\u00f6zkonusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde okunur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahale ise Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurunu kendi belirledi\u011fi d\u00fczeyde tutma iste\u011finden kaynaklan\u0131r. D\u00f6viz kurunu belirlemek ve gerekti\u011finde savunmak daha \u00e7ok\u00a0 sabit kur rejimlerinde izlenen bir politikad\u0131r.Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurunu belli bir d\u00fczeyde sabitler ve ancak kendisi uygun g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc noktada, uygun g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015ftirir. Sabit kur rejimlerinde etkin i\u015fleyen bir d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Merkezin kura fiili m\u00fcdahalesi olmaz. Genellikle bir paralel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 olu\u015fur. Sabitlenmi\u015f kur ile paralel piyasadaki d\u00f6viz fiyat\u0131 (karaborsa) fark\u0131 belli bir d\u00fczeye gelince Merkez\u00a0 do\u011frudan kuru de\u011fi\u015ftirerek m\u00fcdahale eder.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n belli bir kuru hedeflemesi, bunu piyasaya dayatmas\u0131\u00a0 ve kendi kuru bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiilen d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ederek kurunu savunmas\u0131 serbest kur rjimlerinde de uygulanan bir politikad\u0131r. Serbest kur rejiminde kur savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 m\u00fcdahalenin ola\u011fan d\u00f6viz kuru m\u00fcdahallerinden \u00f6nemli bir fark\u0131 bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahalelerin para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmas\u0131d\u0131r. Sermaye hareketlerinin serbest oldu\u011fu ortamda bu t\u00fcr bir kur politikas\u0131 uygulaman\u0131n etkin bir para politikas\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7meyi, yani faiz olu\u015fumunu piyasaya b\u0131rakmay\u0131 gerektirdi\u011fi bilinir.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim Servet Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m&#8217;\u0131n \u00f6rt\u00fck ele\u015ftirisine. Ele\u015ftiriye konu olan yaz\u0131m Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferine ili\u015fkin bir beyan\u0131ndan hareket ediyordu. Beyan bende adeta bir kur seviyesi hedeflendi\u011fi, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kur savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 d\u00f6viz politikas\u0131na yani ikinci t\u00fcr d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine \u00f6yk\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc izlenimi yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu e\u011filimi ele\u015ftiriyor ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordum. Yaz\u0131da Servet Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m&#8217;\u0131n tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 birinci t\u00fcrdeki, \u00e7o\u011funlukla oynakl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik\u00a0 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerine ili\u015fkin herhangi bir yorum ya da g\u00f6nderme yoktu. Farkl\u0131 bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordum. San\u0131r\u0131m beceremedim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3073233288\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile ilgili davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir yaz\u0131 yazd\u0131m. De\u011fi\u015fik tepkiler ald\u0131m. Olumlu kar\u015f\u0131layan da oldu ele\u015ftirel bakanlar da. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Radikal&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}