{"id":43688,"date":"2016-01-18T12:37:37","date_gmt":"2016-01-18T10:37:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43688"},"modified":"2016-01-18T12:37:35","modified_gmt":"2016-01-18T10:37:35","slug":"kara-pazartesi-olur-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kara-pazartesi-olur-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"Kara Pazartesi Olmad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>\u0130sterseniz k\u0131saca ge\u00e7en haftaya bir bakal\u0131m;<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-246104872\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan konulardan biri \u00c7in oldu. Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde \u00c7in MB ve Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlarla \u00c7in piyasalar\u0131nda bir miktar normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f vard\u0131 ama hala endi\u015feler devam ediyor. Bu y\u00fczden de g\u00f6zler \u00c7in\u2019de olmaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, &#8220;Burada temel konu, normalle\u015fmenin h\u0131z\u0131 olacak. Biz Fed&#8217;in de vurgulam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu gibi faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olmas\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fti\u011fine dair net kan\u0131tlara dayanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi konusunda hemfikiriz&#8221; dedi. IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ABD&#8217;de y\u00fcksek faizler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve Japonya&#8217;daki parasal geni\u015flemelerin dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015fe neden olabilece\u011fini, bu durumun da geli\u015fen \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u00a0\u201cGeli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok farkl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde \u00e7e\u015fitli say\u0131da riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Geli\u015fen piyasalarda \u00fclke, \u015firket ve banka reytingleri bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olmaya devam edecek\u201d dedi.\u00a0 Fakat, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in herhangi bir derecelendirme kurulu\u015fundan not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklemiyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc genelde emtia ve petrol \u00fcreticileri zor zamanlar ge\u00e7iriyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerinden biri de petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerdi. \u00d6zellikle de \u0130ran ile ABD\u2019Nin anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki ekonomik ambargolar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da \u00a0ihracata ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. \u00a0Ama \u00a0\u0130ran&#8217;\u0131n da ihracata ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle d\u00fc\u015fen petrol bu beklenti ger\u00e7ekle\u015fince 28 dolar seviyelerinde dip yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta bir\u00e7ok FED \u00fcyesi konu\u015ftu ve piyasalar bundan da etkilendi. Boston Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Eric Rosengren yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konu\u015fmada \u00c7in borsalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve di\u011fer fakt\u00f6rlerin &#8220;k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nemli derecede yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131&#8221; belirtti. Chicago Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Charles Evans da benzer \u015feyler s\u00f6yledi;\u00a0 \u00c7in\u2019de ve k\u00fcresel emtia piyasalar\u0131ndaki durumu &#8220;endi\u015fe verici&#8221; olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Evans bir di\u011fer endi\u015fesinin enflasyonun eskisi kadar iyi takip edilmedi\u011fi konusunda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken, Fed&#8217;in enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc hakk\u0131nda iyi bir fikre sahip olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na kadar zaman\u0131n ge\u00e7mesi gerekebilece\u011fini belirtti.\u00a0 Atlanta Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dennis Lockhart, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamada k\u0131smen \u00c7in&#8217;in ABD borsas\u0131na olan etkilerinden dolay\u0131 en az Nisan ay\u0131na kadar yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli veri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Dallas Fed&#8217;in ba\u015fkan\u0131 Robert Kaplan, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada \u00c7in ekonomisinin so\u011fudu\u011funa dair endi\u015felerle k\u00fcresel borsalardaki volatilite g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faizlerin bu y\u0131l d\u00f6rt kez art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n garanti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. St Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 James Bullard ise , enflasyon beklentilerinin gerilemeye devam etmesi halinde ileride yap\u0131lacak faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini belirtirken, Mart ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131n\u0131n verilmesi i\u00e7in Fed&#8217;in daha fazla veriye ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Yani Nisan ay\u0131na kadar FED&#8217;in yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller olarak alg\u0131lanabilir. \u015eu an FED \u00fcyeleri de uluslararas\u0131 geli\u015fmelerden etkileniyorlar ve her \u015feyin sarpa sarabilece\u011fini biliyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en \u00a0ABD Borsalar\u0131 Sert D\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Kara Pazartesi mi olacak?<br \/>\nHafta sonunda bana gelen bir mail bana bu soruyu soruyordu. \u00a0Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD borsa endeksleri sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130lk grafik DOW endeksini ikincisi ise S&amp;P500 endeksini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-256596906\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43689\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/dow-18-ocak.png\" alt=\"dow-18 ocak\" width=\"345\" height=\"228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/dow-18-ocak.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/dow-18-ocak-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43690\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/sp500-18-ocak.png\" alt=\"sp500-18 ocak\" width=\"345\" height=\"228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/sp500-18-ocak.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/sp500-18-ocak-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dow endeksi %2.39, S&amp;P500 endeksi ise %2.16 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131. Sizlere yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m g\u00fcnl\u00fck yorumlarda (www.bilgeyatirimci.com) d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda y\u00fcksek dalgalanma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. Bu dalgalanma devam ediyor ve devam edecek. En az\u0131ndan 26-27 Ocak tarihlerinde FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 olana ve FED\u2019in k\u0131sa a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 gelene kadar devam edebilir. ABD borsalar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ama bir g\u00fcn \u00f6ncesinde de y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla e\u011fer bu haftaya ba\u015flarken de bir anda yine y\u00fczde 2-3 y\u00fckseli\u015f olursa ya da tam\u00a0 tersi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olursa \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak gerekir. \u00d6nemli olan nokta, d\u0131\u015f borsalarda bu kadar sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olurken BIST-100\u2019\u00fcn 70 bin alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Grafiklerde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere hem dow endeksi hem de S&amp;P\u0131500 endeksi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli deste\u011fini k\u0131rd\u0131ktan sonra \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131yorlar.\u00a0E\u011fer bu hafta i\u00e7inde ABD borsalar\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazdaki dalgalanma y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ferse ve hacim zay\u0131flarsa diplerin olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0Bu sabah d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki ve dow ile S&amp;P500 future\u2019lar\u0131ndaki hareketler bizim borsam\u0131z\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirledi. Borsa a\u00e7\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce dow ve S&amp;P500 future&#8217;lar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fteydi ve biz de y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131k. Az \u00f6nce bu endeksler sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc biz de d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. \u015eimdi ise Dow ve S&amp;P future&#8217;Lar\u0131 sert yukar\u0131 harekete ba\u015flad\u0131lar, bizim endeks de buna az sonra kat\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43691\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/VIX-18-Ocak.png\" alt=\"VIX-18 Ocak\" width=\"345\" height=\"228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/VIX-18-Ocak.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/VIX-18-Ocak-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131dkai grafik VIX endeksini (korku endeksi) g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019de problemler ve deval\u00fcasyon oldu\u011fu s\u0131rada bu endeks 50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve dow endeksi 15.500\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na kadar d\u00fc\u015ferken, S&amp;P500 endeksi de 1870 seviyelerine kadar gerilemi\u015fti. \u015eu an VIX endeksi 30 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseldi. Yani Ge\u00e7en A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir durum de\u011fil ama ABD endeksleri neredeyse A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki diplere geriledi. Tahminen art\u0131k ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yapmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bunun ilk sinyallerini bu hafta alabiliriz. E\u011fer dip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015flarsa bizim borsam\u0131z daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik endeksin bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 hareketlerini de g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015ftan sonraki (18 yazan yer a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f( hareketler dalgal\u0131 ama en az\u0131ndan 70 bin ve hatta 69 bin deste\u011finden uza\u011f\u0131z. Bug\u00fcn borsa ne olur? Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f piyasalar \u00e7\u00f6kmezse bizim borsa yine pozitif ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nceki yorumlar\u0131mda belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere hisse pozisyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6nermiyorum.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43692\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/bist-100-1-dka.-18-ocak.png\" alt=\"bist-100- 1 dka. 18 ocak\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/bist-100-1-dka.-18-ocak.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/bist-100-1-dka.-18-ocak-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik ise dolar\/TL kurunun hareketlerini veriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3107629048\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43693\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/dolar-TL-18-ocak.png\" alt=\"dolar-TL-18 ocak\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/dolar-TL-18-ocak.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/dolar-TL-18-ocak-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, dolar 3.05 seviyelerinin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve bu sabah biraz geriliyor ama her an 3.07&#8217;ye kadar y\u00fckselebilir ve o seviyedeki direnci test edebilir. \u015eu an dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle de 3.05&#8217;in \u00fczerine ge\u00e7i\u015f sonras\u0131nda hareketler ve psikolojik beklentiler yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. Yani 3.07 yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ildi\u011fi anda b\u00fct\u00fcn piyasalar ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar darmada\u011f\u0131n olurlar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sinir u\u00e7lar\u0131na dokunulan yer olacakt\u0131r. Dilerim Merkez Bankas\u0131 ak\u0131l eder de 3.07 falan ge\u00e7ilecek olursa an\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale eder. Yoksa gereksiz yere yeniden g\u00fcven endeksleirnde \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Fakat \u015funu da belirteyim ki, d\u0131\u015f borsalardaki y\u00fcksek dalgalanma devam edecektir. Bizler bir k\u00fcsk\u00fcn bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131k piyasalar\u0131 izlemeye devam edece\u011fiz. DOlar\/TL&#8217;de al\u0131m \u00f6nermiyorum. Normal \u015fartlar olur ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok\u00a0bozulmazsa 3.01-3.02 seviyelerine do\u011fru gev\u015feme beklerim. Tersine yeni\u00a0yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 stresleri olursa her an \u015fuursuz hareketler de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu s\u0131ralar k\u0131sa vadeli tahmin yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak ping-pon oynayama benziyor.<\/p>\n<p>Sa\u011fl\u0131cakla kal\u0131n\u0131z, bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir hafta olsun&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130sterseniz k\u0131saca ge\u00e7en haftaya bir bakal\u0131m; Ge\u00e7en hafta en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan konulardan biri \u00c7in oldu. Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde \u00c7in MB ve Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlarla&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-43688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43688\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}