{"id":43638,"date":"2016-01-14T22:05:36","date_gmt":"2016-01-14T20:05:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43638"},"modified":"2016-01-15T08:22:25","modified_gmt":"2016-01-15T06:22:25","slug":"dava-acmayi-dusunen-var-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dava-acmayi-dusunen-var-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Dava a\u00e7may\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen var m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki bir \u00fclkede sanayicisiniz ve dolar ile al\u0131m yap\u0131yorsunuz. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisindeki riskinizi tahmin etmek, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmek, sat\u0131n alma i\u015flemi yapmak i\u00e7in ne yapars\u0131n\u0131z? \u00dclkenizin konuyla ilgili en g\u00fcvenilir kurumu olan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahminlerine bakars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2015018864\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki t\u00fcketicisiniz. Paraya s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fs\u0131n\u0131z ve dolarla bor\u00e7lan\u0131p, bor\u00e7lanmama konusunda karars\u0131zl\u0131k ya\u015f\u0131yorsunuz. Bu noktada sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir karar vermek ad\u0131na \u00e7ok d\u00fcz bir mant\u0131kla muhakeme yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorsunuz. Ne yapars\u0131n\u0131z? Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahminlerine bakars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki ticaret yap\u0131yorsunuz ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan mal getireceksiniz. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada zarar etmeden satmak ad\u0131na, bu konuyla ilgili hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 kitab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131, ne kadar stok bulunduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 nas\u0131l hesaplars\u0131n\u0131z? Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahminlerine bakars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6yle bir Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na sahipsiniz ki, ba\u015fkan\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7iliyor. Bu konuyla ilgili tutumunuz \u2018ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131\u2019 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olabilir. Geli\u015fmelerle \u00e7ok ilgili bir yurtta\u015f de\u011filsiniz; \u00fclkenizin Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na ve y\u00f6netimine g\u00fcveniyorsunuz. Bundan daha do\u011fal bir \u015fey olabilir mi?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim y\u0131l\u0131n en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131s\u0131 ilan edilen Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, anketlere dayanarak 2016 y\u0131lsonu dolar kuruna y\u00f6nelik tahmini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2016 sonu dolar beklentisi 3,1704\u2026 \u00a0O an i\u00e7in dolar kuru ne? Yuvarlak hesap 3,02\u2026 G\u00fcvenmeniz i\u00e7in yetti mi? Elbette hay\u0131r, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fck performansa bakmak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l 2013 Ocak ay\u0131\u2026 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n beklenti anketine g\u00f6re y\u0131lsonunda dolar \/ TL kuru 1,8215 ile 1,8407 aras\u0131nda\u2026 31 Aral\u0131k 2013 sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme: 2,13\u2026 Sapma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. \u00a0O s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0131srarl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fla \u20181,92 olacak\u2019 s\u00f6ylemi de haf\u0131zalarda.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l 2014 Ocak ay\u0131\u2026 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n beklenti anketine g\u00f6re y\u0131lsonunda dolar \/ TL kuru 2,24\u2026 31 Aral\u0131k 2014 sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme: 2,33\u2026 Nispeten anlay\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanabilecek bir sapma.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l 2015 Ocak ay\u0131\u2026 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n beklenti anketine g\u00f6re y\u0131lsonunda dolar \/ TL kuru 2,40\u2026 31 Aral\u0131k 2015 sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme: 2,92\u2026 Sapman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn boyutunu bor\u00e7lular ve dolar ile harcama yap\u0131p, \u00fcretim ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirenler iliklerine kadar hissetti.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4137262740\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken, arada ya\u015fanan hedef revizyonlar\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanma ve bundan do\u011fan kay\u0131plar\u0131 da \u00fcst \u00fcste koydu\u011funuzda ortaya s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir durum \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor mu? \u015eimdi Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f y\u0131lsonu dolar beklentisini, yine ankete dayanarak b\u00f6ylesine f\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 bir y\u0131la girerken 3,17 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tutma ihtimali olmasa da, \u00a0ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f bir olay\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na girmeyece\u011fim. Benim derdim \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek sapmalar. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te zarar eden i\u015fletmelerin, ki\u015filerin g\u00fcnah\u0131 ne? \u00dclkelerinin Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenmek mi?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ortadaki zarar \u2018t\u00fch\u2019 deyip ge\u00e7i\u015ftirecek oranda m\u0131? \u00dclkenin iktidar\u0131 da bu oranlar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda durmad\u0131 m\u0131? Enflasyondan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye bir tek maddesi bile tutmayan orta vadeli programlar ve hedefler a\u00e7\u0131klamad\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Merak ediyorum dava a\u00e7may\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen var m\u0131? Bu soruyu sorarsan\u0131z kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne gelir? B\u00fcy\u00fck bir sessizlik\u2026 Elbette anketlere dayanarak dava a\u00e7mak ve kazanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ama \u00fclkede zarar\u0131na itiraz edecek adam bile mi kalmad\u0131? \u015eimdi tekrar en ba\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fcp bir di\u011fer soruyu ortaya koyal\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-603717105\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Belki dava a\u00e7an, \u015fik\u00e2yetini a\u00e7\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k dile getiren yok. Ama bu saatten sonra kim ekonomi y\u00f6netimine ve b\u00fcrokrasisine g\u00fcvenip yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki bir \u00fclkede sanayicisiniz ve dolar ile al\u0131m yap\u0131yorsunuz. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisindeki riskinizi tahmin etmek, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmek, sat\u0131n alma i\u015flemi yapmak i\u00e7in ne yapars\u0131n\u0131z? \u00dclkenizin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-43638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43638"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}