{"id":4361,"date":"2011-08-23T07:54:39","date_gmt":"2011-08-23T04:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4361"},"modified":"2011-08-23T07:54:55","modified_gmt":"2011-08-23T04:54:55","slug":"piyasalarin-ve-merkez-bankasi%e2%80%99nin-%e2%80%9cdip%e2%80%9d-arayisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/piyasalarin-ve-merkez-bankasi%e2%80%99nin-%e2%80%9cdip%e2%80%9d-arayisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar\u0131n ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cdip\u201d aray\u0131\u015f\u0131&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Avrupa\u2019dan ard arda gelen bor\u00e7 krizi haberleri ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri finansal piyasalarda ciddi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 beraberinde getirdi. Dow Jones bir kez daha 11 bin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130MKB 100 Endeksi de 50 bin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na kadar geriledi. T\u00fcm bu karga\u015fadan en iyi alt\u0131n faydaland\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2570485537\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn 1.895\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>dolar<\/strong><\/span>\/ons ile tarihi rekorunu \u201cbir kez daha k\u0131ran\u201d alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bu karga\u015fadan istifade 1.920-50 band\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselece\u011fe benziyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 gelen sat\u0131\u015flarla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, bir yandan da Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 durumundaki Fed\u2019den 3. Bedava\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>Para<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Paketi talep ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcnl\u00fc ekonomistler\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u201cte\u015fvik\u201d paketleri a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerisinde bulunuyor. Anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m, ilk ikisi i\u015fe yarasayd\u0131, 3. Pakete gerek kal\u0131r m\u0131yd\u0131? Neyse ge\u00e7elim&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar bu haftan\u0131n son i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>\u00fcnl\u00fc<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmaya odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00dcnl\u00fc politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ve Merkez Bankalar\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n bir araya geldi\u011fi bu toplant\u0131lar\u0131n bir \u00f6ncekinde Bernanke 600 milyar dolarl\u0131k paketi a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f ve piyasalar\u0131 yine ipten alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi yine ayn\u0131 beklentidir ki piyasalar\u0131 d\u00fcn aya\u011fa kald\u0131ran. Piyasalar Bernanke\u2019nin a\u011fz\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine bakacaklar, \u201ciyi bir haber\u201d duyabilmek i\u00e7in. (Yine i\u015f Bernanke\u2019ye kald\u0131ysa vah bu piyasalar\u0131n haline!)<\/p>\n<p>\u0130yi haber ne? \u015eu veya bu \u015fekilde piyasalara yeni para verilmesi. Fed para verecek mi? Bence deflasyon tehlikesi belirgin hal almadan Fed bu konuda bir ad\u0131m atmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ola ki Amerikan bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klara faiz vermeyi durdurmas\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karsa, piyasalar ilk bak\u0131\u015fta bunu olumlu alg\u0131layacak ancak sonras\u0131nda \u00e7ok da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etki yapmad\u0131\u011f\u00fc\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecektir. Hatta yeterince para vermedi\u011fi i\u00e7in Bernanke\u2019yi \u201ccezaland\u0131rma\u201d yoluna bile gideceklerdir.<\/p>\n<p>Yine de bu beklentilerle k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki hafta ald\u0131klar\u0131 darbelerin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmaya, bir dip bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olacaklar m\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2006487697\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar bu \u201cgazla\u201d giderler.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7erideki bir ba\u015fka dip aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizlerinde olaca\u011fa benziyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn PPK toplan\u0131yor. CNBC-e\u2019nin anketine g\u00f6re 12 arac\u0131 kurumdan 3\u2019\u00fc 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim bekliyor. 1 kurum TL zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda indirim beklerken, 6 kurum d\u00f6viz kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131nda 100 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim bekliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlarla MB piyasada ciddi oranda likidite \u00e7ekmi\u015f ancak bu likiditeyi yeniden sisteme \u201ctemin ederek\u201d bir anlamda bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemine \u201csalma\u201d salm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sonras\u0131nda kademeli olarak indirdi\u011fi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 bu ay ba\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc PPK ile k\u00fcresel krizi sebep g\u00f6stere rek ; 6.25\u2019ten 5.75\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2892747761\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bono piyasalar\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131dan da bir faiz indirimi bekliyor. 6.8\u2019lerde seyreden \u201d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayl\u0131k beklenen enflasyon oran\u0131\u201d b\u00f6ylesi bir indirimi \u00e7ok hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmasa da MB kendi s\u00f6ylemleri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde b\u00f6ylesi bir indirime giderse piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmayacak! MB\u2019nin s\u00f6ylemleri ve politikalar\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin s\u00f6ylemlerine yak\u0131nsad\u0131k\u00e7a b\u00f6ylesi bir faiz indirimi bono piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 memnun edecektir. Faizlerin ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131 da bu beklentinin bir sonraki aya ertelenece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle bono piyasas\u0131n\u0131 bozmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ilgilendirecek mi bu haberler? MB beklenmedik s\u00fcrpriz bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmazsa borsa yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na bakarak kendi havas\u0131nda yoluna devam edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>TL de\u011filse bile d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131nda bir indirim gelmesi, d\u00f6viz p,iyasalar\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir olumlu etki yapacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz toplant\u0131da 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirimle 930 milyon dolar\u0131 piyasaya veren MB, 100 baz puan\u015f\u0131k bir indirime gidecek olur ise 1.850 milyon dolarl\u0131k bir likiditeyi piyasaya verecek demektir ki bu da kurlar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 bir par\u00e7a olsun rahatlatabilir.<\/p>\n<p>PPK\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn alaca\u011f\u0131 kararlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli olacak!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u00a0ve\u00a0Avrupa\u2019dan ard arda gelen bor\u00e7 krizi haberleri ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri finansal piyasalarda ciddi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 beraberinde getirdi. Dow Jones bir kez daha&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4361"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4361\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}