{"id":43532,"date":"2016-01-07T13:38:45","date_gmt":"2016-01-07T11:38:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43532"},"modified":"2016-01-07T13:38:45","modified_gmt":"2016-01-07T11:38:45","slug":"mahfi-egilmez-2016ya-kotu-basladik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mahfi-egilmez-2016ya-kotu-basladik\/","title":{"rendered":"Mahfi E\u011filmez &#8211; 2016&#8217;ya K\u00f6t\u00fc Ba\u015flad\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>\u0130lk a\u015famas\u0131 ABD krizi, ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 Avrupa krizi olan k\u00fcresel krizin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fme yolundaki \u00fclkeler krizi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 uzun bir s\u00fcredir anlat\u0131yorum. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3334790174\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminlerimi iyimser beklentiler \u00fczerine kurarak sizlerle payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ne var ki y\u0131la ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki geli\u015fmeler, b\u0131rak\u0131n tahminleri, varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n da tutmayabilece\u011fini daha ilk haftadan g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6rt geli\u015fme iyimser beklentileri 2016\u2019ya giri\u015ften ba\u015flayarak ters y\u00fcz etti. \u0130lk olumsuz geli\u015fme Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 bir \u015eii din adam\u0131n\u0131 idam etmesiyle ba\u015flayan gerginli\u011fin ortado\u011fuda zaten var olan gerginli\u011fi en \u00fcst d\u00fczeye t\u0131rmand\u0131rmas\u0131 oldu. \u0130kinci olumsuz etki \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, giderek d\u00fc\u015fen ihracat\u0131 destekleyebilmek i\u00e7in Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi \u015feklinde geldi. Bu geli\u015fme kur sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n giderek sertle\u015fece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olumsuz geli\u015fme Kuzey Kore\u2019nin hidrojen bombas\u0131 denemesiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu deneme, d\u00fcnyada yeni bir so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u0131n daha yayg\u0131n bir alanda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steren bir geli\u015fme olarak piyasalar\u0131 rahats\u0131z etti. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 olumsuz d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fme y\u0131l\u0131n daha ba\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 alt \u00fcst etti. T\u00fcrkiye bu d\u0131\u015f olumsuzluklara i\u00e7 olumsuzluklar\u0131 da ekleyince y\u0131l\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131ndaki durumdan en k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilenen ekonomi oldu. \u00d6ncelikle enflasyonun 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 9\u2019a yak\u0131n bir oranda tamamlamas\u0131, ekonomide 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck toparlanma beklentilerinin biraz sars\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu sars\u0131lma iki nedene dayan\u0131yor: (1) Bu y\u00fckseklikteki bir enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fi iki hanelere gidece\u011fi endi\u015fesinin artmas\u0131. (2) Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n elinin serbest olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi. AKP\u2019nin, anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015fkanl\u0131k meselesiyle i\u00e7 i\u00e7e g\u00f6t\u00fcrme \u00e7abas\u0131na muhalefetin verdi\u011fi olumsuz tepki de siyasette uzla\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bunlara ek olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu gerginli\u011finde taraf olmas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n gerilmesinde etkili oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mahfiegilmez.com\/2016\/01\/2016ya-kotu-basladk.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>. (Mahfiegilmez.Com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130lk a\u015famas\u0131 ABD krizi, ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 Avrupa krizi olan k\u00fcresel krizin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fme yolundaki \u00fclkeler krizi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 uzun bir s\u00fcredir anlat\u0131yorum. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2016&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,847],"class_list":["post-43532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-mahfi-egilmez-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43532\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}