{"id":43464,"date":"2016-01-04T10:10:55","date_gmt":"2016-01-04T08:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43464"},"modified":"2016-01-04T23:21:53","modified_gmt":"2016-01-04T21:21:53","slug":"2016ya-girerken-piyasalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2016ya-girerken-piyasalar\/","title":{"rendered":"2016&#8217;ya Girerken Piyasalar&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Yeni bir y\u0131l\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcndeyiz. 2016&#8217;ya girerken piyasalar stresli bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapt\u0131. Bu sabahki a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f ve d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin yorumlara ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce, 2016&#8217;da piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc konusunda basit iki grafik verece\u011fim.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2411683512\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik BIST-100 endeksinin y\u0131ll\u0131k grafi\u011fini veriyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43465\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43465\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016.png\" alt=\"BIST-100-04-01-2016\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere 1992&#8217;den bu yana, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda BIST-100 endeksi iki y\u0131l arka arkaya hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015f. 2011 (-%22.3), 2013(-%13.31) ve 2015&#8217;de (-%16.33) \u00a0d\u00fc\u015fen borsa, 2010(+%24.95), 2012(+%52.55) ve 2014&#8217;de (+%26.43) y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Borsan\u0131n bu y\u0131l da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapmas\u0131 durumunda bir ilk ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki hareketler tekrarlan\u0131rsa bu y\u0131l endeksin ortalama olarak %25-35 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir. Bu durumda endeksin 71 bin civar\u0131nda y\u0131la ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, 85-95 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 2016 i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek seviyelerdir.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik endeksin 5 dakikal\u0131k hareketlerini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43466\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016-5DK.png\" alt=\"BIST-100-04-01-2016-5DK\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016-5DK.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BIST-100-04-01-2016-5DK-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Endeks a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta yeniden\u00a070 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re %2.1 civar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bulunuyor. D\u0131\u015f piyasalara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda DOw future&#8217;lar\u0131 %1.26, S&amp;P500 endeksi future&#8217;lar\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.26, DAX future&#8217;lar\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2.77 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bulunuyor. Asya cephesine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise \u00c7in y\u00fczde 6.86, Japonya %3.08 ve G\u00fcney Kore %2.17 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bulunuyor. Yani d\u0131\u015f piyasalar 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ciddi bir stresle giriyor. Bunun temelde iki sebebi var;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u00d6zellikle \u00c7in&#8217;den gelen PMI verilerinin beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ile yuan&#8217;\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.25&#8217;e ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00a0stresi art\u0131ran ilk unsur oldu. \u00d6te yandan;<\/li>\n<li>Arabistan ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik ve son geli\u015fmeler Ortado\u011fu&#8217;da gerginli art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir unsur oldu ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Suudi Arabistan y\u00f6netiminin \u015eii din adam\u0131 \u00a0Ayetullah Nemr Bak\u0131r en-Nemr&#8217;i idam etti. \u0130ran, bu idamlara tepki g\u00f6sterdi ve \u0130ran&#8217;dan Arabistan&#8217;a a\u011f\u0131r a\u00e7\u0131klamalar geldi. Bunun bedelinin a\u011f\u0131r olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u00a0d\u00fcn ak\u015fam saatlerinde de Suudi Arabistan&#8217;\u0131n Tahran B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011fi ve Me\u015fhed kentindeki konsolosluk binas\u0131 ate\u015fe verildi. Bunun \u00fczerine\u00a0Suudi Arabistan, \u0130ran ile t\u00fcm diplomatik ili\u015fkilerini kestiklerini bildirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Is\u0131nan bir Ortado\u011fu do\u011fal olarak k\u00fcresel piyasalarda stres yarat\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Ceo&#8217;lar\u0131 \u015fu an en k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olarak k\u00fcresel jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki anket grafi\u011fi Mckinsey Co&#8217;nun web sitesinden al\u0131nd\u0131. Jeoplotik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda (Sep 2015) CEO&#8217;lar\u0131n %54&#8217;\u00fc bunu risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Aral\u0131k 2015 anketlerinde bu oran en y\u00fcksek seviyeye f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f ve %81 olmu\u015f.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43467\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/MCKINSEY.png\" alt=\"MCKINSEY\" width=\"546\" height=\"848\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/MCKINSEY.png 546w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/MCKINSEY-193x300.png 193w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 546px) 100vw, 546px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu sabahki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yurt i\u00e7indeki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011flayamay\u0131z ve k\u00fcresel jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve \u00c7in&#8217;deki yava\u015flama piyasalar\u0131 bozmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelerden Dolar\/TL kuru da nasibini ald\u0131. \u00a0DOlar\/TL&#8217;nin y\u0131ll\u0131k grafi\u011fi da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da veriliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-213891935\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43469\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/DOLAR-04-01-2016.png\" alt=\"DOLAR-04-01-2016\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/DOLAR-04-01-2016.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/DOLAR-04-01-2016-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dola son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r art\u0131yor. Yani TL de\u011fer kaybediyor. Bunun temel sebebi ABD&#8217;de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcrecine girilmesi, parasal geni\u015flemenin son bulmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k b\u00f6lgesine en yak\u0131n ve hatta bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n akt\u00f6rlerinden olmam\u0131zd\u0131r. \u00a0Bu a\u015famada, tamam\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki geli\u015fmeleri takip etmek gerekiyor. D\u0131\u015far\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczelince d\u00fczelir, bozulunca bozuluruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye \u00f6zg\u00fc ayr\u0131 bir analiz olu\u015fturmak bu \u015fartlarda anlaml\u0131 olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak\u00a0sadece piyasalar\u0131 izlemekle yetinmek gerekiyor. \u015eu anki \u015fartlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi durumunda piyasalar olumluya d\u00f6nebilir ama k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler c\u0131l\u0131z kalabilir. E\u011fer anlaml\u0131 bir al\u0131m\u0131n geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsem, sizlerle payla\u015f\u0131r\u0131m. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n bol ve hay\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7alara vesile olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyor, hepinizin yeni y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tekrar kutluyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni bir y\u0131l\u0131n ilk i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcndeyiz. 2016&#8217;ya girerken piyasalar stresli bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapt\u0131. Bu sabahki a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f ve d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin yorumlara ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce, 2016&#8217;da&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-43464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}