{"id":43401,"date":"2015-12-29T14:56:07","date_gmt":"2015-12-29T12:56:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43401"},"modified":"2015-12-29T15:11:54","modified_gmt":"2015-12-29T13:11:54","slug":"2015-yilinda-turkiye-ekonomisi-ve-piyasalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/2015-yilinda-turkiye-ekonomisi-ve-piyasalar\/","title":{"rendered":"2015 Y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi ve Piyasalar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Oynakl\u0131k ve stresin tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l 2015<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2033379881\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rakmak \u00fczereyiz. 2015, bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan ilgin\u00e7 ve zor bir y\u0131l oldu. Ekonomi ve finans perspektifinden bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; 2015&#8217;in oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n ve stresin tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek \u00e7ok da zor de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Hem y\u0131l\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerinde \u00e2det yerini bulsun, hem son 1 y\u0131lda olan bitene h\u0131zl\u0131 bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m, hem de ileride d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda haf\u0131zam\u0131z\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca tazelememize katk\u0131 sa\u011flas\u0131n diye 2015&#8217;te neleri konu\u015ftu\u011fumuzu bir yaz\u0131da \u00f6zetlemek istedim. Ancak, mevzu bahis koskoca bir y\u0131l olunca; \u00f6zetlemek pek de kolay olmuyor&#8230; Bu y\u00fczden, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6zeti ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerimi 3 ayr\u0131 yaz\u0131ya b\u00f6lmeye karar verdim. Bug\u00fcn 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi ve Yurti\u00e7i Piyasalar\u0131 ele al\u0131yorum. Bir aksilik olmazsa yar\u0131n 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda K\u00fcresel Ekonomi ve Piyasalar, y\u0131l\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Makroekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin beklentilerimi konu alan birer yaz\u0131 daha payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43402 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-BIST-100-2015.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - BIST-100 2015\" width=\"605\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-BIST-100-2015.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-BIST-100-2015-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><br \/>\n<em><strong>R\u00fcya gibi ba\u015flayan y\u0131l 1 ay i\u00e7inde kusursuz f\u0131rt\u0131naya d\u00f6nd\u00fc&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce, bug\u00fcnlerde yay\u0131nlanan y\u0131ll\u0131k strateji raporlar\u0131n\u0131n ve yap\u0131lan yorumlar\u0131n tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131 2015&#8217;in T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan m\u00fcthi\u015f bir f\u0131rsat y\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu&#8230; \u00d6yle ki, yap\u0131lan yorum ve tahminlerde bir iyimserlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 vard\u0131 dersek \u00e7ok da abartm\u0131\u015f olmay\u0131z diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. B\u0130ST &#8211; 100 endekinin 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inde 100.000 seviyesini a\u015faca\u011f\u0131na neredeyse kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yordu&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bu iyimserli\u011fin sebebi ne miydi? Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda 2014 y\u0131ln\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde ba\u015flayan ve y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru h\u0131zlanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f&#8230; 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 Haziran ay\u0131 ortalar\u0131nda 115 dolar civar\u0131nda olan Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 2015&#8217;e ba\u015flarken 50 dolara kadar geriledi. Bu hareketin enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelere olduk\u00e7a olumlu katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle K\u0131r\u0131lgan Be\u015fli (Brezilya, Endonezya, G\u00fcney Afrika, Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye) olarak an\u0131lan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer alan T\u00fcrkiye, bu hareketten pozitif etkilenecek \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn hem cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa hem de enflasyona \u00e7ok olumlu katk\u0131 yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n<p>27 A\u011fustos 2013&#8217;te &#8220;y\u0131l sonunda dolar\/TL kurunun 1.92 olursa \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmayal\u0131m&#8221; (2013 y\u0131l sonunda kur 2.3449 oldu) dedikten yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 ay sonra 2014 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 da &#8220;2013 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sakin olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftim. Yan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131m. Erken konu\u015fmamak gerekiyor&#8221; diyerek s\u00fctten a\u011fz\u0131n\u0131n yand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 itiraf eden T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc iyimserli\u011fin etkisiyle yo\u011furdu \u00fcflemeden yemeyi tercih etti: 27 Ocak 2015&#8217;te y\u0131l\u0131n ilk enflasyon raporunun a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da &#8220;2015 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda son 45 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonunu g\u00f6rebiliriz&#8221; diyen Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131; soru cevap b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde enflasyondaki gerilemeye ba\u011fl\u0131 at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin bir soru \u00fczerine, &#8220;Ocak enflasyonu 1 puandan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc diyelim, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden \u00e7ok fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eu anda 8,17, &#8216;7,17&#8217;nin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc&#8217; diyelim. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131, herkes g\u00f6rd\u00fc, kani oldu. \u00c7ekirde\u011fe bakt\u0131k iyi. 4 \u015eubat&#8217;ta dahi oturup parametreleri de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. 24 \u015eubat&#8217;ta yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z toplant\u0131ya \u00e7ok vakit var. 24 \u015eubat&#8217;ta yapmay\u0131z, 4 \u015eubat&#8217;ta de\u011ferlendiririz.&#8221; dedi.<\/p>\n<p>3 \u015eubat&#8217;ta a\u00e7\u0131klanan y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE % 7.24 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek 0.93 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn TCMB&#8217;den yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamayla, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc PPK&#8217;ya gerek kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duyuruldu&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3837817595\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ne olduysa bundan sonra oldu diyebiliriz&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Siyasi kanattan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve bas\u0131nda yer alan \u00e7e\u015fitli spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n etkisiyle kurda tam anlam\u0131yla kantar\u0131n topuzu ka\u00e7t\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 dinamiklerin k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi TL&#8217;deki sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n devam\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f dinamiklerdeki bozulmalardan da yurt i\u00e7indeki genel se\u00e7imlerden kaynaklanan belirsizliklerden de nasibini ald\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Babacan ile 11 Mart tarihinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme sonras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamayla sorunun tatl\u0131ya ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ancak, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine damga vuran bu tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n etkileri y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131nda hissedildi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fcya, artan i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f belirsizliklerin TL&#8217;de sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131yla tam bir kabusa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc&#8230;<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43403 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-DolarTL-2015.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - DolarTL 2015\" width=\"605\" height=\"397\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-DolarTL-2015.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-DolarTL-2015-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><br \/>\n<em><strong>Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne siyasi belirsizlik damga vurdu&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci ve 3. \u00e7eyrekte ise, rotay\u0131, genel se\u00e7imlere ili\u015fkin beklentiler ve sonu\u00e7lar belirledi. 7 Haziran se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde yay\u0131nlanan anketlerin koalisyon ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi belirsizlik se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n da herhangi bir partinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidar olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmesiyle had safhaya ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te piyasada ya\u015fanan kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatmak gerekirse;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1370140160\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ve 8 Haziran g\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan koalisyon ihtimaliyle endekste olduk\u00e7a sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fand\u0131. 18 May\u0131s&#8217;ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 88.651 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hareketi; 8 Haziran g\u00fcn\u00fc endeksin 75.268 puana kadar gerilemesine neden oldu.<\/li>\n<li>9 Haziran&#8217;dan itibaren gelen tepki al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve &#8220;istik\u015fafi&#8221; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin koalisyon kurulabilece\u011fi beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla endeks yeniden y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7evirerek 84.529 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/li>\n<li>Partiler aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131yla koalisyonun kurulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve se\u00e7imlerin yenilenece\u011finin netle\u015fmesiyle y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eviren endeks; A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 69.797 seviyesine kadar geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca artan ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131n\u0131n ve detaylar\u0131na sonraki yaz\u0131da de\u011finece\u011fim d\u0131\u015f dinamiklerde (\u00d6zellikle \u00c7in\u2019de ya\u015fanan Kara pazartesi) meydana gelen geli\u015fmelerin etkisini de unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Siyasi belirsizlik bitti ama stres bitmedi&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011finde ba\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fcren g\u00fcndem son \u00e7eyrekte de yakam\u0131z\u0131 b\u0131rakmad\u0131. 1 Kas\u0131m Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tek parti iktidar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymas\u0131 \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa piyasalar\u0131n rahatlamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak, 24 Kas\u0131m g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ihlal eden Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi piyasadaki stresin yeniden tavan yapmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yurti\u00e7inde t\u0131rmanan ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131, Rusya&#8217;yla gerilen ili\u015fkiler ve Irak &#8211; Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgemizde ya\u015fanan hareketlilik y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen stresin son \u00e7eyrekte de tam gaz devam etmesine neden oldu, olmakta&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Takkeyi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze al\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim\u2026<\/strong> <\/em><\/p>\n<p>2015 y\u0131l\u0131na ba\u015flarken T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131l boyunca devam etti; hatta daha da geriledi. Ancak, ba\u015fta i\u00e7 gerginlikler olmak \u00fczere d\u0131\u015f dinamiklerdeki oynakl\u0131k bu \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsat\u0131n \u015fu ana kadar beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011ferlendirilebilmesini engelledi. Y\u0131l\u0131n her \u00e7eyre\u011finde ayr\u0131 bir stres unsuru hem ekonomi hem piyasalar \u00fczerinde bir bask\u0131 unsuru oldu:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1. \u00c7eyrekte TCMB &#8211; Siyasi Kanat aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik,<\/li>\n<li>2. ve 3. \u00c7eyrekte Genel Se\u00e7imlere ili\u015fkin belirsizlik,<\/li>\n<li>Son \u00e7eyrekte ise Rusya ile gerilen ili\u015fkiler, t\u0131rmanan ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131 ve Irak &#8211; Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki hareketlilik 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n yurti\u00e7i ekonomi resmini belirledi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Fed, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 &amp; Yunanistan, \u00c7in vs. gibi 2015&#8217;in \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddelerinin etkilerinden bahsetmeden 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Ekonomi ve Piyasa resmini tamamlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ancak, yukar\u0131da da belirtti\u011fim gibi bu konulara bir sonraki yaz\u0131da de\u011finece\u011fim. Temel olarak yurti\u00e7i geli\u015fmeleri baz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131y\u0131 tamamlamadan \u00f6nce; oynakl\u0131k ve stresin tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca olu\u015fan makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcye h\u0131zl\u0131ca bakal\u0131m;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede g\u00f6r\u00fclen zay\u0131f seyir 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda da de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Her ne kadar 3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131nda pozitif bir s\u00fcrprizle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda ekonominin % 3.4 ile T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek seviyelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini tahmin ediyorum. Elde edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131ndan gelmesi; yat\u0131r\u0131m ve net d\u0131\u015f ticaret taraf\u0131ndan anlaml\u0131 ve olumlu bir katk\u0131n\u0131n gelmemesi de maalesef \u00e7ok olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc olu\u015fturmuyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43404 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00fcrkiye-Ekonomisi-B\u00fcy\u00fcme.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi B\u00fcy\u00fcme\" width=\"545\" height=\"278\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00fcrkiye-Ekonomisi-B\u00fcy\u00fcme.png 545w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-T\u00fcrkiye-Ekonomisi-B\u00fcy\u00fcme-300x153.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 545px) 100vw, 545px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enflasyonda 45 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle ba\u015flayan 2015 y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131 y\u00fcksek ihtimalle % 8.25 &#8211; % 8.50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n; g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131k ve TL&#8217;de g\u00f6zlenen sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki iyile\u015fmeyi engelleyen temel unsurlar oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Yine de y\u0131llar itibariyle ortalama enflasyon seviyelerinde g\u00f6zlenen iyile\u015fme ve uzun vadeli beklentilerin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam edece\u011fini i\u015faret etmesi olumlu geli\u015fmeler olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Al\u0131nacak yap\u0131sal \u00f6nlemler ve para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun devam\u0131, bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na olmasa da orta &#8211; uzun vadede % 5 enflasyon hedefinin yakalanma ihtimalini kuvvetlendirecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43405 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Enflasyon-2015.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - Enflasyon 2015\" width=\"558\" height=\"171\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Enflasyon-2015.png 558w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Enflasyon-2015-300x92.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cari Dengedeki toparlanma e\u011filimi devam ediyor. Ancak, bu iyile\u015fmenin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131ndan ve ithalat\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik al\u0131nan makro ihtiyati tedbirlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor olmas\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ihracat\u0131n hacim ve nitelik (katma de\u011feri y\u00fcksek, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131) anlam\u0131nda radikal bir geli\u015fme g\u00f6stermemesi bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bir miktar g\u00f6lgelemekte. Finansman taraf\u0131nda, net portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri ve do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n sergiledi\u011fi seyir de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6lgeleyen di\u011fer unsurlar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 35 &#8211; 38 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43406 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2015.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - Cari Denge 2015\" width=\"604\" height=\"203\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2015.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-Cari-Denge-2015-300x101.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Potansiyelin alt\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f yava\u015f da olsa artmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesine ek olarak, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen asgari \u00fccret zamm\u0131n\u0131n da ortaya \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 maliyetin h\u00fck\u00fcmet &#8211; i\u015fveren aras\u0131ndaki payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fi art\u0131rabilecek bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43407 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u0130\u015fsizlik-2015.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - \u0130\u015fsizlik 2015\" width=\"605\" height=\"172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u0130\u015fsizlik-2015.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-\u0130\u015fsizlik-2015-300x85.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde en olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn B\u00fct\u00e7e taraf\u0131nda olu\u015ftu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Son 2 y\u0131lda yap\u0131lan Yerel Se\u00e7im, Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Se\u00e7imi ve 2 defa yap\u0131lan Genel Se\u00e7imleri de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplininin s\u00fcrmekte olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir pozitif unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u015eu ana kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlar, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerinin, hedeflerden \u00e7ok daha olumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebilirim.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43408 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fct\u00e7e-Dengesi-2015.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi 2015\" width=\"545\" height=\"291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fct\u00e7e-Dengesi-2015.png 545w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-B\u00fct\u00e7e-Dengesi-2015-300x160.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 545px) 100vw, 545px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>TCMB&#8217;nin i\u015fi hi\u00e7 kolay de\u011fil. Hedef ve beklentilerin \u00fczerinde seyreden enflasyon ile birlikte potansiyelin alt\u0131nda seyreden bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l belirlenmesi gerekti\u011fi yan\u0131t\u0131 hi\u00e7 de kolay olmayan bir soru. Her ne kadar ele\u015ftirilse de ya da ele\u015ftirsek de bu kadar belirsizli\u011fin ve bask\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir ortamda TCMB&#8217;nin \u00f6yle ya da b\u00f6yle bu s\u00fcreci ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Asli g\u00f6revi olan uzun vadeli fiyat istikrar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda enflasyonun hem y\u0131llar itibariyle izledi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck trendi hem de uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin izledi\u011fi seyir olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde baz\u0131 kararlar\u0131na kat\u0131lmamakla birlikte; TCMB\u2019nin alan\u0131nda uzman ve son derece yetenekli \u00fcyelere sahip oldu\u011funu unutmamak l\u00e2z\u0131m. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131nda acil PPK duyurulana kadar dolar\/TL\u2019de g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fckseli\u015fin, acil PPK duyurulmas\u0131 itibariyle hen\u00fcz \u015fok faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden sona ermesi ve TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131; piyasan\u0131n da TCMB\u2019nin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu bildi\u011fini g\u00f6steren somut bir i\u015farettir. Merkez Bankalar\u0131 gecikmeli ad\u0131mlar atabilir, hatta hata yapabilir; ancak orta ve uzun vadede izlemesi gereken yoldan ayr\u0131lmaz. Ama kolay yoldan, ama zorunda kalarak&#8230;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43409 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Enflasyon.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan - TCMB Enflasyon\" width=\"555\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Enflasyon.png 555w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-Enflasyon-300x208.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 555px) 100vw, 555px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Son s\u00f6z olarak; 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca ya\u015fanan stres ve oynakl\u0131klara neden olan geli\u015fmeler, y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda s\u00f6ylenseydi herhalde hi\u00e7 kimse T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisinin ve piyasalar\u0131n bu seviyelerden y\u0131l\u0131 tamamlayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmezdi. Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi\u2019nin ne kadar diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funun a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6stergesidir. Felaket tellall\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaparak mevcudu daha k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n da mevcudu abart\u0131p tozpembe bir tablo \u00e7izmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n da hi\u00e7bir faydas\u0131 yoktur; aksine ciddi zararlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, enseyi karartmadan, ama \u201cbize bir \u015fey olmaz\u201da da yaslanmadan; hatalar\u0131m\u0131zdan ders \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131p, eksiklerimizi tamamlay\u0131p, \u201cnas\u0131l daha iyiye gidebiliriz\u201din cevab\u0131n\u0131 aray\u0131p, daha \u00f6nemlisi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p uygulay\u0131p hep daha ileri gitmemiz l\u00e2z\u0131m. Gereksiz ve bo\u015f tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n hi\u00e7bir fayda getirmedi\u011fi ve aya\u011f\u0131m\u0131za kadar gelen f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n tepilmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sona ermekte olan y\u0131l i\u00e7inde de ya\u015fayarak bir kez daha g\u00f6rd\u00fck ve 2015\u2019i de ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n aras\u0131na ekledik. 2016\u2019n\u0131n ve sonras\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131, hatta yarat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llar olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oynakl\u0131k ve stresin tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l 2015 Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rakmak \u00fczereyiz. 2015, bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan ilgin\u00e7 ve zor bir y\u0131l oldu. Ekonomi ve finans&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1352,1513,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362],"class_list":["post-43401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43401\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}