{"id":43258,"date":"2015-12-24T10:43:38","date_gmt":"2015-12-24T08:43:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43258"},"modified":"2016-12-20T17:30:36","modified_gmt":"2016-12-20T14:30:36","slug":"borsa-dolar-ve-altin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/borsa-dolar-ve-altin\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsa, Dolar ve Alt\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik borsan\u0131n son be\u015f g\u00fcndeki seans i\u00e7i hareketlerini g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcn bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakarak y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fayan BIST-100 endeksi bu sabah bir miktar gerilemeyle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. D\u00fcn 74.500 seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve genel olarak d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda emtialar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finden kaynaklanan olumlu bir hava vard\u0131.<\/strong><\/em> \u00d6zellikle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ABD borsalar\u0131na al\u0131m getirmi\u015fti ve Avrupa ile bizim piyasa g\u00fcne y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2378437830\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43261\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-24-12-2015.png\" alt=\"BIST-100-24-12-2015\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-24-12-2015.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-24-12-2015-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, endeks 74 bin civar\u0131ndan g\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131. 72.250 seviyelerinde ikili bir dip olu\u015fmu\u015ftu ve bu formasyona g\u00f6re endeksin 75 bin civar\u0131na kadar hala y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklenebilir. \u015eu s\u0131ralar bir\u00e7ok belirsizlik sona erdi. FED faiz art\u0131rd\u0131. Bizim MB faizlere dokunmad\u0131 ve d\u00fcn ekonomistlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da ileti\u015fimi art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar ama MB Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Turalay Ken\u00e7 bu konudaki eksikli\u011fi gidermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu toplant\u0131ya kat\u0131lan ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, MB kordioru daralt\u0131rken, alt band\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmek yerine \u00fcst band\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 indirerek yapabilirmi\u015f. Bu sinyal verildi ama korku endeksi olarak bilinen VIX ve MOVE endekslerindeki oynakl\u0131\u011fa bak\u0131lacakm\u0131\u015f. Asl\u0131nda ad\u0131m ad\u0131m faiz indirilme sinyalleri veriliyor. En az\u0131ndan bu konuda kafam\u0131z netle\u015fiyor. Di\u011fer taraftan BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 da yine bankalar\u0131n \u00e7ok i\u015fine yarayacak ( AHHH bu Faiz lobisi bankalar, her zaman kedi kaymak yiyor). \u00a0Faizleri indirerek faiz lobisine b\u00fcy\u00fck hizmet yap\u0131lacak. \u00a0\u00d6te yandan,\u00a0\u00a0TBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ayd\u0131n\u2019\u0131n \u2018sinyal\u2019 verdi\u011fi BDDK \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re konut ve t\u00fcketici kredileri ile kredi kartlar\u0131nda risk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 azal\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece bankalar\u0131n sermaye yeterlilik oran\u0131 daha az d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce, kredi verme i\u015ftah\u0131 artacak.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer bu geli\u015fmeler olursa, bankalar\u0131n karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede artar. Orta ve uzun vadede ekonomiye nas\u0131l hasar verir? sorusu \u015fu an \u00f6nemli de\u011fil. Nas\u0131l olsa bir yolunu bulur ve s\u0131v\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z. E\u011fer bankalar i\u00e7in b\u00f6yle olumlu geli\u015fmeler olacaksa endeks artmal\u0131. En az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede \u00f6zellikle i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n endi\u015feleri azalacak ve piyasada para bolla\u015facak. Yani \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki en az 3 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre i\u00e7in ekonomide ciddi bir bahar havas\u0131na haz\u0131r olun. Borsan\u0131n da bu trende ayak uyduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz. Borsa i\u00e7in \u015fu an tek risk kald\u0131. Bu risk de d\u0131\u015f borsalarda ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun haricinde \u00f6zellikle Suriye&#8217;nin muhaliflerle masaya oturacak olmas\u0131, emtialardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler, ABD&#8217;deki genel b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin hi\u00e7 de fena gitmiyor olmas\u0131 bana g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcredeki olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. Bu y\u00fczden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bence hisselerini tutmal\u0131lar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ralli tipi hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131. Borsa asl\u0131nda MB&#8217;n\u0131n veya BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n orta vadede \u00e7ok riskli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr ama borsac\u0131lar, &#8220;yang\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karsa ilk \u00f6nce ben s\u0131v\u0131\u015f\u0131r ve kendimi kurtar\u0131r\u0131m&#8221; konusunda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcven i\u00e7indedirler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadedeki co\u015fkuya kat\u0131lmak isteyebilirler. Bu y\u00fczden hisselerinize sahip \u00e7\u0131k\u0131n&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOLAR\/TL\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Az \u00f6nce dolara ciddi bir al\u0131m geldi. Sebebini bilmiyorum. 2.9160 seviyelerindeki dolar bir anda 2.9250&#8217;nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki 60 dakikal\u0131k grafikte bunu g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43269\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/DOLAR-24-12-2015.png\" alt=\"DOLAR-24-12-2015\" width=\"562\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/DOLAR-24-12-2015.png 562w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/DOLAR-24-12-2015-300x187.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafikte 22 Aral\u0131k g\u00fcnk\u00fc 2.92&#8217;den 2.95&#8217;e sert \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n sebebi MB faiz karar\u0131yd\u0131 ama sonras\u0131nda dolar 2.9150 seviyelerine kadar geriledi. Karar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m periscope yay\u0131n\u0131nda bu konudaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini vermi\u015ftim ve dolar\u0131n 2.95&#8217;i ge\u00e7mesinin zor olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. Az \u00f6nce gelen al\u0131mlar\u0131n sebebini bilmiyorum ama bazen bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyecek bir kamu kurumu veya sendikasyon kredisini \u00f6deyecek bir bankan\u0131n ani al\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bu t\u00fcr hareketi yaratarak bankalar aras\u0131 piyasada dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine neden olabiliyor. \u00d6nemli olan konu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sebebidir. Bu sebebin dolarda trendi de\u011fi\u015ftirip de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fine ancak sebebi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra karar vermek laz\u0131m. Fakat yorumu yazarken \u015fu an i\u00e7in hareketin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Her zaman bu t\u00fcr ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar olabilir. Fakat \u015fu an i\u00e7in bildi\u011fimiz bir \u015fey var ki MB, dolar depo oranlar\u0131yla oynayarak d\u00f6viz likiditesini art\u0131rmay\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda da faizlerin \u00fcst koridorunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Bu durum net bir \u015fekilde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kana kadar dolar\u0131n 2.90-2.95 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz. \u015eu an i\u00e7in dolarda net bir trend beklemiyorum. 2.90 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilir ve saatlik bazda \u00a02.90 alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f olursa, 2.87-2.88 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rebiliriz. Dolar\u0131n yeniden 2.95 \u00fczerine oturmas\u0131 ve bu seviyelerde en az bir hafta kalmas\u0131 iyi sinyal olmaz. \u015eu an i\u00e7in bir iki haftal\u0131k s\u00fcre i\u00e7in hesaplar 2.90-2.95 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re yap\u0131labilir. Yine de beklenmedik olumsuz durumlar\u0131 her zaman g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurunuz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc sert yukar\u0131 hareketin ard\u0131ndan bakal\u0131m ne \u00e7\u0131kacak?<\/p>\n<p><strong>ALTIN<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik ALton-ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazdaki hareketlerini g\u00f6steriyor. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendde bulunan alt\u0131n en son 1050 dolar seviyelerine kadar geriledi ve son olarak 1070 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bulunuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-564642109\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-43280\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/ALTIN-24-12-2015.png\" alt=\"ALTIN-24-12-2015\" width=\"596\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/ALTIN-24-12-2015.png 596w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/ALTIN-24-12-2015-300x213.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 596px) 100vw, 596px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Alt\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonraki y\u00f6n\u00fc ABD&#8217;deki enflasyon ve faizlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. FED&#8217;\u0130n faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 20 dolarl\u0131k bantta dalgalar yapan alt\u0131n\u0131n, FED faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bundan sonra \u00f6zellikle ABD&#8217;deki enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011fim olu\u015fmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Uzun zamand\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalan alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir harekette 1.170 dolar civar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir direnci var. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise \u015fu an i\u00e7in 1050 dolar civar\u0131 destek olu\u015fturuyor. Elinde alt\u0131n olan varsa tutmal\u0131. Gram alt\u0131n daha \u00e7ok dolar\u0131n hareketlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir hareket yap\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcmzdeki bir iki ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde dolar\u0131n 2.85-2.95 aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 durumunda gram alt\u0131n\u0131n da 97-105 TL aras\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik borsan\u0131n son be\u015f g\u00fcndeki seans i\u00e7i hareketlerini g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcn bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakarak y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fayan BIST-100 endeksi bu sabah bir miktar gerilemeyle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. D\u00fcn 74.500&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-43258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43258\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}