{"id":43251,"date":"2015-12-23T22:52:19","date_gmt":"2015-12-23T20:52:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43251"},"modified":"2015-12-24T08:49:37","modified_gmt":"2015-12-24T06:49:37","slug":"merkezde-hayal-mi-baski-mi-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkezde-hayal-mi-baski-mi-var\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Merkez\u2019de hay\u00e2l mi; bask\u0131 m\u0131 var?  \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu ayki (PPK) Para Politikas\u0131 Toplant\u0131s\u0131\u2019nda, FED\u2019in de karar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyordu. PPK\u2019dan herhangi bir hareket \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Birilerinin s\u00f6yledi\u011fi gibi bu ekonomik ba\u015far\u0131dan olmasa da anla\u015f\u0131labilirdi. Zira d\u00fcnya ekonomilerinde noel ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131 sakinli\u011fi var.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3431260839\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Beklentinin aksine hareketsiz tutum bu pencereden anla\u015f\u0131labilirdi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 zaman\u0131 iyi kullanma se\u00e7ene\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat Ba\u015fkan Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n banka ekonomistleriyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca durum de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Art\u0131k \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde iki se\u00e7enek var. Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00f6netimi ya r\u00fcyada g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor ya da \u00e7ok ciddi bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda do\u011frular\u0131 yapam\u0131yor. Bir bask\u0131 kokusu zaten Be\u015ftepe dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131n\u0131n apar topar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcst\u00fcne bir de banka ekonomistlerinin yorumlar\u0131 eklenince tuz biber oldu. \u00c7ok net ifade edilmese de, faizin \u00fcst bantta indirime gidece\u011fi sinyali al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli.Bor\u00e7 verme faizini ifade eden koridorun bu noktas\u0131nda finansman nas\u0131l sa\u011flanacak?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer Merkez Bankas\u0131 bankalara daha ucuz kredi vermeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yorsa, ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler ve politikalar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan para gelmedi\u011fine ve gelmeyece\u011fine g\u00f6re, matbaay\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya m\u0131 haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor? Bu felaket olur ve s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi gibi s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 anlam\u0131na da gelmez.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hadi diyelim ki banka ekonomistleri olay\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlad\u0131. Ve yine kabul edelim ki Merkez \u00fczerinde herhangi bir bask\u0131 bulunmuyor. O zaman Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 hay\u00e2l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Sunumda bas\u0131na da yans\u0131yan ve \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan d\u00f6rt ba\u015fl\u0131k var. Bunlara bakal\u0131m: \u201cAvrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerinin talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da katk\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonu net ihracat lehine de\u011fi\u015fmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 verileri baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sahte b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131yla bile olsa T\u00fcrkiye, AB pazar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fclkesi. AB ekonomisinin ciddi bir daralma i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu ve parasal geni\u015fleme tiyatrosunun sonu\u00e7 vermedi\u011fi, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n paray\u0131 bat\u0131k \u00fclkelere kapt\u0131rmaya niyetli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2554898460\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan ihracat\u0131m\u0131zda da \u00f6yle dikkat \u00e7ekici bir art\u0131\u015f yok. Sadece d\u00fc\u015fen genel ihracat i\u00e7inde y\u00fczdesel bazda bir olumlu tablo var. \u00dcreticinin can \u00e7eki\u015fti\u011fi, Pazar terk etmemek i\u00e7in maliyet yapamadan mal satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00e2rs\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, d\u00fc\u015fen ihracatla, nas\u0131l bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi: \u201cEnerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler enflasyonu olumlu y\u00f6nde etkilemeye devam etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, birikimli d\u00f6viz kuru hareketleri \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon e\u011filimindeki iyile\u015fmeyi geciktirmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn t\u00fcketiciye yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyonun ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi bir yana, azalan y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn TL baz\u0131nda maliyetinin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu ifadeyi anlams\u0131z k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ifade s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 ve enflasyon \u00fczerindeki t\u00fcketici davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise, para pompalama e\u011filimi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve t\u00fcketicinin harcayamama yetisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme zorunlulu\u011funa bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7ok ho\u015f bir tablo olu\u015fmuyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1531917611\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En bombas\u0131 da d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131k: \u201cK\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fmenin ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte oynakl\u0131klarda g\u00f6zlenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131dan itibaren para politikas\u0131ndaki sadele\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flanabilecektir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131nda herhangi bir normalle\u015fme s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Finans\u0131 y\u00f6neten \u00fclkelerin uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 politikalar ise bizim boyay\u0131 tamamen d\u00f6k\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne inan\u0131yor olamaz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc durum b\u00f6yle de\u011fil ve bunu bilecek bilgi seviyesindeler.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6yleyse bu laf cambazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde geriye iki alternatif kal\u0131yor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ya hay\u00e2l g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ya da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda? Yan\u0131t\u0131 gelir mi; bilinmez. Ama Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcreci Nisan 2016\u2019da bitiyor. Ba\u015fkan oraya kadar dayanabilecek mi; i\u015fte as\u0131l yan\u0131t bekleyen soru da bu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hepsinin yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n kokusu ise, en ge\u00e7 Ocak 2016\u2019daki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. G\u00f6rece\u011fiz\u2026 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kumarhanenin bask\u0131lar\u0131yla, pop\u00fclist siyaset yapanlar aras\u0131nda fark yok.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ve bu kadar sorunun \u00fczerine, bir de Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 bu durumlara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrenlerle, y\u0131llarca yol arkada\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 edenlerin k\u0131s\u0131r ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck siyasetiyle u\u011fra\u015fmak hi\u00e7 ho\u015f olmaz. Ke\u015fke ger\u00e7ekten milli ekonomiden yana olsalar; ama ne yaz\u0131k ki s\u00f6ylemleriyle eylemleri tutmuyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu ayki (PPK) Para Politikas\u0131 Toplant\u0131s\u0131\u2019nda, FED\u2019in de karar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyordu. PPK\u2019dan herhangi bir hareket \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Birilerinin s\u00f6yledi\u011fi gibi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-43251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43251\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}