{"id":4323,"date":"2011-08-22T12:04:38","date_gmt":"2011-08-22T09:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4323"},"modified":"2011-08-22T12:04:38","modified_gmt":"2011-08-22T09:04:38","slug":"piyasalar-jackson-hole%e2%80%99den-umdugunu-bulamayabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/piyasalar-jackson-hole%e2%80%99den-umdugunu-bulamayabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar Jackson Hole\u2019den umdu\u011funu bulamayabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Piyasalar Jackson Hole\u2019den umdu\u011funu bulamayabilir<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>AB\u2019de bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne g\u00fcvence verilmeli:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3232186989\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">K\u00fcresel piyasalar Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn olu\u015fturdu\u011fu endi\u015feler ve k\u00fcresel ekonominin yava\u015f yava\u015f resesyona gidiyor olmas\u0131 sebebiyle s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fcnler ge\u00e7irmeye devam ediyor. \u00d6zellikle Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne dair endi\u015feler ve bu endi\u015felerin getirdi\u011fi yerli yersiz spek\u00fclasyonlar finansal piyasalardaki volatilitenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da ABD\u2019de d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar\u0131n ABD\u2019de faaliyet g\u00f6steren Avrupa k\u00f6kenli bankalar hakk\u0131nda inceleme ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberiyle finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde borsalarda yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130lerleyen g\u00fcnlerde Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne dair yeni d\u00fczenlemeler ve devlet te\u015fvikleri ve garantileri g\u00fcndeme gelmedik\u00e7e bu t\u00fcr spek\u00fclasyonlara daha uzun s\u00fcre maruz kalmam\u0131z olas\u0131. Son iki haftad\u0131r ya\u015fanan k\u00fcresel t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir krizi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in at\u0131lacak en \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlardan birinin Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanan g\u00fcven erozyonunun etkilerinin silinmesi ve g\u00fcvenin yeniden tahsis edilmesi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda i\u015fler nas\u0131l giderse gitsin AB taraf\u0131nda \u00fclke bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ve bu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu negatif bask\u0131 atlat\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki haftaya benzer s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin tekrarlanabilece\u011finden \u015f\u00fcphe olmas\u0131n. Bu nedenle \u00f6zellikle uzun vadeli al\u0131m yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin aceleci olmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>ABD\u2019de sorun resesyon endi\u015fesi:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki sorun \u00fclke bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskin tam olarak hesaplanamamas\u0131 iken ABD taraf\u0131nda endi\u015felerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerine kuruldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle AB taraf\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e istatistikleri ve yeni bor\u00e7lanma oranlar\u0131 izleyece\u011fimiz en \u00f6nemli veriler haline gelirken, ABD taraf\u0131nda \u00fcretim, istihdam gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 ile do\u011fudan ili\u015fkili veriler \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te FED\u2019in nas\u0131l bir politika izleyece\u011fi ise ABD taraf\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddesi. Bu nedenle bu hafta FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin Jackson Hole\u2019de ekonomi \u00fczerine yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u00e7ok \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130 17:00\u2019da ba\u015flayacak bu konu\u015fma FED\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda izleyece\u011fi politikalar hakk\u0131nda ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 verece\u011fi i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131n bu konu\u015fmaya reaksiyonu \u00e7ok sert olabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>Asya b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeli:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve ABD bir taraftan tasarruf tedbirleri uygulamak zorunda kal\u0131rken di\u011fer taraftan k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye muhta\u00e7 durumdalar. Bu s\u00fcrecin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fleyebilmesinin tek yolu ise ba\u015fta Asya olmak \u00fczere AB ve ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi te\u015fvik edici politikalar izlemesi. Bu hafta Jackson Hole\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan Maliye Bakanlar\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar iyi analiz edilmeli. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n piyasalar \u00fczerindeki etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta hissedilecekken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de piyasalar\u0131n Ramazan Bayram\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 olacak olmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fanabilecek sert dalgalanmalardan uzak kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Fakat d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda ya\u015fanacak hareketlerin ve olu\u015fan fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7eride tatil ard\u0131ndan tek seferde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta fiyatlanacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kald\u0131rabileceklerinden fazla pozisyon bulundurmamalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>PPK en \u00f6nemli i\u00e7 g\u00fcndem:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130\u00e7 g\u00fcndem bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise ekonomi ajandas\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu Toplant\u0131s\u0131. Hat\u0131rlanacak olursa Banka en son 4 A\u011fustos tarihinde planlarda olmayan bir ara toplant\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f ve bu toplant\u0131da k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama endi\u015felerine vurgu yaparak politika faizinde 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u00fcrpriz bir indirim ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Bunun yan\u0131nda gecelik bor\u00e7lanama faizlerinde de \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f yaparak faiz koridorunu da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daraltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda da d\u00f6viz DTH\u2019larda zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda yar\u0131m puanl\u0131k indirim yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f ihaleleri yoluyla piyasaya d\u00f6viz likiditesi sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu hafta yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131dan ise bizim beklentimiz, d\u00f6viz cinsi DTH\u2019lar\u0131nda zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda yeni bir indirim ve politika faizlerinde maksimum 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim daha ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Karar\u0131n bu y\u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda \u00f6nceki faiz indirimi s\u00fcrecinde ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir panik ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Aksine bu y\u00f6nde kararlar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve bu kararlar\u0131n ek tedbirlerle desteklenmesi piyasalarda pozitif olarak alg\u0131lanabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-737315224\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde ter\u00f6r sorununu ile ilgili beklentilerimizde ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftakinden \u00e7ok fazla bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu hafta yeniden g\u00fcndeme alm\u0131yoruz. Fakat bu konunun da ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta \u00e7izdi\u011fimiz perspektif d\u00e2hilinde izlenmeye devam edilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff\">Riskler hala \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Teknik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da de\u011ferlendirecek olmakla birlikte, piyasalarda son iki hafta ya\u015fanan t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n nedenlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bu sorunlara \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz. Benzer \u015fekilde hisse senetlerindeki \u015fuan ki fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bulmakla birlikte taban olu\u015ftu\u011fu konusunda ciddi endi\u015felerimiz var. Bununla paralel olarak borsalarda ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen diplerin \u00e7ok daha alt\u0131nda yeni diplerin olu\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da en az %40 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle de g\u00fcn i\u00e7i ya da birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck vadede portf\u00f6y\u00fcn tamam\u0131n\u0131 riske atmadan c\u00fczi bir tutarla trade edilmesinde bir sak\u0131nca g\u00f6rmemekle birlikte, orta ve uzun vadeli al\u0131m i\u00e7in uygun ortam\u0131n olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerden \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kanlar:<\/strong><\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2507625113\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>22 A\u011fustos\u00a0 2011 Pazartesi:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:30 \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye TCMB Beklenti Anketi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Chicago FED Ulusal Aktivite Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye Temmuz Ay\u0131 Hazine Toplam Bor\u00e7 Stoku<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>23 A\u011fustos\u00a0 2011 Sal\u0131:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 Euro B\u00f6lgesi A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 ZEW Anketi \u2013 Ekonomik Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12:00 \u2013 Almanya A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 ZEW Anketi \u2013 Ekonomik Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:00 \u2013 TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu Faiz Oran\u0131 Karar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>24 A\u011fustos\u00a0 2011 \u00c7ar\u015famba:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 11:00 \u2013 Almanya A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 IFO Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Temmuz Ay\u0131 Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00 \u2013 ABD Haziran Ay\u0131 Konut Fiyat Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>25 A\u011fustos\u00a0 2011 Per\u015fembe:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:30 \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 TU\u0130K Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>26 A\u011fustos\u00a0 2011 Cuma:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10:00 \u2013 TCMB PPK Toplant\u0131 Tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131klayacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD 2. \u00c7eyrek GSYH<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15:30 \u2013 ABD 2. \u00c7eyrek Ki\u015fisel Harcamalar<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 16:55 \u2013 ABD A\u011fustos Ay\u0131 Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17:00\u00a0 \u2013 FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke konu\u015fma yapacak<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>\u0130MKB 30 TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130MKB\u2019de y\u00fcksek volatilite ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da devam etti. 60,350 ile 66,500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket eden spot \u0130MKB 30\u2019da g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde dahi 3-4 bin puanl\u0131k hareketler g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. Bu y\u00fcksek volatilite yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ve beklentilerinin de s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fmesine neden oluyor. S\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fen beklentiler de yanl\u0131\u015f kararlar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu nedenle bu gibi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen hareketlerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde izlemede kal\u0131nmas\u0131 ya da portf\u00f6ylerin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranlar\u0131yla i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131 daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Teknik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise hen\u00fcz net bir dip olu\u015fumu g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta gerek haftal\u0131k gerekse g\u00fcnl\u00fck b\u00fcltenlerimizde s\u00fcrekli olarak 65,500 civar\u0131na kadar bir tepki beklentimiz oldu\u011funu dile getirmi\u015f ve bu seviyelerden nakde ge\u00e7erek yeniden al\u0131m i\u00e7in 61,000 civar\u0131na kadar beklenmesi gerekti\u011fini dile getirmi\u015ftik. Haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fc ise bekledi\u011fimiz bu gerileme olsa da al\u0131m i\u00e7in aceleci olunmamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tavsiyelerde bulunmu\u015ftuk. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc bug\u00fcn de koruyoruz. Piyasalardaki volatilite d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir tahmin de bulunman\u0131n \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle de \u0130MKB 30\u2019da yeni diplerin olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6rmeden ya da 66,500 \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 teyit etmeden yeni al\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru bulmuyoruz. Bu \u015fartlar sa\u011flanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar\u0131n devam edece\u011fi kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u0130MKB 30\u2019a bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde 51,500 civar\u0131na kadar yeni bir gerileme ya\u015fanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ciddi oranda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Endeksin 60,000 alt\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015flar bu s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatabilir. Bu nedenle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda 60,000 alt\u0131nda riskin \u00e7ok daha fazla artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde ise 66,500 ge\u00e7ilip bu seviye \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sadece tepki olarak g\u00f6rmeye devam edece\u011fiz. 66,500\u2019\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda ise al\u0131nacak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n riskinin daha az olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 72,000 civar\u0131na kadar bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong>USD\/TL TEKN\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sert hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131n, Dolar\/TL kurundaki hareketlerin g\u00f6receli olarak daha dar bir banda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Dolar\/TL kuru ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funda 1,7650 ile 1,7950 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da dile getirdi\u011fimiz \u00fczere \u00f6zellikle orta ve uzun vadeli pozisyonlarda 1,80 civar\u0131ndan kademeli olarak TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00f6neriyoruz. Kurun 1,80 \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015flar yapmas\u0131 durumunda 1,85\u2019e kadar bir hareket potansiyeli daha olsa ada y\u0131l sonuna kadarki s\u00fcre\u00e7te yeniden al\u0131m i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha uygun seviyelerin g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en hafta da dile getirdi\u011fimiz gibi kurda teknik olarak ilk etapta 1,72 civar\u0131na kadar bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemdeki beklentimiz ise bu gerilemenin 1,62-1,66 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar devam etmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Y\u0131l sonu hedefi olarak kurda bu seviyeleri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu seviyelerin de alt\u0131na sarkma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kapital Menkul De\u011ferler A.\u015e.<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong>T\u00fcrev Ara\u00e7lar Birimi \/ Uzman<\/strong><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Tel: 0212 330 04 70<\/strong><strong><br \/>\nFax<strong>: 0212 330 0 369<\/strong><\/strong><strong><br \/>\n<strong><a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nhttp:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">www.kapitalmenkul.com.tr<br \/> <\/a><\/strong><\/strong><a title=\"blocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\nblocked::mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\nblocked::http:\/\/www.kapitalmenkul.com.trudogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\/\" href=\"mailto:udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr\"><strong>udogan@kapitalmenkul.com.tr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<strong>UYARI: <\/strong>Burada yer alan yat\u0131r\u0131m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda degildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 hizmeti; Arac\u0131 kurumlar, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim sirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m\u00fcsteri aras\u0131nda imzalanacak yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131smanl\u0131g\u0131 s\u00f6zlesmesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sunulmaktad\u0131r. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar\u0131n kisisel g\u00f6r\u00fcslerine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcsler, mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonu\u00e7lar dogurmayabilir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar Jackson Hole\u2019den umdu\u011funu bulamayabilir AB\u2019de bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne g\u00fcvence verilmeli:\u00a0 K\u00fcresel piyasalar Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn olu\u015fturdu\u011fu endi\u015feler ve k\u00fcresel ekonominin yava\u015f yava\u015f resesyona gidiyor&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4323\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}