{"id":43214,"date":"2015-12-22T09:44:13","date_gmt":"2015-12-22T07:44:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43214"},"modified":"2015-12-22T09:44:13","modified_gmt":"2015-12-22T07:44:13","slug":"tcmb-karari-mi-sonrasindaki-tepkiler-mi-onemli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tcmb-karari-mi-sonrasindaki-tepkiler-mi-onemli\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB Karar\u0131 m\u0131, Sonras\u0131ndaki Tepkiler Mi \u00d6nemli?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) bug\u00fcn y\u0131l\u0131n son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. Anketlere g\u00f6re, politika faizi ve faiz koridorunda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeyenler de var, politika faizinde 125 baz puan (bp) art\u0131r\u0131m bekleyenler de. Peki, beklentilerde neden bu denli farkl\u0131l\u0131k var? Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda TCMB\u2019nin radikal bir \u00f6nlem almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler 100 \u2013 125 bp gibi sert bir art\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 savunurken; son d\u00f6nemlerde siyasi kanattan faiz konusunda gelen mesajlar\u0131 dikkate alanlar faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-463258755\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Beklentiler bu kadar ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131nca; TCMB ne karar al\u0131rsa als\u0131n, herkesin bu karardan memnun olmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Anketlerde,<\/p>\n<p>TCMB 1 Hafta Vadeli Repo Faizine (Politika Faizi) y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, 0 \u2013 125 bp;<br \/>\nTCMB Gecelik Bor\u00e7 Alma Faizine (Alt Bant) y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, 0 \u2013 125 bp;<br \/>\nTCMB Gecelik Bor\u00e7 Verme Faizine (\u00dcst Bant) y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, -25 \u2013 0 bp aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Anketlerin medyan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 politika faizinde 50 bp, alt bantta 25 bp art\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u00fcst bantta ise de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131nlanan TCMB Beklenti Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re ise politika faizinin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda % 7.75, 3 ay sonra % 8.25, 6 ay sonra ise % 8.50 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde politika faizi % 7.50, faiz koridorunun alt band\u0131 % 7.25, \u00fcst bant ise % 10.75 seviyesinde.<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-1.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43215\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43215 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-1.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan TCMB-22122015-1\" width=\"517\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-1.png 517w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-1-300x221.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 517px) 100vw, 517px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n\u015eimdi, beklentiler bu kadar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kken; <em>\u201cTCMB bug\u00fcn ne yapar ve neden yapar?\u201d<\/em> sorusunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m. TCMB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn politika faizini 25 ya da 50 bp (muhtemelen 25 bp) ve faiz koridorunun alt band\u0131n\u0131 25 bp art\u0131rarak ve faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131na dokunmayarak; faiz koridorunu yukar\u0131 do\u011fru daraltmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Genelden \u00f6zele giderek beklentimin gerek\u00e7elerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><em>TCMB, Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ve koridoru daraltmaya ba\u015flamal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc,<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u2026 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ve 2016 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politikas\u0131 Metninin ekinde yeniden payla\u015f\u0131lan \u201cK\u00fcresel Para Politikalar\u0131n\u0131n Normalle\u015fme S\u00fcrecinde \u0130zlenecek Yol Haritas\u0131\u201dnda ve s\u00f6zl\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda; Fed\u2019in normalle\u015fme ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 atmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, para politikas\u0131nda sadele\u015fme kapsam\u0131nda, faiz koridorunun, bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 etraf\u0131nda daha simetrik bir hale getirilece\u011fi ve daralt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.\n<ul>\n<li>\u2026 Ayn\u0131 yol haritas\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in yapaca\u011f\u0131 her faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ertesinde, ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden tutulan yabanc\u0131 para zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klara \u00f6denen faizin Fed\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131m kadar art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 da taahh\u00fct edildi. Bu taahh\u00fct ge\u00e7en haftaki Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan uyguland\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u2026 TCMB\u2019nin anayasal g\u00f6revi uzun vadeli fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak. Merkez Bankas\u0131, her ne kadar % 5 hedefinin tutturamamakla ele\u015ftirilse de hem ortalama enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri hem de enflasyon beklentileri s\u00fcrekli olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitmektedir. TCMB\u2019nin, bunca beklenmedik geli\u015fmelere ve gereksiz tart\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen enflasyon konusunda son derece ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ancak, son d\u00f6nemlerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen, beklenen ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik olumlu sinyaller vermedi\u011finden, y\u0131llar itibariyle enflasyon taraf\u0131nda elde edilen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 ve devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131 zaruri h\u00e2le gelmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>\u2026 K\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler lehine seyredecektir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan reel getiri anlam\u0131nda cazibesini korumas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-2.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43216\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43216 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-2.png\" alt=\"Erol G\u00fcrcan TCMB-22122015-2\" width=\"397\" height=\"301\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-2.png 397w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Erol-G\u00fcrcan-TCMB-22122015-2-300x227.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 397px) 100vw, 397px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u2026 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren TL\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seyrin; enflasyon ve enflasyon bekleyi\u015fleri \u00fczerindeki etkilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla Mart ay\u0131 ortas\u0131ndan itibaren likidite ihtiyac\u0131, bir hafta vadeli miktar repo ihalesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra giderek artan bir oranla marjinal fonlama ile sa\u011flanmakta; bu da A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k Ortalama Fonlama Faizinin (AOFF) politika faizine k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine neden olmaktad\u0131r. Mealen, son d\u00f6nemlerde piyasadaki fonlaman\u0131n politika faizinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 125 baz puan \u00fczerinden yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Normal \u015fartlarda politika faiziyle yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyir izlemesi gereken AOFF\u2019nin, bu denli ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da sadele\u015fme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karan unsurlardan biridir. Faiz koridorunun kademeli bir \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc daralt\u0131lmas\u0131 ile birlikte politika faizi ve AOFF aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma kapanarak para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha sade bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme kavu\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flanacak (\u00f6nceki PPK a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ile 2016 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para ve Kur Politkas\u0131 Metni, politika faizinin kademeli bir \u015fekilde mevcut AOFF seviyelerine do\u011fru y\u00fckseltilece\u011fini i\u015faret etmektedir).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Buraya kadar genel olarak TCMB\u2019nin neden faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ve faiz koridorunu daraltmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u015eimdi biraz daha \u00f6zele giderek bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131ya ili\u015fkin beklentilerimin gerek\u00e7elerine gelelim:<\/p>\n<p><em>Politika faizinde 25 ya da 50 bp (muhtemelen 25 bp) ve Faiz koridorunun alt band\u0131nda 25 bp art\u0131r\u0131m bekliyorum\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u2026 TCMB, taahh\u00fct etti\u011fi gibi Fed karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda koridoru daraltmaya ba\u015flamal\u0131<\/li>\n<li>\u2026 Fed\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 0.25\u2019lik faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada radikal bir \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirmiyor; h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131 gelecek d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in saklanmal\u0131<\/li>\n<li>\u2026 Fed muhtemelen Mart\u2019a kadar faiz art\u0131rmayacak; TCMB gerekirse Mart ay\u0131na kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi her ayki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na devam edebilir<\/li>\n<li>\u2026 Fed\u2019e yaslanarak da olsa h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 siyasi kanattan gelebilecek negatif a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ihtimalini art\u0131racak ve TCMB\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden sorgulan\u0131r h\u00e2le getirecektir<\/li>\n<li>2016 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca Fed\u2019in 8 FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. Bunlar\u0131n 3 \u2013 4\u2019\u00fcnde kademeli faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gitmesi bekleniyor. TCMB\u2019nin ise 12 toplant\u0131s\u0131 bulunuyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u015fu a\u015famada Fed kaynakl\u0131 herhangi bir \u015fok durumu s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan olabildi\u011fince \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc olacak bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla sadele\u015fme s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatmak TCMB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor<\/li>\n<li>Son \u00e7eyrek boyunca kurlar\u0131n g\u00f6rece daha sakin bir seyir izlemesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrin devam etmesi ve para politikas\u0131nda at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131n reel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin verilere 3 \u2013 6 ayl\u0131k bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde yans\u0131yacak olmas\u0131 da h\u0131zl\u0131dan ziyade \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n veriyor<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>TCMB, \u00fcst bantta de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmez; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc,<\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-719764782\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\u2026 TCMB faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 bir nevi emniyet kemeri olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. Uygulanan para politikas\u0131 olas\u0131 \u015foklarda faizlerin \u00fcst banda kadar y\u00fckseltilebilmesi imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, risklerde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden \u00fcst banda dokunulmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyorum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, yukar\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131m gerek\u00e7elerle, TCMB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla koridoru yukar\u0131 do\u011fru daraltmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 bir\u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan do\u011fru ad\u0131m gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak, en ba\u015fta belirtti\u011fim gibi, ne karar \u00e7\u0131karsa \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi bu karardan muhtemelen memnun olmayacakt\u0131r. Faizlerde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidilmemesi ya da sert bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelmesi h\u00e2linde daha sert olmak \u00fczere; karar sonras\u0131nda endekste sat\u0131\u015f ile dolar\/TL ve tahvil faizlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Son s\u00f6z olarak, toplant\u0131dan gelecek karardan ziyade; karar sonras\u0131nda siyasilerden gelmesi muhtemel a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Zira, bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar <em>T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi\u2019nin yak\u0131n gelecekte \u201ciktisadi realizm\u201dle mi yoksa \u201csiyasi pop\u00fclizm\u201dle mi idare edilece\u011fini net bir \u015fekilde ortaya koyabilir\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) bug\u00fcn y\u0131l\u0131n son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek. Anketlere g\u00f6re, politika faizi ve faiz koridorunda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeyenler de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1513,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362,1625],"class_list":["post-43214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi","tag-merkez-bankasi-para-politikasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43214\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}