{"id":43181,"date":"2015-12-21T10:09:52","date_gmt":"2015-12-21T08:09:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43181"},"modified":"2015-12-21T23:07:41","modified_gmt":"2015-12-21T21:07:41","slug":"tcmb-suriye-konusu-borsa-ve-dolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tcmb-suriye-konusu-borsa-ve-dolar\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB, Suriye Konusu, Borsa ve Dolar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Bu haftaya ba\u015flarken en \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerden biri ekonomi de\u011fil, uluslararas\u0131 siyaset olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Suriye\u2019nin siyasi diyalo\u011fa ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 haberi hem T\u00fcrkiye hem de k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nem arz ediyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3561648485\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu konudaki haberi ba\u015ftan sona dikkatli okumakta fayda var (haber kayna\u011f\u0131:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/tr.sputniknews.com\/ortadogu\/20151218\/1019755779\/suriye-bmgk-tasari.html\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/tr.sputniknews.com\/ortadogu\/20151218\/1019755779\/suriye-bmgk-tasari.html <\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi (BMGK), Suriye&#8217;de siyasi diyalog s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve \u00fclke genelinde ate\u015fkes ilan edilmesini isteyen ve Cenevre Bildirisi ile Viyana toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 teyit eden tasar\u0131y\u0131 oy birli\u011fiyle kabul etti.\u00a0S\u00fcrecin, Suriyeliler \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ve t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131n r\u0131zas\u0131yla tam y\u00fcr\u00fctme g\u00fcc\u00fc olan ge\u00e7i\u015f h\u00fck\u00fcmeti kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Borsa<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-43186\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-20-12-2015-A.png\" alt=\"BIST-100-20-12-2015-A\" width=\"495\" height=\"352\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-20-12-2015-A.png 623w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-20-12-2015-A-300x213.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 495px) 100vw, 495px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki grafik endeksin Per\u015fembe ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 5 dakikal\u0131k fiyat hareketleridir. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc endeksin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u00fczerine \u00e7ok mail ald\u0131m. Herkes yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ip ge\u00e7mediklerini soruyordu. Halbuki o sabah yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131da borsan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f piyasalara endeksli gidece\u011fini ve d\u0131\u015f piyasalarla uyumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc sergileyece\u011fini, bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f piyasalar\u0131 izlemesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131m. Yukar\u0131daki grafikte siyah mum grafikleri BIST-100 endeksini g\u00f6sterirken, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 mumlar ise DAX endeksinin 5 dakikal\u0131k hareketlerini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Dikkat edilirse \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131 bir ili\u015fki var. DAX endeksini etkileyen temel fakt\u00f6r olarak ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131 verebiliriz. Burada grafi\u011fi vermiyorum ama \u00f6zellikle dow ve S&amp;P500 future endeksleri Dax endeksinin g\u00fcn i\u00e7i hareketlerini \u00e7ok etkiliyor.\u00a0Bu grafi\u011fi vermemin sebebi ise, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6zel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamak i\u00e7indi.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik endeksin g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketlerini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-43187\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-20-12-2015-B.png\" alt=\"BIST-100-20-12-2015-B\" width=\"487\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-20-12-2015-B.png 619w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-20-12-2015-B-300x221.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 487px) 100vw, 487px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Endeks ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131mda\u00a0endeksin 5 hafta arka arkaya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ge\u00e7en hafta y\u00fckseli\u015f yapmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek, hisselerde sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6nermemi\u015ftim.\u00a0Endeks Fibonacci\u2019nin %23.6 \u00e7izgisini yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7tikten sonra Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc tekrar alt\u0131na indi ama bu haftaya ba\u015flarken, Suriye\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerin olumlu etkisini g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi zannediyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3948445749\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hisselerde pek pozisyon bozulmas\u0131 taraftar\u0131 de\u011filim. K\u0131sa vadede \u00e7ok beklenmedik olumsuz geli\u015fmeler olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yeniden 70 binli seviyelere d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclece\u011fini zannetmiyorum. \u0130lk hedef 75 bin civar\u0131 olup, buras\u0131 ge\u00e7ildi\u011finde en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 77 binde bulunuyor. Bu hafta i\u00e7inde 77 binin yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesini beklemiyorum ama Ocak ay\u0131 sonuna kadar olan d\u00f6nemde beklenmedik olumsuz geli\u015fmeler olmazsa yeniden 80 bin seviyesinin \u00fczerine oturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sabah \u00a0endeks cuma kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 900 puan yukar\u0131da bulunuyor ve 73.150 civar\u0131nda hareket ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakt\u0131. 73.500 seviyesini zorlayabilir ama bu arada a\u00e7\u0131lan bo\u015flu\u011fun da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde (ne zaman oldu\u011funu bilmiyoruz) doldurulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. Bu bo\u015fluk doldurma i\u015fi \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede olaca\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre sonra da olabilir. Bu y\u00fczden sanki\u00a0bug\u00fcn dolma zorunlulu\u011fu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyin. \u00a0Endeksin bug\u00fcn 72.750 seviyesini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Ge\u00e7en hafta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m gibi, bu hafta da d\u0131\u015f piyasalara endeksli bir hareket beklenebilir. TCMB&#8217;nin faiz karar\u0131 yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyorum ama faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olacak olursa (bask\u0131lar nedeniyle) piyasa \u00e7ok olumsuz reaksiyon verebilir. Fakat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme veya y\u00fckseltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Bu arada e\u011fer 7.50 olan faiz 7.75 veya 8.0&#8217;e y\u00fckseltilirse bu piyasada olumlu alg\u0131lan\u0131r ama bu t\u00fcr bir karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8217;ndan yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar veya ele\u015ftiriler bir anda piyasalar\u0131 terse \u00e7evirir. Bu y\u00fczden e\u011fer faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olur da piyasalar olumlu reaksiyon verirse, \u00a0&#8220;nas\u0131l olsa yine kavga \u00e7\u0131kar&#8221; \u00a0diye sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 cebine koyan \u00e7ok olur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dolar\/TL<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-43188\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-20-12-2015.png\" alt=\"dolar-20-12-2015\" width=\"475\" height=\"341\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-20-12-2015.png 619w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-20-12-2015-300x215.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kuru ge\u00e7en hafta FED \u00f6ncesinde 3\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131 fakat 3 seviyesini g\u00f6rmeden tekrar geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 2.9350 ile 2.94 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir destek vard\u0131 ama e\u011fer ge\u00e7en hafta FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00c7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131 Youtube\u2019dan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m FED \u00d6zel yay\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 izlemi\u015fseniz, genel olarak 2.90 seviyesine ve hatta bu seviyenin alt\u0131na gerileme bekledi\u011fimi belirtmi\u015ftim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-532935904\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Teknik analizde kullan\u0131lan trend analizi, destek, diren\u00e7 ve g\u00f6sterge kurallar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2.9350 deste\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Dolar ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 2.9064 seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Bu hafta Avrupa ve Amerika\u2019da Christmas (Noel) tatili ba\u015flayacak ve bu tatil \u00f6ncesinde genellikle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hacim d\u00fc\u015fer, ilgi azal\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca veri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yo\u011fun de\u011fil. \u00d6nemli verilerden baz\u0131lar\u0131 var ama FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve danan\u0131n kuyru\u011fu koptu\u011fu i\u00e7in, Ocak ay\u0131nda da yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmedi\u011finden (1 ayda enflasyon roket gibi artmayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re) dolar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 azalacakt\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden de bu hafta i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direnci 2.9350-2.94 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olacak ve 2.90 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 2.86-2.88 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\u00a02.94\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p yeniden 3 seviyelerine do\u011fru hareket etmesi i\u00e7in, \u015fu an \u00f6nemli bir gerek\u00e7e bulunmuyor. \u015eunu da belirteyim ki, dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeki en \u00f6nemli etkilerinden biri Suriye\u00a0 haberiydi.<\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn dile\u011fiyle&#8230;\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu haftaya ba\u015flarken en \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerden biri ekonomi de\u011fil, uluslararas\u0131 siyaset olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Suriye\u2019nin siyasi diyalo\u011fa ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 haberi hem T\u00fcrkiye hem de k\u00fcresel&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-43181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43181"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43181\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}