{"id":43176,"date":"2015-12-21T09:54:18","date_gmt":"2015-12-21T07:54:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43176"},"modified":"2015-12-21T10:23:57","modified_gmt":"2015-12-21T08:23:57","slug":"haftalik-makroekonomik-gorunum-ve-bist-100-dolartl-teknik-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/haftalik-makroekonomik-gorunum-ve-bist-100-dolartl-teknik-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Haftal\u0131k Makroekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve BIST-100 &#038; Dolar\/TL Teknik Analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Y\u0131l\u0131n en kritik haftalar\u0131ndan birini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Fed, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r beklenen Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcrecine resmen ba\u015flad\u0131. Avrupa ve Japonya Merkez Bankalar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fleyici politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcklerini ve bir s\u00fcre daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorunda olduklar\u0131n\u0131 dikkat alarak, k\u00fcresel anlamda para politikas\u0131nda son derece \u00f6nemli bir ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin de resmen ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Fed, kendinden bekleneni yapt\u0131. Peki, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) da kendinden bekleneni yapacak m\u0131?<\/strong> <\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3388932447\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Yeni Haftan\u0131n Yurti\u00e7i Ekonomi G\u00fcndemi: TCMB Faiz Karar\u0131<\/strong><br \/>\nYeni haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddesi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan y\u0131l\u0131n son Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan para politikas\u0131ndaki sadele\u015fme yol haritas\u0131ndan bu yana sadele\u015fme kapsam\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok ad\u0131m atan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) politika faizi ve faiz koridorundaki sadele\u015fme i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmekteydi. TCMB, daha \u00f6nce taahh\u00fct etti\u011fi gibi, Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7en hafta ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesinin ertesinde yabanc\u0131 para zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klara \u00f6dedi\u011fi faiz oran\u0131nda bir d\u00fczenlemeye gitti. Normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde faiz koridorunun bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 etraf\u0131nda daha simetrik bir hale getirilece\u011fini ve daralt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden TCMB\u2019nin bu haftaki toplant\u0131da politika faizi ve faiz koridorunun alt band\u0131nda 25\u2019er baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131ma gitmesini, koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131nda ise de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. TCMB\u2019nin PPK\u2019dan bir g\u00fcn sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi Banka Ekonomist ve Analist Bilgilendirme Toplant\u0131s\u0131 da, Fed sonras\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin duru\u015funun daha net anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan takip edilmeli. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi (\u00d6nceki: 77.15) ve Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 Merkezi Y\u00f6netim Bor\u00e7 Stoku (\u00d6nceki: 677.6 milyar); \u00c7ar\u015famba Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (\u00d6nceki Y\u0131ll\u0131k: % 8.8); Cuma Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 Sekt\u00f6rel G\u00fcven Endeksleri de hafta boyunca a\u00e7\u0131klanacak di\u011fer veriler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43177 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-1.png\" alt=\"21122015-1\" width=\"507\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-1.png 507w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-1-300x189.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 507px) 100vw, 507px\" \/><br \/>\n<strong>Ge\u00e7en Hafta \u0130\u015fsizlik, B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi ve TCMB Beklenti Anketi takip edildi<\/strong><br \/>\nGe\u00e7en hafta yurti\u00e7inde sakin bir ekonomik takvim takip edildi. Haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli verileri Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 \u0130\u015fsizlik ve Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi verileriydi. Beklenildi\u011fi gibi her iki veride de \u00f6nemli bir s\u00fcrpriz g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi ve her iki verinin de piyasa \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir etkisi olmad\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.2 puan artarak % 10.3 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00f6ylelikle y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 9 ay\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k % 10.33 seviyesindeki beklentimizle uyumlu bir \u015fekilde % 10.22 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Mevsimsel etkilerin ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki zay\u0131f seyrin etkisiyle i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Ekim \u2013 Aral\u0131k d\u00f6neminde de hafif\u00e7e artmaya devam edece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 11 ay\u0131 itibariyle b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 5.43 milyar TL ile y\u0131ll\u0131k 20.96 milyar TL\u2019lik hedefin rahatl\u0131kla yakalanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha teyit etti. Faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazlan\u0131n da 11 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde, y\u0131ll\u0131k 33.04 milyar TL\u2019lik hedefin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde 45.84 milyar TL seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da b\u00fct\u00e7e rakamlar\u0131 ad\u0131na bir di\u011fer olumlu geli\u015fme olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan y\u0131l\u0131n son TCMB Beklenti Anketi\u2019nde 2015 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentileri y\u0131l boyunca g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine devam ederek % 8.53 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi (Kas\u0131m Anket: % 8.36).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43178 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-2.png\" alt=\"21122015-2\" width=\"633\" height=\"369\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-2.png 633w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-2-300x175.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 633px) 100vw, 633px\" \/><br \/>\n<strong>Yeni anahtar s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u201ckademeli\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n \u00e7ok uzun zamand\u0131r bekledi\u011fi oldu ve Fed 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131ma giderek politika faizi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 0.00 \u2013 0.25\u2019ten 0.25 \u2013 0.50 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltirken; gelecek d\u00f6nemdeki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 3 ya da 4 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesi beklenen Fed\u2019in, bundan sonraki toplant\u0131lara ait yay\u0131nlayaca\u011f\u0131 metinlerde takip edece\u011fimiz anahtar kelime \u201ckademeli\u201d faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olacak. \u0130stihdam piyasalar\u0131ndaki olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, Fed\u2019in bundan sonraki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 ve kararlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f ticaretin seyri \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli bir hale geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bu iki verinin seyrinin de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve dolar endeksinin seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatmakta fayda var. Yine de Fed\u2019in ABD ekonomisindeki toparlanmadan olduk\u00e7a emin oldu\u011funu dikkate alarak, barda\u011f\u0131n dolu taraf\u0131na bakacak olursak ekonomideki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin ABD\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f mallara olan talebini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ve k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131na destek olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. Fed belirsizli\u011finin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkmas\u0131 ve ABD ekonomisinin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na moral vererek hemen hemen t\u00fcm piyasalar\u0131n haftay\u0131 kazan\u00e7larla kapatmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyir ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 tedirgin etmeye devam ediyor. Hafta boyunca a\u00e7\u0131klanan k\u00fcresel ekonomik veriler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyir izledi.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43179 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-3.png\" alt=\"21122015-3\" width=\"576\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-3.png 576w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-3-300x184.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><br \/>\n<strong>Yeni Haftada Ne Konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yeni haftada yurti\u00e7i ekonomik g\u00fcndemi TCMB\u2019nin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n son PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 belirleyecek. TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131nda normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci kapsam\u0131nda daha \u00f6nce taahh\u00fct etti\u011fi gibi, Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ard\u0131ndan politika faizi ve koridorun alt band\u0131nda 25\u2019er baz puan art\u0131r\u0131ma giderek ve koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek; faiz koridorunun daha simetrik hale getirilmesi ve daralt\u0131lmas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, PPK\u2019dan bir g\u00fcn sonra TCMB\u2019nin banka ekonomist ve analistleriyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan gelecek mesajlar da takip edilmeli. K\u00fcresel ekonomik takvime bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6nceki haftalara nazaran daha az yo\u011funlukta ama yine de baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli verilerin a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 bir haftan\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. ABD taraf\u0131nda Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 3. \u00c7eyrek Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme nihai tahmin ve Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 Var olan Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri, Ki\u015fisel Gelir ve Harcamalar\u0131 ve Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc de Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 haftan\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan verileri olacak. Hafta boyunca bankalar\u0131n kapal\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ABD\u2019de, Noel tatili nedeniyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar da kapal\u0131 olacak. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc de \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 3. \u00c7eyrek Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme nihai rakamlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; Asya taraf\u0131nda Japonya\u2019da Kas\u0131m ay\u0131na ait T\u00dcFE, Hanehalk\u0131 Harcamalar\u0131 ve \u0130\u015fsizlik gibi \u00f6nemli veriler a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43180 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-4.png\" alt=\"21122015-4\" width=\"435\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-4.png 435w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-4-300x150.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 435px) 100vw, 435px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Endeks, 71.800 \u00dczerinde Kal\u0131c\u0131 Olabilecek mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yandaki BIST-100 endeksine ait haftal\u0131k grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere son k\u00fcresel krizin ard\u0131ndan 2009 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan, 17 \u2013 25 Aral\u0131k s\u00fcreci ve TCMB\u2019nin \u015fok faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda test edilen uzun vadeli y\u00fckselen trendin (k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi) son d\u00f6nemde artan stresle birlikte k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Bu trendin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve endeksin 69.191 seviyesine kadar geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Endeksin gerek bu haftaki gerekse orta vadedeki seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan mavi \u00e7izgiyle g\u00f6sterilen 71.800 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunabilmesi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, 75.000 ve \u00fczerine do\u011fru bir hareketlenme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklenebilir. Ancak, 71.800 seviyesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda endeksin yeniden 70.000 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131na do\u011fru sarkmalar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2642180481\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sa\u011fdaki grafikte, BIST-100 endeksinin 1 Kas\u0131m Se\u00e7imlerinden bu yana sergiledi\u011fi performans g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak verilmi\u015ftir. 2 Kas\u0131m g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 83.654 seviyesinden bu yana k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde olan endeksin; 70.000 seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda sonras\u0131nda gelen tepkiden; endeksin 70.000 \u00fczerinde kalma konusunda diren\u00e7li ve istekli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Yu<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43182 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-5.png\" alt=\"21122015-5\" width=\"515\" height=\"339\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-5.png 515w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-5-300x197.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 515px) 100vw, 515px\" \/>kar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin devam edebilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, endeksin \u00f6ncelikle 72.800 \u2013 73.000 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini k\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu b\u00f6lgenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda takip edilecek diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 75.000 \u2013 76.600 \u2013 77.800 olarak s\u0131ralanabilir. \u00d6zetle, 70.000 \u2013 71.800 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde olundu\u011fu m\u00fcddet\u00e7e endeksteki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7abalar\u0131n devam etmesi beklenebilir. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarda Noel tatilinin etkisiyle \u00e7ok yo\u011fun bir veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulunmuyor. Bu nedenle yurti\u00e7i piyasalar\u0131n, en az\u0131ndan bu hafta i\u00e7in yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131yla olan korelasyonunun azalmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-43183 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-6.png\" alt=\"21122015-6\" width=\"604\" height=\"406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-6.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/21122015-6-300x202.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Dolar\/TL\u2019de 2.90 kritik<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Solda, dolar\/TL\u2019ye ait saatlik grafik yer almaktad\u0131r. Grafikte mavi ile g\u00f6sterilen \u00e7izgiler yatay destek &#8211; direnci, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 ile g\u00f6sterilen \u00e7izgiler ise Raff Regresyon Kanal\u0131n\u0131* g\u00f6stermektedir. Kurun 14 Aral\u0131k tarihinde test etti\u011fi 2.9970 TL seviyesinden bu yana k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Hem yatay destek diren\u00e7leri hem de trend kanal\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak; ekstra bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a, bu hafta i\u00e7inde kurun 2.90 \u2013 2.93 band\u0131nda (d\u00fcz mavi \u00e7izgiler) seyretmesi beklenebilir. Bu bant i\u00e7indeki pivot noktas\u0131 2.9150 TL olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir (kesikli mavi \u00e7izgi). \u00d6zellikle 2.9040 seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda \u00f6ncelikle 2.89\u2019lu seviyelerin test edilmesi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam etmesi durumunda 2.87\u2019li g\u00fcndeme gelmesi beklenebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, 2.9300 \u2013 2.9350 b\u00f6lgesinin yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi durumunda da 2.95\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketlenme beklenebilir. Y\u0131lsonuna kadar kalan s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde, dolar\/TL\u2019nin, s\u00fcrpriz bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a, 2.87 \u2013 2.95 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket etmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>* Raff Regresyon Kanal\u0131 ekonometrik y\u00f6ntemlerle hesaplanmakta olup; kanal\u0131n ortas\u0131ndaki \u00e7izgi belirlenen aral\u0131ktaki trendi g\u00f6sterirken (lineer regresyon); kanal\u0131n geni\u015fli\u011fi, bu trend \u00e7izgisine g\u00f6re g\u00f6r\u00fclen azami y\u00fcksek\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00e7izilmektedir. Trend ve her iki bant aras\u0131ndaki mesafe e\u015fit uzakl\u0131kta olup, kanal hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa fiyat\u0131n o y\u00f6ndeki bant ve trend aras\u0131ndaki mesafe kadar y\u00fckselmesi ya da d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2578653421\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><br \/>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<br \/>\nGedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n en kritik haftalar\u0131ndan birini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Fed, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r beklenen Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcrecine resmen ba\u015flad\u0131. Avrupa ve Japonya Merkez Bankalar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fleyici politikalar\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,1513],"class_list":["post-43176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-erol-gurcan-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43176"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43176\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}