{"id":43145,"date":"2015-12-18T10:26:13","date_gmt":"2015-12-18T08:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=43145"},"modified":"2015-12-19T09:58:38","modified_gmt":"2015-12-19T07:58:38","slug":"faizler-dolar-ve-borsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/faizler-dolar-ve-borsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Faizler, Dolar ve Borsa&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcn endeks g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapatt\u0131. Fakat ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte bir miktar sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck. <\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-529487348\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek 74.178 seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra kapan\u0131\u015f 73.475 seviyesinden oldu. D\u00fcn g\u00fcn i\u00e7i hareketler ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyal \u00fcretmese de, genelde borsa y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimindeydi.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f borsalardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle bu sabah d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131lan endeks 73 binlerin alt\u0131na \u00a0geriledi. Bu a\u015famada, Avrupa borsalar\u0131nda da genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi hakim. \u015eu an bizler i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli konu TCMB&#8217;nin 22 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0D\u00fcn Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Yi\u011fit Bulut att\u0131\u011f\u0131 twitte \u015f\u00f6yle dedi; &#8220;T\u00dcRK\u0130YE&#8217;de piyasalar\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015flemesi i\u00e7in SAYIN CUMHURBA\u015eKANIMIZIN HER ZAMAN IFADE ETT\u0130\u011e\u0130 GIBI FAIZLER\u0130N D\u00dc\u015eMESI SA\u011eLANMALIDIR&#8221; Bu c\u00fcmle elbette ki piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir c\u00fcmledir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131radan bir ki\u015fi s\u00f6ylemiyor. Piyasan\u0131n tek istedi\u011fi \u015fey, ekonominin gereklerinin yap\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. Babacan d\u00f6neminde Babacan&#8217;\u0131n neyi yap\u0131p neyi yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda piyasalar \u00e7ok rahatt\u0131lar. Fakat \u015fu an bu rahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eimdi bu c\u00fcmlemi okuyanlar &#8220;faiz lobisinin u\u015fa\u011f\u0131&#8221; diyeceklerdir. Fakat faiz lobisi as\u0131l faizleri ekonomik gereklere uymamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen indirmeye kalkanlard\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz (yani reel olarak negatif faiz) bankalar\u0131n ekme\u011fine ya\u011f s\u00fcrer ve faiz lobisi denilen bankalar\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Bankalar\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131 faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce nas\u0131l art\u0131yor? diye sorarsan\u0131z, bir manav\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. E\u011fer satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sebze ve meyve fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse (banka para satar) \u00e7ok daha fazla s\u00fcr\u00fcm yapar ama mutlak kar\u0131 (puan olarak) \u00a0de\u011fi\u015fmez. Portakal\u0131 2 liraya al\u0131p 3 liaraya satarken 1 lira kazan\u0131rken, portakal\u0131n maliyeti 1 liraya d\u00fc\u015ferse sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 da 2 Tl olur. Yine 1 lira k\u00e2r vard\u0131r (kar marj\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r). Fakat portakal 2 liraya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce t\u00fcketim miktar\u0131 100&#8217;den 120&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131karsa manav\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131 artar. \u00a0Ekonomik dinamikler izin vermezken faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek demek d\u00f6viz kuru volatilitesini art\u0131rmak demektir. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sanayici ve \u00fcretici i\u00e7in faizin 0.25 gerilemesinden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemlidir. Bu a\u015famada Merkez Bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki volatiliteyi olabildi\u011fince d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek \u015feklinde olmal\u0131d\u0131r. E\u011fer bu toplant\u0131da TCMB faiz indirirse ekonomiye \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar verir. Biz dolar\u0131 yeniden 3&#8217;e do\u011fru yol al\u0131rken g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Ama TCMB&#8217;nin faizleri indirmesini beklemiyorum. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemek bu ortamda pek mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. Asl\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmak mant\u0131kl\u0131 ama bunu beklemek mant\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bu aralar bir s\u00fcre d\u0131\u015f piyasalara uyumlu hareket edece\u011fiz. Avrupa ve Amerika&#8217;daki genel hareketler bizi de y\u00f6nlendirecektir fakat TCMB&#8217;nin toplant\u0131 sonucu g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar endeksin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek yanl\u0131\u015f olur. E\u011fer bu s\u0131rada 75 bini yukar\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131racak bir geli\u015fme olursa genelde d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki havadan kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en haftaki stres s\u0131ras\u0131nda FED beklenirken 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri %11&#8217;in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn 10.94 seviyesinde bulunuyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki 11.15 seviyesinde diren\u00e7 olu\u015fmu\u015f. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin de y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. TCMB fonlama maliyetini art\u0131rmaya devam ederek koridoru daraltacakt\u0131r. Normal \u015fartlarda gidersek, 2-3 ay sonra Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n fonlama maliyeti y\u00fczde 10&#8217;a yakla\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kuru \u015fu an 2.9330 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 2.9188 seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u015eu an 2.95 ile 2.90 aras\u0131ndaki dalgalanman\u0131n devam etmesini bekleyebiliriz. Fakat TCMB toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 2.95&#8217;i yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7erek yeniden 2.95-2.99 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na oturabilir. Yani dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in TCMB&#8217;nin s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden ve \u00f6zerk bir karar verdi\u011finden piyasan\u0131n \u015f\u00fcphesi olmamas\u0131 laz\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn endeks g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapatt\u0131. Fakat ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte bir miktar sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck. D\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek 74.178 seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra kapan\u0131\u015f 73.475 seviyesinden oldu.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-43145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43145\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}