{"id":42984,"date":"2015-12-09T12:07:36","date_gmt":"2015-12-09T10:07:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42984"},"modified":"2015-12-09T14:02:54","modified_gmt":"2015-12-09T12:02:54","slug":"kuresel-borsalardaki-stres-ve-bist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kuresel-borsalardaki-stres-ve-bist\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel Borsalardaki Stres ve BIST"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda BIST-100 endeksi her ne kadar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7aba i\u00e7ine girdiyse de, 74.200 seviyesini ge\u00e7emedi ve 73.750&#8217;deki deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla 73 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketle ba\u015flad\u0131 ama az \u00f6nce yeniden sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n geldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/em><\/strong> 73.500 seviyesinin \u00fczerini g\u00f6ren endeks 73 bine kadar geriledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3495964518\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42985\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-09-12-2015-A.png\" alt=\"BIST-100-09-12-2015-A\" width=\"576\" height=\"364\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-09-12-2015-A.png 576w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/BIST-100-09-12-2015-A-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki grafik 1 dakikal\u0131k hareketleri g\u00f6steriyor. Dikey \u00e7izginin oldu\u011fu yer, endeksin bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyesi g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcn Avrupa ve ABD borsalar\u0131nda sert geri \u00e7ekilmeler vard\u0131. Avrupa&#8217;da %1.5&#8217;a yakla\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler vard\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla BIST-100 endeksi de geriledi ama Avrupa borsalar\u0131 kadar gerilemedi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00a0oran\u0131 %1.09 seviyesindeydi. D\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131m\u0131 okumad\u0131ysan\u0131z bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131y\u0131 okumadan \u00f6nce o yaz\u0131y\u0131 okuman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririm. D\u00fcnk\u00fc yaz\u0131mda \u00fc\u00e7 riske dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015f ve borsadaki gerilemenin temel sebepleri olarak sunmu\u015ftum. Birincisi ABD&#8217;de FED&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisiydi. \u0130kincisi Jeopolitik risklerdi, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc de FED faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda TCMB&#8217;nin PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ne yapaca\u011f\u0131 konusuydu. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek \u00e7ok zor bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011finden bahsederek, dolar\u0131n k\u0131tla\u015faca\u011f\u0131ndan bahsetti ve k\u00fcresel ekonomileri zor g\u00fcnlerin bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Yani Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek de endi\u015feli. \u00d6zellikle FED faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel paran\u0131n pahal\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Bunun fiyatlara girdi\u011fini ve girmekte oldu\u011funu da vurguluyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi anlatacaklar\u0131m \u00f6nemli!<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131da. Fiyatlamalar yap\u0131l\u0131rken, ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n FED faizi beklentisi ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n jepolitik riskler oldu\u011fu konusunda net bir resim veremedim. Kaotik dinamiklerin oldu\u011fundan bahsettim ve habere ba\u011fl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde piyasalardaki hareketlerin olu\u015ftu\u011funu s\u00f6yledim. Asl\u0131nda kafamda \u00e7ok net bir resim yoktu. Fakat d\u00fcn biraz \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Kafamdaki temel soru \u015fuydu; Acaba yabanc\u0131lar \u015fu an yang\u0131n yerine d\u00f6nen Ortado\u011fu riskinden mi ka\u00e7\u0131yorlard\u0131 yoksa, FED faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi mi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fi inceleyelim. BU grafik yabanc\u0131 takas oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42987\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/TAKAS-100-09-12-2015-A.png\" alt=\"TAKAS-100-09-12-2015-A\" width=\"575\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/TAKAS-100-09-12-2015-A.png 575w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/TAKAS-100-09-12-2015-A-300x167.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 575px) 100vw, 575px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 2013 Haziran ay\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne en y\u00fcksek miktardaki ayl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Yabanc\u0131 takas\u0131 \u00e7ok belirgin bir \u015fekilde geriliyor. Dikkat ederseniz yabanc\u0131 takas\u0131 1 KAs\u0131m se\u00e7imlerinden sonra 24 Kas\u0131m&#8217;daki Ruya&#8217;n\u0131n U\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi olay\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 65.42 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 64 seviyesine inmi\u015f. Yani yabanc\u0131lar\u00a0<em><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">&#8220;ABD nas\u0131l olsa faiz art\u0131racak, borsa da se\u00e7imden sonra 5 bin puana yak\u0131n artt\u0131, bari \u015fimdi elimdekileri satay\u0131m, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ya da bir ka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce yava\u015f yava\u015f almaya ba\u015flar\u0131m&#8221; <\/span><\/em>demi\u015f.\u00a0Hatta U\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce hafif bir al\u0131m da gelmi\u015f. Ard\u0131ndan U\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme olay\u0131 olmu\u015f ve k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alanda yabanc\u0131 takas\u0131 y\u00fczde 64 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 63.17&#8217;ye kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. YAni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f miktar\u0131 y\u00fczde puan olarak 0.87 puan seviyesindedir. 1 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7im sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, y\u00fczde puan olarak 1.42 seviyesindedir. Bir bak\u0131ma bu veriler, FED faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sat\u0131p daha sonra alttan \u00e7ok iyi fiyatlardan al\u0131m iste\u011fini bariz bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6steriyor. Hatta bu Rusya olay\u0131 yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ekme\u011fine de bol ya\u011f s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f ve ball\u0131 kaymak olmu\u015f. Bir noktay\u0131 daha \u00e7ok \u00f6nemle vurgulamak gerekiyor. Y\u00fczde 64&#8217;den y\u00fczde 63.17&#8217;ye kadar d\u00fc\u015ferken (k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 b\u00f6lge) hem Rusya olay\u0131 hem de ABD&#8217;nin \u00a0faiz art\u0131rma beklentileri hakim. Bence bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn en az y\u00fczde 40&#8217;\u0131 FED&#8217;\u0130n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 stresinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel borsalarda da son iki g\u00fcnde\u00a0d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00a0FED&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131nda e\u011fer yabanc\u0131lar yeniden al\u0131ma ge\u00e7mezlerse \u015fa\u015f\u0131r\u0131r\u0131m. Tabi ki bu s\u0131rada Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131m\u0131zda bir sava\u015f\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm abart\u0131l\u0131 gelebilir ve herkes buna kat\u0131lmayabilir. E\u011fer benim gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsan\u0131z, elinizdeki hisseleri satman\u0131z\u0131 tavsiye etmem. Hala 71 bine kadar d\u00fc\u015fme ola\u0131sl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z var ama \u015fu an sat\u0131p oradan alay\u0131m deseniz, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabilir. Bence o seviyeye kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de g\u00f6ze al\u0131p FED faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131n\u0131 beklemek daha ak\u0131ll\u0131ca olacak gibi. 71 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r da 65 bine kadar d\u00fc\u015fer miyiz? \u015eu an inan\u0131n bu konuda hi\u00e7 bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm yok. 71 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa ya sava\u015f\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k ayen beyan ortadad\u0131r ya da FED k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ad\u0131mlarla de\u011fil y\u00fcksek ad\u0131mla faiz art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yani senaryo de\u011fi\u015fir. \u015eu an i\u00e7in bu genel \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimiz \u00a0dip seviyenin 71 bin civar\u0131 oldu\u011fudur ve bu seviyenin g\u00f6r\u00fclme garantisini veremem. \u015eunu tekrar vurgulayay\u0131m ki d\u00fcn k\u00fcresel borsalar bizden daha fazla veya bizim kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (Dow y\u00fczde 0.92, DAX, y\u00fczde 1.95, CAC y\u00fczde 1.56). Yani Rusya olay\u0131 nedeniyle negatif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131k ama bu negatif ayr\u0131\u015fma olay\u0131n oldu\u011fu ilk \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde oldu. \u015eu an d\u0131\u015f borsalara endeksli gidiyoruz ve o da FED faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na endeksli gidiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3174657045\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda BIST-100 endeksi her ne kadar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7aba i\u00e7ine girdiyse de, 74.200 seviyesini ge\u00e7emedi ve 73.750&#8217;deki deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla 73 bin seviyesinin alt\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-42984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42984"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42984\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}