{"id":42899,"date":"2015-12-07T13:18:42","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T11:18:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42899"},"modified":"2015-12-07T13:17:39","modified_gmt":"2015-12-07T11:17:39","slug":"haftaya-baslarken-dolar-ve-borsaya-iliskin-son-gorunum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/haftaya-baslarken-dolar-ve-borsaya-iliskin-son-gorunum\/","title":{"rendered":"Haftaya Ba\u015flarken Dolar ve Borsa&#8217;ya \u0130li\u015fkin Son G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde borsa ile ilgili olarak verdi\u011fim yorumlarda borsan\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcnden sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda dolar\/TL kurunun y\u00fckselmemesinin (Dolar endeksi 100\u2019e gitmesine ra\u011fmen) ayr\u0131ca Tahvil faizlerinin Rusya krizi sonras\u0131nda tekrar gerilemesinin olumlu oldu\u011funu belirttim.<\/strong><\/em> Piyasalara bir b\u00fct\u00fcn halinde bakmak gerekiyor.\u00a0\u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ge\u00e7en haftaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sadece T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki geli\u015fmelere odaklayamay\u0131z. B\u00fct\u00fcn borsalar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu ve Almanya, Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere borsalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede (2-3 hafta i\u00e7in) \u00e7ok iyi al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 do\u011fdu. \u00dcstelik ABD\u2019deki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi 200 bin beklenirken 211 bin gelmesine ra\u011fmen borsa dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc. ABD borsalar\u0131 ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde prim yapt\u0131. Bu durumun \u00a0haftaya olumlu ba\u015flamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordum fakat bu sabah borsa geri \u00e7ekilmeyle g\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131. Cuma ak\u015fam\u0131 ge\u00e7 saatlerde Moodys T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin notunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Bu asl\u0131nda olumlu bir geli\u015fme fakat piyasa g\u00fcne olumsuz ba\u015flad\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskleri fiyatl\u0131yor. Musul&#8217;daki T\u00fcrk askerlerine ili\u015fkin olarak Irak ile aram\u0131zda ciddi bir gerginlik var. Hafta sonu Rus sava\u015f gemisi bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7erken g\u00fcvertede bir askerin f\u00fcze ba\u015f\u0131nda ni\u015fan alm\u0131\u015f vaziyette n\u00f6bet tutmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck\u00a0tepkiyle kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Rusya-T\u00fcrkiye gerginligi bu hafta da\u00a0g\u00fcndemde bulunuyor. \u00a0Son olarak, BIST&#8217;de Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f verisi 1.36 milyar dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u00a0\u00a0ile Haziran 2013&#8217;den beri en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f rakam\u0131na i\u015faret\u00a0ediyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar artan jeopolitik riskleri fiyatl\u0131yorlar. Fakat bu fiyatlaman\u0131n bitip bitmedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek zor. \u00a0kars\u0131 T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131na temkinli bak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 koruduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<br \/>\nEndeks ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 74.265 seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Bu haftaya ba\u015flarken d\u00fcn gece yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m b\u00fcltende &#8220;endeksin tekrar 75 bin \u00fczerine kendini at\u0131p 77 bine do\u011fru hareket etmesini bekliyorum&#8221; dedim. Normalde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta en az 300-400 puan yukar\u0131da bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f bekliyordum. Fakat a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu kadar zay\u0131f olmas\u0131 \u00a0iyi bir sinyal de\u011fil.\u00a0Endeks 71-72 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar gerileyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in al\u0131m konusunda aceleci olunmamal\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1536536553\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>DOLAR\/TL<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-42901\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-A.png\" alt=\"dolar-07-12-2015-A\" width=\"549\" height=\"414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-A.png 658w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-A-300x226.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-B.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><br \/>\n<\/a>Yukar\u0131daki grafik Dolar\/TL kurunun 2014 May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan bu yana yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hareketi g\u00f6steriyor. 2.06 seviyelerinden 3.07 seviyesine kadar olan y\u00fckseli\u015fte dolar y\u00fczde 48.80 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere dolar ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 2.89 civar\u0131ndan kapatt\u0131. Dikkat edilirse grafik \u00fczerinde Fibonacci geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u00e7izgileri var. Dolar zirve seviyelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fckten sonra, ilk deste\u011fini y\u00fczde 23.6 \u00e7izgisinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 2.8250 civar\u0131nda buldu. Her ne kadar \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7in 2.75 civar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, dolar 2.82 alt\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcre kalamad\u0131 ve genelde 2.82 ile 2.95 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131.\u00a0Grafikteki iki yatay mavi \u00e7izgi dalgalanma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Bu hafta i\u00e7inde de bu aral\u0131kta dalgalanma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama \u00e7ok ters bir geli\u015fme olmazsa (Bir de Irak ile bir birimize girmezsek) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli bir dolar seyri g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Grafi\u011fe biraz daha yak\u0131ndan bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-42900\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-B.png\" alt=\"dolar-07-12-2015-B\" width=\"573\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-B.png 655w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/dolar-07-12-2015-B-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 573px) 100vw, 573px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafik 60 dakikal\u0131k hareketleri g\u00f6steriyor. Bu haftaya ba\u015flarken dolar\u0131n 2.88\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz. 2.8730 civar\u0131nda ilk destek var. Bu destek seviyesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, yani 2.8730 seviyesinin alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, 2.85 seviyesine veya daha da alt\u0131na gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fckselir.\u00a0Ters bir haber gelmesi ve dolarda stresin artmas\u0131 durumunda 2.8980 seviyesinin \u00fczerine bir hareket olursa 2.9150-2.92 civar\u0131na kadar yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz ama 2.92\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zannetmiyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde borsa ile ilgili olarak verdi\u011fim yorumlarda borsan\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcnden sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda dolar\/TL kurunun y\u00fckselmemesinin (Dolar endeksi 100\u2019e gitmesine ra\u011fmen) ayr\u0131ca Tahvil&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-42899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42899"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42899\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}