{"id":4261,"date":"2011-08-19T09:37:09","date_gmt":"2011-08-19T06:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4261"},"modified":"2011-08-19T09:37:22","modified_gmt":"2011-08-19T06:37:22","slug":"merkez-bankasinin-kuru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-bankasinin-kuru\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n Kuru"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son s\u0131ralarda T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar hareketli.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-892517623\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunun biraz da k\u00fcresel kriz ile ilgili oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Hemen b\u00fct\u00fcn Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kriz s\u00fcrecinde daha aktif hale geldiklerini, ekonomiye b\u00fcy\u00fck dozlu m\u00fcdahaleler yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zledik. Bir \u00e7o\u011funun muhafazakarl\u0131ktan uzakla\u015f\u0131p, olduk\u00e7a radikal say\u0131labilecek \u00f6nlem ve d\u00fczenlemeleri teredd\u00fct etmeden kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 izledik. .<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6yle bir\u00a0 ortamda TCMB&#8217;nin daha hareketli ve cesur bir konuma devinmi\u015f olmas\u0131nda \u015fa\u015facak bir \u015fey yok.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, bizim Merkez Bankam\u0131z\u0131n radikal olma ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u00f6nde gelen uygulamalar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da biliniyor. Ge\u00e7en Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen kulvar de\u011fi\u015ftirme operasyonu bu \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn bir i\u015faretidir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bilindi\u011fi gibi o tarihte TCMB tek odakl\u0131 enflasyon hedeflemesi politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mi\u015f, enflasyonun yan\u0131s\u0131ra d\u00f6viz kuru-d\u0131\u015f ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri-cari a\u00e7\u0131k zincirini de etkilemeyi ama\u00e7layan \u00e7ok odakl\u0131 bir politika bile\u015fimine ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>Sermaye giri\u015fi cayd\u0131r\u0131larak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen\u00a0 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesi sa\u011flanacak ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k denetim alt\u0131na al\u0131nacakt\u0131. Is\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul edilen ekonomiyi so\u011futmak, olas\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in de bankalar\u0131n mevduat munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 kullan\u0131lacakt\u0131. Bu politika ortodoks olmayan para politikas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Dedim ya, Merkez Bankas\u0131 son s\u0131ralarda \u00e7ok\u00a0 hareketli. Ortodoks olmayan politikan\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 daha net olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan TCMB tekrar y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Tam ters y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ekonominin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131.Cari a\u00e7\u0131k kayg\u0131lar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ildi. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011fu sav\u0131 geri plana itildi. Liran\u0131n fazla de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6zendiren, ekonomiye sermaye giri\u015fine davetiye \u00e7\u0131kartan yeni bir uygulamaya ge\u00e7ildi.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemde Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ve de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi daha var diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. D\u00f6viz kuruna ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6tesinde yer al\u0131yor yeni politika d\u00fczenlemelerinde. Para otoritesinin d\u00f6viz kuruna a\u00e7\u0131k ya da \u00f6rt\u00fck referansla politika d\u00fczenlemesi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u015fey de\u011fil. Ama ge\u00e7erli kur ve sermaye rejimini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u00f6ylesine kur a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 politika kurgulanmas\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m ender g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir uygulama.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-388075466\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dcstelik rejim de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden kur a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 politika izlenmesi bazen bellek kaymalar\u0131na neden oluyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fini ge\u00e7enlerde ya\u015fad\u0131k. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 yeni politikalar\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131rken d\u00f6viz kurunun d\u00fczeyi hakk\u0131nda da de\u011ferlendirme yapt\u0131. D\u00f6viz sepetinin olmas\u0131 gereken d\u00fczeyin y\u00fczde 5-10 \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu, yani Liran\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli hale geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fkan bu noktada durmad\u0131, kur bu durumu telafi edecek \u015fekilde davranmazsa m\u00fcdahale edeceklerini, bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labilecek ara\u00e7lar\u0131 oldu\u011funu da s\u00f6yleyiverdi. Uyan\u0131k bankac\u0131lar derhal hesab\u0131 yapt\u0131lar,\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n dolar\/TL kurunun 1.60-1.68 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini c\u00fcmle aleme ilan ettiler.<\/p>\n<p>San\u0131r\u0131m\u00a0 tipik bir bellek kaymas\u0131 bu. Ba\u015fkan para politikas\u0131n\u0131n &#8220;\u00fc\u00e7lem&#8221; (trilemma) s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyor olamaz. Uzun s\u00fcredir y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen politikan\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuru olu\u015fumunu piyasaya b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Bankan\u0131n faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 belirleme ve ekonomiye dayatma i\u015flevini \u00fcstlendi\u011fi de malumudur san\u0131r\u0131m. Siyasi iktidar\u0131n sermaye hareketlerini d\u00fczenleyen rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirme niyetinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da en iyi Ba\u015fkan bilir. Bu ko\u015fullarda Bankan\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurunu etkilemek, bir anlamda belirlemek istedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemenin ya da ima etmenin ciddi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 da bilinir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin bu s\u00f6ylem serbest kur rejiminden vazge\u00e7ildi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Ya da, Ba\u015fkan\u0131n kur s\u00f6ylemi Bankan\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z para politikas\u0131 uygulamas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ti\u011fi, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurunu belirleme amac\u0131yla kullanmak istedi\u011fi \u015feklinde alg\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bence en \u00f6nemlisi Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur tercihini ilan etmesi herhangi bir atak halinde savunmak zorunda olaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz kuru oldu\u011funun ilan\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Spek\u00fclatif atak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n kol gezdi\u011fi, sald\u0131racak para arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz ortam\u0131nda b\u00f6ylesine \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde kur savunmas\u0131na soyunmak belaya ka\u015f\u0131nmak anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-157720586\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>En b\u00fcy\u00fck bela da savundu\u011fun kuru tutturamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n gibi faiz oran\u0131na da hakim olamamakt\u0131r. Krizin dik alas\u0131 demektir bu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son s\u0131ralarda T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar hareketli. Bunun biraz da k\u00fcresel kriz ile ilgili oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Hemen b\u00fct\u00fcn Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kriz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4261"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4261\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}