{"id":42567,"date":"2015-11-19T11:42:20","date_gmt":"2015-11-19T09:42:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42567"},"modified":"2015-11-19T11:47:14","modified_gmt":"2015-11-19T09:47:14","slug":"fed-tutanaklari-sonrasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-tutanaklari-sonrasi\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Tutanaklar\u0131 Sonras\u0131&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn ikinci seansta endeks 81.000 civar\u0131ndaki deste\u011fini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarak, 80.514 seviyesinden kapand\u0131. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3952757130\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>81 bin civar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda twitter&#8217;dan bir mesaj g\u00f6ndererek endeksin bir miktar sert gerileme yapabilece\u011fini, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla k\u00e2rda olunan senetlerde sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131larak alttan al\u0131m denenebilece\u011fini belirttim. D\u00fcn ak\u015fam FED toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalarda olu\u015fan stres de bu deste\u011fin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesine neden olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam saat 21:00&#8217;de tutanaklar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu tutanaklara ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli olan noktalar \u015f\u00f6yle;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tutanaklarda &#8220;Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda benchmark faizi art\u0131rmak \u00a0uygun olabilir&#8221; c\u00fcmlesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131, fakat bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131rken as\u0131l vurgu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki c\u00fcmledeydi.<\/li>\n<li>Tutanaklar dikkatli incelendi\u011finde Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in istihdam ve enflasyon&#8217;da hedef de\u011ferlere yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve di\u011fer finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. E\u011fer Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bu \u015fartlar sa\u011flanmazsa bir sonraki toplant\u0131da yine ayn\u0131 verilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere \u00a0bak\u0131larak faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n verilebilece\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ABD&#8217;deki istihdam ve enflasyon seviyelerine g\u00f6re belirlenecek ve finansal ko\u015fullar da yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u015fu an FED \u00fcyeleri de Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ne karar al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kesin olarak bilemiyorlar ve daha \u00e7ok Aral\u0131k&#8217;tan sonraki toplant\u0131 i\u015faret ediliyor ama orada da yine istihdam ve enflasyon verileri ile finansla ko\u015fullara bak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tutanaklar\u0131n nas\u0131l yorumland\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise,uzmanlar \u00fc\u00e7e ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumdalar;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Birinci gruptakiler, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomik \u015fartlar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ve zaten bu \u015fartlar\u0131n da olu\u015ftu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar<\/li>\n<li>\u0130kinci gruptakiler bu \u015fartlar\u0131n tam olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama olu\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7ok yak\u0131n olundu\u011funu ve \u00a0Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda pekala bu \u015fartlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar<\/li>\n<li>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc\u00a0\u00a0gruptakiler ise Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131ya kadar, tutanaklarda belirtilen ekonomik \u015fartlar\u0131n olu\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Peki piyasalar hangi grupta yer al\u0131yor? G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki; piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar, tutanaklarda belirtilen ekonomik \u015fartlar\u0131n yerine gelmeyece\u011fini (en az\u0131ndan enflasyon hedefinden hala uzak olunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olmal\u0131 ki; ABD borsa endekslerinden dow %1.42, S&amp;P500 %1.62 art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bu sabah Avrupa borsalar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 1 veya \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenirken, genelde Asya borsalar\u0131 da olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyorlar. \u00d6te \u00a0yandan Dolar endeksinin de (DXY) 99.80 seviyelerinden 99.20 seviyelerine kadar gerilemesi, dolar\/TL&#8217;nin 2.85 seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131, EUro-dolar paritesinin de 1.0625 seviyelerinden 1.0750 civar\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerine dair sinyal olabilir. Yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m gruplardan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc gruba girenlerin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve \u00a0piyasalar\u0131n bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe daha yak\u0131n hareket etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00a0\u015eu an hala Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bloomberg anketlerine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 66 oldu\u011funu belirtelim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BORSA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tutanaklar sonras\u0131nda, bug\u00fcn bizim borsam\u0131z da d\u0131\u015f piyasalara uygun bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yaparak yeniden 81.000-81.250 civar\u0131na gelebilir. Tutanaklar nedeniyle, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta, genel olarak d\u00fcnk\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndan satma niyetinde olunmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle endekse yak\u0131n hareket eden ka\u011f\u0131tlar, yukar\u0131dan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapacaklard\u0131r. Endeks d\u00fcnk\u00fc kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re 700-900 puan y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131ktan sonra bir miktar kar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelebilir ve yeniden 81.000 seviyesini destek yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. \u0130lk yar\u0131m saatte g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirve seviye seans i\u00e7inde a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa, g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 1.5 \u00fczerinde primle kapatabiliriz. Fakat burada \u015fu noktaya dikkat etmek gerekiyor;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2919871269\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>Bizim borsam\u0131z da d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmelerden ve tutanaklardan olumlu etkilenecektir ama, \u015fu an i\u00e7 siyasi denklem daha \u00f6nemli. \u00d6zellikle de ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6nemini son yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda s\u0131k\u00e7a vurgulad\u0131m. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131ndaki hareketlerden sonra kendi i\u00e7 dinamiklerimize d\u00f6nme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z fazlad\u0131r. \u00a0Bu y\u00fczden ilk a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f seviyelerine g\u00f6re hareket etmek yerine, beklemede kalmak ve ilk yar\u0131m saatte g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirve yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilirse al\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek ve al\u0131m\u0131 yaparken de endekse duyarl\u0131 olan hisselerde al\u0131m yapmak daha \u00f6nemlidir.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00fcn twitter&#8217;dan 81.000 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken genelde kar realize edip daha sonra alttan al\u0131nabilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftim ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 600-700 puan gerileme olmu\u015f ve k\u0131smi al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Tutanaklar\u0131n bu derece olumlu sinyal vermesini de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a beklemiyordum. Sat\u0131\u015f yapanlar olmu\u015fsa, a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta al\u0131m yapmak yerine endeksin geri \u00e7ekilmesini bekleyip uygun fiyatlardan yeniden al\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirler, fakat tutanaklar\u0131n etkisi ilk anda fiyatlara yans\u0131yacakt\u0131r ve ondan sonraki k\u0131sa vadedeki (g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki ve yar\u0131nki) y\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc d\u0131\u015f borsalardaki genel e\u011filim belirleyecektir. Ama ekonomi y\u00f6netimi belli oldu\u011funda yine sert hareketler g\u00f6rebilece\u011fiz. Babacan&#8217;\u0131n ekonomi y\u00f6netiminde g\u00f6rev almamas\u0131 durumunda ki; D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131, hatta i\u00e7i\u015fleri bakan\u0131 olabilece\u011fine dair dedikodular dola\u015f\u0131yor, borsada yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler olabilece\u011fini unutmayal\u0131m.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>K\u0131saca \u015funu s\u00f6ylemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. E\u011fer \u015fu ana kadar ekonomi y\u00f6netimimiz a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131 ve tutanaklar bu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olup, d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda bu olumlu etkiyi yapm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131, bu sabah sizlere al\u0131m yap\u0131p en az birka\u00e7 hafta bekleyin derdim. Fakat, bu a\u015famada art\u0131k i\u00e7 siyasi dinamiklere d\u00f6nece\u011fiz. Yabanc\u0131 takas\u0131n\u0131n son durumu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte veriliyor ve 2 Kas\u0131m&#8217;dan\u00a0bu yana yabanc\u0131 takas oran\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Yani,\u00a0\u00a01 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda azalmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve bu durum ho\u015f de\u011fil. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n Babacan konusunda eklentilerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/yabtakas-19-11-2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42568\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/yabtakas-19-11-2015.png\" alt=\"yabtakas-19-11-2015\" width=\"414\" height=\"303\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/yabtakas-19-11-2015.png 414w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/yabtakas-19-11-2015-300x220.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 414px) 100vw, 414px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, bug\u00fcn endeks y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Sonras\u0131nda ise yatay hareket beklenmeli. E\u011fer endeks 81.000 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcne ba\u015flar ve daha sonra tekrar 81 binin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ferse hi\u00e7 iyi sinyal olmaz. Seans i\u00e7inden saat 11:00&#8217;de yeni yorum ge\u00e7ece\u011fim. Bazen gerekirse twit g\u00f6nderebilirim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOLAR<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-19-11-2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42569\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-19-11-2015.png\" alt=\"dolar-19-11-2015\" width=\"516\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-19-11-2015.png 516w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-19-11-2015-300x212.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 516px) 100vw, 516px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kuru d\u00fcn tutanaklar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra bir ara 2.8730 seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ama daha sonra 2.85 seviyelerine kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu sabah 2.8580 civar\u0131nda hareket ediyor. Dolar\u0131n 2.86 seviyesinin alt\u0131na yeniden gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131, daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen 2.82-2.85 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u00a0gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Fakat \u015fu an izlemek laz\u0131m. Yeniden 2.8650&#8217;nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015f olmas\u0131 durumunda 2.85 seviyesi \u00f6nemli bir destek konumuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecektir. Tersine yeniden 2.85&#8217;in alt\u0131na gelmesi durumunda 1 hafta veya 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde yeniden 2.82&#8217;ler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u015eu an i\u00e7in dolarda bir s\u00fcre y\u00f6ns\u00fcz bir seyir izleyebiliriz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3500021624\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOT<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bu ak\u015fam saat 21:00&#8217;de Osmanl\u0131 Menkul sponsorlu\u011funda yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z canl\u0131 yay\u0131n linki<\/strong>:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ocU9SvGuYLo\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ocU9SvGuYLo\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0(Bu gece bankalar\u0131 analiz ediyoruz)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ikinci seansta endeks 81.000 civar\u0131ndaki deste\u011fini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarak, 80.514 seviyesinden kapand\u0131. 81 bin civar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ilmesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda twitter&#8217;dan bir mesaj g\u00f6ndererek endeksin bir miktar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-42567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42567\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}