{"id":42389,"date":"2015-11-09T08:13:01","date_gmt":"2015-11-09T06:13:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42389"},"modified":"2015-11-09T22:24:10","modified_gmt":"2015-11-09T20:24:10","slug":"tdi-verisi-sonrasi-yeni-haftaya-baslarken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tdi-verisi-sonrasi-yeni-haftaya-baslarken\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\u0130 Verisi Sonras\u0131 Yeni Haftaya Ba\u015flarken"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n \u015f\u00fcphesiz en \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel g\u00fcndem maddesi ABD\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (TD\u0130) verileriydi. 185-190 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 beklenen TD\u0130 271 bin olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan 142 bin d\u00fczeyindeki veri ise 137 bine revize edildi. Ge\u00e7en ayki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 % 5.1 iken son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriye g\u00f6re bu oran %5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3517902969\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7ok \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015fka geli\u015fme daha oldu. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 174 bin beklenirken 268 bin oldu ve ge\u00e7en ayki \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 118 binden 149 bine revize edildi.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42390\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-01.png\" alt=\"9-kasim-01\" width=\"345\" height=\"210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-01.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-01-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafikteki gri barlar ayl\u0131k bazda TD\u0130 verisini g\u00f6sterirken (sol eksen), bordo \u00e7izgi ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda TD\u0130\u2019deki % de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steriyor. \u00a0Bu arada vurgulamal\u0131y\u0131z ki,\u00a0 saatlik kazan\u00e7lar y\u00fczde 0.4 artm\u0131\u015f. Bu veri de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n<p>Bu veriler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra dolar endeksi yeniden 100\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken, Euro dolar paritesi 1.08\u2019in alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130zleyen grafiklerde Dolar endeksi (DXY) ve Euro-dolar paritesinin hareketlerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42391\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-02.png\" alt=\"9-kasim-02\" width=\"345\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-02.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-02-300x223.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42392\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-03.png\" alt=\"9-kasim-03\" width=\"345\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-03.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-03-300x223.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu veriler sonras\u0131nda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok artt\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden de dolar di\u011fer paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 zamanda TL\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 da de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve dolar\/TL kuru 2.9250 seviyelerine kadar y\u00fckseldi. Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda, yani TD\u0130 verisinde beklentiler d\u00fczeyinde veya beklentilerden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131, dolar\/TL kuru yeniden 2.82 seviyelerine kadar inebilirdi. Bu konuya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da\u00a0\u00a0de\u011finece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>TD\u0130 verisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki verileri burada tekrar etmenin anlam\u0131 yok, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc di\u011fer verilerin tamam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgede ve hatta karanl\u0131kta b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayacakt\u0131r. Bu fiyatlaman\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc zaten Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc oldu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu haftaki veriler de TD\u0130 verisinin \u00fczerine daha dikkatli takip edilecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BORSA<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2014151220\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42393\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-04.png\" alt=\"9-kasim-04\" width=\"345\" height=\"292\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-04.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-04-300x254.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Borsada se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan endeks \u00f6nce kar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve sonras\u0131nda ise TD\u0130 verisiyle birlikte Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci seansta sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaparak 81.930 seviyesinden kapand\u0131. 81.500 \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 \u00f6nemliydi. TD\u0130 verilerine ra\u011fmen Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Dow ve Nasdaq endeksleri g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fle tamamlarken S&amp;P500 endeksi de c\u0131l\u0131z bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131. Bu sabah Asya cephesinde \u00e7ok olumlu bir hava var. Dolar endeksi geriliyor.\u00a0 Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla borsada genel olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f bekleyebiliriz. Endeksin yeniden 82.500 seviyesini zorlay\u0131p, 83 bine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f yapmak isteyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu y\u00fczden borsada genel olarak sat\u0131\u015f \u00f6nermiyorum. \u0130zlemede kalmak laz\u0131m. Endeksin 84 bin seviyesini a\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin belirlenmesi gerekiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kabine belli olana kadar 84 bin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 olmaya devam edecektir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da da 81.250-81.500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek g\u00f6revi g\u00f6recektir. Borsa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7ok panik olmamal\u0131lar. TD\u0130 verisi sonras\u0131nda, verinin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, endeksin \u00e7ok da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir performans g\u00f6stermedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f temkinli olabilir ama sonras\u0131nda al\u0131\u015flar yava\u015f yava\u015f artabilir. Bu arada Twitter\u2019da dola\u015fan ve kabineye ili\u015fkin asparagas haberler var. Bunlara itibar etmemek laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dolar\/TL<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42394\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-05.png\" alt=\"9-kasim-05\" width=\"345\" height=\"249\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-05.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-05-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda dolar\/TL kuru 2.76 seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 2.85-2.87 seviyelerine kadar y\u00fckseldi ve ge\u00e7en hafta ABD\u2019den gelen TD\u0130 verisiyle birlikte 2.8750\u2019deki direncini yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7erek 2.9270 seviyelerine kadar y\u00fckseldi. 9 Kas\u0131m pazartesi sabah\u0131 itibariyle dolar\/TL kuru 2.92 seviyelerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f tamam\u0131yla beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde gelen TD\u0130 verisiyle a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Piyasa bu haberi ald\u0131ktan sonra Dolar endeksi de 100\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131nca neredeyse t\u00fcm para birimleri dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti. Art\u0131k piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyorlar. Bu veri sonras\u0131nda, FED\u2019in 10-15 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k piyasalar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemez.\u00a0 Fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7ine tam olarak girdi mi? derseniz, \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n girdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-965386242\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kurunda bu hafta i\u00e7inde 2.87 ile 2.94 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanma olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum ve en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direnci 2.95 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilerde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, dolar di\u011fer paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanabilir ama \u015fimdilik ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n sert y\u00fckseli\u015fini biraz sindirmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z daha \u00f6nceki yorumlar\u0131mda 2.87 civar\u0131ndaki dirence i\u015faret ederek ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir haber gelmedik\u00e7e dolar\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. Fakat TD\u0130 verisi ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fcyd\u00fc ve yeni denge band\u0131m\u0131z 2.87-2.95 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Dolar\u0131n bundan sonraki y\u00f6n\u00fc tamam\u0131yla ABD\u2019den gelecek haberlere ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunam\u0131yorum. Fakat 2.95 \u00fczerine olacak hareketlerde sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. 2.88 veya daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyeye gerileme olmas\u0131 durumunda da al\u0131\u015flar gelebilir. Bu arada i\u00e7 dinamiklerimiz de \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Kabine ve ekonomi y\u00f6netimi belirlendi\u011finde de sert hareketler g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Babacan\u2019a kabinede g\u00f6rev verilmesi ama Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kendine ba\u011flanmamas\u0131 durumunda dolarda yeni y\u00fckseli\u015fler g\u00f6rebiliriz. Fakat eski ekonomi y\u00f6netimi yeniden g\u00f6revde olursa, dolardaki genel trendin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ALTIN<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42395\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-06.png\" alt=\"9-kasim-06\" width=\"345\" height=\"249\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-06.png 345w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/9-kasim-06-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>TD\u0130 verisi sonras\u0131nda Alt\u0131nda da sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Faizlerin art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi alt\u0131n\u0131 da vurdu. Y\u00fckselen trendin,\u00a0 1.125 dolar seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te yeni direncinin 1.120-1.130 dolar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0 Alt\u0131n 1.110 dolar seviyelerine do\u011fru bir tepki yapabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc TD\u0130 verisi fiyatlara \u00e7ok belirgin bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131d\u0131. Fakat bu a\u015famada yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir trend olu\u015fturmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Zannedersem faizler FED taraf\u0131ndan art\u0131r\u0131lana kadar, alt\u0131n 1.075 dolar destek yaparak 1.075-1.125 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanacakt\u0131r. 1.075\u2019in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda 950-1000 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar gerileme riski bulunuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir hafta olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n \u015f\u00fcphesiz en \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel g\u00fcndem maddesi ABD\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (TD\u0130) verileriydi. 185-190 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olmas\u0131 beklenen TD\u0130 271 bin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-42389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42389\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}