{"id":42342,"date":"2015-11-05T08:46:28","date_gmt":"2015-11-05T05:46:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42342"},"modified":"2015-11-06T08:14:28","modified_gmt":"2015-11-06T05:14:28","slug":"fed-sinyalleri-ve-piyasalarimiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fed-sinyalleri-ve-piyasalarimiz\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Sinyalleri ve Piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re\u00a0\u00a0ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam Ekim ay\u0131nda beklentilere \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir y\u00fckseli\u015f\u00a0g\u00f6sterdi. <\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-609534386\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 Ekim ay\u0131nda 182.000 artarken, beklentiler 180 bindi.\u00a0Veri ABD istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde iyile\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 verisi ise 200.000&#8217;den 190.000&#8217;e revize edildi.\u00a0Yar\u0131n\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Ekim ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin 182.000 olmas\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %5&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan di\u011fer bir veri de\u00a0d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere dolar de\u011fer kazand\u0131k\u00e7a ABD ihracat\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyordu ama d\u00fcnk\u00fc verilerle d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. ABD Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n verilerine g\u00f6re A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 48 milyar dolar seviyesinde olan ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda %15 gerileyerek 40.8 milyar dolara indi. Beklentiler\u00a041 milyar dolard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta FED \u00fcyelerinin ve FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen&#8217;in konu\u015fmalar\u0131 vard\u0131. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Janeet Yellen ve New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 William Dudley&#8217;in her ikisi de, ABD merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek ayki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidebilece\u011fini kaydederken, Fed Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Stanley Fischer, enflasyonun merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fcvenini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Yellen, &#8220;Bu noktada, ABD ekonomisinin iyi bir performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum,&#8221; dedi ve &#8220;E\u011fer ekonomik veriler b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 i\u015faret ederse, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 &#8216;canl\u0131 bir olas\u0131l\u0131k&#8217; olacak&#8221; \u015feklinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirdi.\u00a0New York&#8217;taki konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, Dudley, Ba\u015fkan&#8217;a kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi, ancak, &#8220;bakal\u0131m verler ne s\u00f6yleyecek&#8221; dedi. Fischer d\u00fcn Washington&#8217;da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yorum yapmad\u0131, fakat fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Fed&#8217;in hedefine do\u011fru hareket edece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC), Ekim ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ve i\u015fletme yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki &#8220;g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc&#8221; oranlar\u0131 i\u015faret ederek, &#8220;gelecek toplant\u0131da&#8221; faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fini kaydetti. Komite&#8217;nin en etkili \u00fcyeleri olarak bilinen Yellen, Dudley ve Fischer&#8217;den gelen yorumlar, e\u011fer ekonomideki iyile\u015fme s\u00fcrerse, gelecek ayki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nabilece\u011fini i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BORSALAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 sert art\u0131\u015f yapan borsa, ikinci g\u00fcn geriledi ve d\u00fcn y\u00fckseldi. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da seans i\u00e7i grafik veriliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1128960834\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42343\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/bist-5-kasim2015.png\" alt=\"bist-5 kasim2015\" width=\"556\" height=\"351\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/bist-5-kasim2015.png 556w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/bist-5-kasim2015-300x189.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 556px) 100vw, 556px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere endeks d\u00fcn 83.750&#8217;ye yak\u0131n bir seviyeden kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bziim piyasalar bu hareketi yaparken, d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda ne t\u00fcr hareketler vard\u0131? Bunlar\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde veriyorum. S\u0131ras\u0131yla DOW, S&amp;P500 ve DAX endekslerinin grafikleridir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42346\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dow-5-kasim2015.png\" alt=\"Dow-5 kasim2015\" width=\"335\" height=\"246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dow-5-kasim2015.png 335w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dow-5-kasim2015-300x220.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Dow-5-kasim2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42347\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/SPX-5-kasim2015.png\" alt=\"SPX-5 kasim2015\" width=\"335\" height=\"246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/SPX-5-kasim2015.png 335w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/SPX-5-kasim2015-300x220.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/SPX-5-kasim2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">\u00a0<\/a><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42348\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/DAX-5-kasim2015.png\" alt=\"DAX-5 kasim2015\" width=\"335\" height=\"246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/DAX-5-kasim2015.png 335w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/DAX-5-kasim2015-300x220.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 335px) 100vw, 335px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn ABD ve Avrupa borsalar\u0131ndaki genel gerilemenin temel sebebi ABD&#8217;den gelen verilerin en az\u0131ndan beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 ve Yellen ile di\u011fer FED \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yd\u0131. Bu sabah Asya cephesinde \u00e7ok olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var. Bizim borsan\u0131n yatay a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. D\u00fcn de yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere BIST-100 endeksi i\u00e7in en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek 81.600 seviyesinde bulunuyor ve bu seviyeye kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f normal dalgalanma band\u0131 i\u00e7inde olacakt\u0131r. \u015eu an piyasa bir bekleyi\u015f i\u00e7inde ve en temel sebebi de yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (TD\u0130) verisidir. Beklentilere yak\u0131n veya beklentilerden y\u00fcksek bir TD\u0130 verisi endeksi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u015fu an piyasalar bu haberi bekliyor ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla en az\u0131ndan \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede borsada stres g\u00f6rebiliriz. Tabi ki piyasam\u0131z bu arada ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin kim olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da bekliyor. Bu belli olana kadar piyasa 81.500-84.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bekleme modunda kalabilir. \u00c7ok fazla al-sat yapmadan izlemede kalmak \u015fu anki g\u00fcnlerde daha iyi olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir haber sert hareketlere sebep olabiliyor. Borsada bollinger bantlar\u0131 darald\u0131ktan sonra yeni hareketler g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOLAR\/TL<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc yorumumda dolar i\u00e7in diren\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 2.84-2.86 olarak vermi\u015ftim. Yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fim ABD verileri ve Yellen ile FED \u00fcyelerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ile birlikte Dolar endeksinin (DXY) 96.5-97.0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan 98&#8217;e y\u00fckselmesi Dolar\/TL kurunu da yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Yani \u015fu an d\u0131\u015f piyasalara uyumlu bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 izliyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere dolar\/TL kuru Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme seviyelerine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 68.1&#8217;e yakla\u015ft\u0131. E\u011fer TD\u0130 verisi beklentilerden daha iyi gelirse dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015f olur ama piyasa bunu sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak kullanabilir. Buna dikkat etmek gerekiyor. TD\u0130 verisinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 yeniden dolar\u0131 2.82 civar\u0131na do\u011fru \u00e7ekme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahiptir. \u015eu an k\u0131sa vadeli her iki y\u00f6nde de al-sat riskli olabilir. Fakat gelecek hafta i\u00e7inde dolarda yeniden geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc meclisin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p yeni ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin belirlenecek olmas\u0131 olumlu beklentiler yaratabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3800176472\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-5-kasim2015.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-42355\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-5-kasim2015.png\" alt=\"dolar-5 kasim2015\" width=\"340\" height=\"238\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-5-kasim2015.png 340w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/dolar-5-kasim2015-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 340px) 100vw, 340px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir\u00a0g\u00fcn olmas\u0131 dile\u011fiyle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re\u00a0\u00a0ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam Ekim ay\u0131nda beklentilere \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir y\u00fckseli\u015f\u00a0g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 Ekim ay\u0131nda 182.000 artarken, beklentiler 180 bindi.\u00a0Veri ABD&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-42342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42342\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}