{"id":42112,"date":"2015-10-22T00:40:27","date_gmt":"2015-10-21T21:40:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42112"},"modified":"2015-10-22T08:44:04","modified_gmt":"2015-10-22T05:44:04","slug":"merkezin-statik-dengesi-kaymis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkezin-statik-dengesi-kaymis\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Merkez\u2019in statik dengesi kaym\u0131\u015f  \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Binalar\u0131n ayakta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan en \u00f6nemli unsurdur statik denge&#8230; \u00c7o\u011fu zaman balkon \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 ve benzeri yanl\u0131\u015flarla merkez noktan\u0131n kaymas\u0131 ve statik hesab\u0131n bozulmas\u0131, olas\u0131 bir felakette denge noktas\u0131n\u0131n kaymas\u0131na ve y\u0131k\u0131ma varan sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmas\u0131na neden olur.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1529821447\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Anla\u015f\u0131lan o ki, ekonomiyi alg\u0131lama bi\u00e7imi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da statik denge noktas\u0131 kaym\u0131\u015f. Art\u0131k Ankara\u2019dan binaya kim \u00e7\u0131kma yap\u0131yorsa? Son ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen MB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan faizde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Normal mi? Evet&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z zaman hayretler i\u00e7inde kal\u0131yorsunuz. Mesela kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n mak\u00fbl oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Y\u0131llarca insanlar\u0131 kredilerle ya\u015fatmaya al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir sistemde, \u015fimdi kredilerin daralt\u0131lmas\u0131yla, i\u00e7 piyasan\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Esasen prensip olarak kredilerin verilme y\u00f6ntemine en ba\u015ftan beri kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan isimlerden biriyim. Kredi daralmas\u0131 da do\u011fru, y\u00f6ntem ve zamanlama hatal\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Proje odakl\u0131 kredilerin yan\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ilmedi\u011fi \u00fclkemde, t\u00fcketici kredileri de Merkez\u2019in g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc noktada de\u011fil. Daha ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn \u2018Bankac\u0131lar Zirvesi\u2019nde mevduat\u0131n da kredinin de hacminin \u00e7ok yetersiz oldu\u011fu dile getirildi. Bence burada hem bankac\u0131lar, hem de Merkez a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan konuyu rakam ve oranlardan ziyade, kredilerin i\u00e7eri\u011fini tart\u0131\u015fmak gerekir. Ama yine de \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyir vurgusunda hemfikirim; sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olmakla birlikte&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bundan sonra d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve ihracat ile ilgili vurgular\u0131 var ki, zannedersiniz Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fka bir d\u00fcnyada ya\u015f\u0131yor. Vurgu \u015fu: \u201c\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerinin talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da katk\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonunun kademeli olarak net ihracat lehine de\u011fi\u015fmesi beklenmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Alternatif pazarlarda durum a\u00e7maza girince, Avrupa pazar\u0131na dayanan ve nispi olarak ihracat i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131n da artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu alanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 nas\u0131l bir geli\u015fme bekliyor? Avrupa pazar\u0131 ciddi bir daralmayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya\u2026 \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te hem mal sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, hem de oradan gelecek turist oran\u0131nda dramatik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer g\u00fcvendi\u011fi Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeye devam etmesi ise, yine foto\u011fraf\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f okuyor demektir. Birincisi s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi kadar hacim yarat\u0131lm\u0131yor, ikincisi s\u00fcr\u00fclen bu paralar AB vatanda\u015f\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131yor, merkez bankalar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla finans noktalar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir parasal geli\u015fme avronun de\u011ferini daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011finden, mal satan\u0131n zaten satt\u0131\u011f\u0131na pi\u015fman oldu\u011fu bir foto\u011fraf ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Avro \/ dolar paritesinin dolar lehine geli\u015fmesi \u00fcreticimiz ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131m\u0131z ad\u0131na tam bir felaket olu\u015fturuyor. Giderleri \u015fi\u015ferken, gelirleri de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. \u00dcstelik pazar s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan al\u0131c\u0131, zaten \u00e7ok az k\u00e2rlarla pazarda ya\u015famaya devam etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ihracat\u00e7\u0131yla tekrar pazarl\u0131k masas\u0131na oturup, fiyat k\u0131rmaya y\u00f6neliyor. Bu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde ne tip bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor, bunu a\u00e7\u0131klas\u0131n.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4124644661\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yine Kurul, yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde olumlu katk\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunuyor. Ger\u00e7ek bir yap\u0131sal reform yapmaya kimsenin niyetinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun bir se\u00e7im propagandas\u0131 oldu\u011funu, d\u00fcnyada \u00fclkeler parite sava\u015f\u0131na girmesin diye oyalama laf\u0131 olarak e\u015f zamanl\u0131 ortaya at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00f6remiyor mu? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi b\u0131rakt\u0131m; d\u00fcnyay\u0131 da m\u0131 takip etmiyorlar?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yine bir ba\u015fka vurgu d\u00f6viz kurundaki hareketlerin enflasyondaki iyile\u015fmeyi geciktirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00fczerine&#8230; \u00d6ncelikle sizin rakam olarak belirledi\u011finiz enflasyonun, hayat\u0131n ger\u00e7ekleriyle uyu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u0131pk\u0131 kur tahminleriniz gibi. 1,92\u2019yi hat\u0131rlat\u0131r\u0131m\u2026 \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te TL\u2019nin daha \u00e7ok de\u011fer kaybedece\u011fini bile bile neyin beklentisinin i\u00e7ine giriyorsunuz? Enflasyonun y\u00fckselece\u011fi ortama zemin mi haz\u0131rl\u0131yorsunuz?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ve t\u00fcm bunlar olurken s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekten bahseden bir Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Madem s\u0131k\u0131 duruyorsunuz, yeni havaliman\u0131 i\u00e7in kamu bankalar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik salma verginin, yani g\u00f6rev zarar\u0131n\u0131n bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n neresinde oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-751182914\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapacak bir \u015feyi de kalmam\u0131\u015f, tutar bir taraf\u0131 da&#8230; Dedim ya statik noktas\u0131 kaym\u0131\u015f ve dengesini bulam\u0131yor. Merak ediyorum, bu durumunun fark\u0131nda m\u0131 ve buna y\u00f6nelik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor mu? Fark\u0131nda de\u011filse fena, fark\u0131ndaysa ve bir \u015fey yapm\u0131yorsa daha da fena.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Binalar\u0131n ayakta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan en \u00f6nemli unsurdur statik denge&#8230; \u00c7o\u011fu zaman balkon \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 ve benzeri yanl\u0131\u015flarla merkez noktan\u0131n kaymas\u0131 ve statik hesab\u0131n bozulmas\u0131, olas\u0131 bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-42112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42112\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}