{"id":42081,"date":"2015-10-20T22:56:25","date_gmt":"2015-10-20T19:56:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=42081"},"modified":"2015-10-21T08:39:38","modified_gmt":"2015-10-21T05:39:38","slug":"turkiye-para-bulamiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turkiye-para-bulamiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; T\u00fcrkiye para bulam\u0131yor  \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de cari a\u00e7\u0131k azald\u0131 masal\u0131n\u0131n bir ikiz karde\u015fi de yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Ama tebrik etmek laz\u0131m, medya yine bunu analiz etmeden ayn\u0131 k\u0131vamda vermeye devam ediyo<\/strong><\/em>r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3244214133\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>2015 A\u011fustos ay\u0131 itibariyle net uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 371,2 milyar dolara geriledi. Haber nas\u0131l veriliyor? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 artt\u0131. 2014 y\u0131lsonuna mukayese etti\u011finde yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klar, yani kaba tarifle bizim param\u0131z 235,4 milyar dolar oldu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bundan daha \u00f6nemlisi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin, yani kaba tarifle borcumuzun y\u00fczde 9,6 azal\u0131\u015fla 606,6 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131. \u015eimdi biz \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat yapsak ve daha az kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, d\u00f6viz geliri etsek bu tablo \u00e7ok g\u00fczel.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama i\u015fin i\u00e7ine \u2018nas\u0131l\u2019 sorusu girdi\u011finde, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki gerilemeyle paralel bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor? D\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmimiz geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in. Ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7indeki yo\u011funlu\u011fu, \u00fcretmezsen mal da almazs\u0131n ilkesinin sonucu olarak geriliyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u00dcstelik son d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda 38 milyar dolarlara gerilemesi muhtemel cari a\u00e7\u0131k halen 43 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde ki bu performans\u0131n aksine y\u00fcksek. \u00d6yleyse d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile cari a\u00e7\u0131k nas\u0131l ikiz karde\u015f oluyor?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f ticaret geriliyor ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k mukayeseli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine giriyor. Maliyet ise artan d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131 nedeniyle azalmak yerine art\u0131yor. Yani yar\u0131n i\u015fler d\u00fczelse, sorunu ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7\u00f6zmedi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131k yine \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayacak.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ama cari a\u00e7\u0131k kalemi i\u00e7inde gerileyen bir oran daha var. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen finansman miktar\u0131&#8230; Bundaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de burada bariz kendisini hissettiriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithal kalemini ara mal\u0131 ve para olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da durum benzerlik g\u00f6steriyor. Borcumuzu \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz ya da daha \u00f6nce de belirtti\u011fim gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gelir etmemiz sonucu azalan bir pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok. T\u00fcrkiye para bulam\u0131yor. Zaten yeni havaliman\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n devreye sokulmas\u0131 da bundan\u2026 Asl\u0131nda bunun T\u00fcrk\u00e7e terc\u00fcmesi eski bir dostu adreslendiriyor: G\u00f6rev zarar\u0131&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1042945954\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Peki, bu ikiz karde\u015flerin tek ortak yan\u0131 bu mu? A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n maliyetine de bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ruh ikizi gibiler. 60 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131kta kur 2,14 iken maliyeti 128 milyar 400 milyon TL. 43 milyar dolar\u0131n ise 2,90\u2019dan maliyeti 124 milyar 700 milyon TL. Aradaki TL baz\u0131nda rakamsal fark yok, dolar baz\u0131nda 17 milyar dolar azalsa da&#8230; Ama finanse etmek ad\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131, d\u00fcnden b\u00fcy\u00fck\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na. 2014 sonunda a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 440 milyar dolar. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 31 Aral\u0131k dolar\u00a0 \/ TL kuru 2,33&#8230; Dolar basamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re bize maliyeti 1 trilyon 25 milyar TL. A\u011fustos 2015 itibariyle pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 371 milyar dolar. 31 A\u011fustos 2015 itibariyle dolar \/ TL kurunda rakam 2,92 TL. Bize maliyeti; 1 trilyon 83 milyar TL. A\u00e7\u0131k 69 milyar dolar geriledi\u011fi halde.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye para bulabiliyor mu? A\u011fustos 2015 itibariyle resmi yollardan yurda giren para yuvarlak 12 milyar dolar; net hata noksan dedi\u011fimiz kayna\u011f\u0131 belirsiz gelen para 11 milyar dolar. Net hata noksan k\u00fcsuratlar i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r; 11 milyar dolarl\u0131k k\u00fcsurat olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin paraya ihtiyac\u0131 var m\u0131? \u015eimdi g\u00f6revde olmasa da ekonominin 12 y\u0131ll\u0131k patronu Ali Babacan \u015fu ifadeyi kullan\u0131yor: \u2018D\u00f6vizin bir \u015fekilde \u00fclkeye girmesi gerekiyor.\u2019 Olmad\u0131; yanl\u0131\u015f cevap. D\u00f6vizin \u00fcreterek, kazanarak, resmi kay\u0131tlardan bu \u00fclkeye girmesi gerekiyor. Kayna\u011f\u0131 belli olmayan paran\u0131n pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fseniz; ger\u00e7ek olmasa bile birileri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze dosya koyar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2139208309\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hepsini alt alta koydu\u011funuzda ise sonu\u00e7 \u015fu: Dolar baz\u0131nda azalan cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, TL maliyeti bak\u0131m\u0131ndan art\u0131yor ve art\u0131k yeni para bulam\u0131yoruz. Bulam\u0131yor olmal\u0131y\u0131z ki, \u2018d\u00f6viz bir \u015fekilde \u00fclkeye girmeli\u2019 k\u0131vam\u0131na gelmi\u015fiz. Bu \u00e7ok tehlikeli\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de cari a\u00e7\u0131k azald\u0131 masal\u0131n\u0131n bir ikiz karde\u015fi de yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Ama tebrik etmek laz\u0131m, medya yine bunu analiz etmeden ayn\u0131 k\u0131vamda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-42081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42081\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}