{"id":4206,"date":"2011-08-18T08:55:35","date_gmt":"2011-08-18T05:55:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4206"},"modified":"2011-08-18T08:55:44","modified_gmt":"2011-08-18T05:55:44","slug":"kuresel-duzeltme-senaryolari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kuresel-duzeltme-senaryolari\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel D\u00fczeltme Senaryolar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131da mali piyasa opti\u011finin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k. K\u00fcresel ekonominin girdi\u011fi darbo\u011faz\u0131n siyasi\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>geri<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0plan\u0131n\u0131 irdeledik. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeltme s\u00fcrecinde esas belirsizli\u011fin \u00c7in\u2019den kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna vard\u0131k.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-171536897\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mali piyasalar\u0131n k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli sorunlar\u0131na odaklanmak maalesef iktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n ufkunu daralt\u0131yor. Ya\u015fanan s\u00fcrecin\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ekonomi<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0politik boyutu ihmal ediliyor. Neticede b\u00fcy\u00fck (makro) resim g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>2008\u2019in\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0d\u00f6rt yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizin makro analizine ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u0130lki k\u00fcresel reel dengesizliklerle mali kriz aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi kuruyordu. Kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ABD-\u00c7in \u00f6rne\u011fini kulland\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cKu\u015fbak\u0131\u015f\u0131 K\u00fcresel D\u00fczeltme\u201d (25 Aral\u0131k 2008) ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 ikinci yaz\u0131 muhtemel d\u00fczeltme senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 ele ald\u0131. Temel makro dengelerden hareket ediyordu. G\u00fcncel baz\u0131 paragraflar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131m. Gerisi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cD\u00fczeltme bi\u00e7imleri\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cK\u00fcresel ekonominin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel sorun \u015fudur: \u00dcretti\u011finden fazla harcayan ekonomilerle (ABD) \u00fcretti\u011finden az harcayan ekonomiler (\u00c7in) aras\u0131nda \u00fcretim-harcama dengesi nas\u0131l yeniden tesis edilecek?<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>Bir<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ger\u00e7e\u011fi hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Ekonomilerde kay\u0131p ve kazan\u00e7lar birbirini g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez. Teknik tabirle, ya\u015famda s\u0131f\u0131r toplaml\u0131 oyunlar istisnad\u0131r. Herkesin kazanaca\u011f\u0131 ya da herkesin kaybedece\u011fi durumlar ise kurald\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Reel dengesizli\u011fin d\u00fczelmesi nas\u0131l olacak? T\u00fcketimin \u00fcretime oran\u0131 ABD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015fecek, \u00c7in\u2019de ise y\u00fckselecek. D\u00f6rt bilinmeyenimiz var: ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019de t\u00fcketim ve \u00fcretim miktarlar\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2989290398\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir u\u00e7 halden yola \u00e7\u0131kal\u0131m. Her iki \u00fclkede hem \u00fcretim hem t\u00fcketim azal\u0131r. Ama ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketim \u00fcretimden daha\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>h\u0131zl\u0131<\/strong><\/span>, \u00c7in\u2019de ise daha yava\u015f azal\u0131r. Reel dengesizlik k\u00fcresel k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ile d\u00fczelmi\u015ftir. \u0130ki taraf da kaybetmi\u015ftir. Buna \u2018B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran\u2019 diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer u\u00e7 hale ge\u00e7elim. Her iki \u00fclkede hem \u00fcretim hem t\u00fcketim artar. Ama ABD\u2019de \u00fcretim t\u00fcketimden daha h\u0131zl\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019de ise daha yava\u015f artar. Reel dengesizlik k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile d\u00fczelmi\u015ftir. \u0130ki taraf da kazan\u00e7l\u0131d\u0131r. Buna \u2018yumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u2019 diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki u\u00e7 hal aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok say\u0131da alternatif olabilir. Biri ilgin\u00e7: ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketim azal\u0131r, \u00fcretim artar; \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretim azal\u0131r, t\u00fcketim artar. Reel dengesizlik k\u00fcresel durgunlukla d\u00fczelmi\u015ftir. \u0130ki taraf\u0131n da kayb\u0131 ve kazanc\u0131 vard\u0131r. Buna \u2018sert ini\u015f\u2019 diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Anahtar iktisat politikalar\u0131d\u0131r<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2826527450\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Fiilen k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeltmenin alaca\u011f\u0131 \u015fekli iki taraf\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 iktisat politikalar\u0131 belirler. Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim. Denklemin bir taraf\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na kaderini kontrol edemez. Kendisinin ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar \u00f6tekinin ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6rnek olarak \u2018yumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u2019 sa\u011flayabilecek politika k\u00fcmesine bakal\u0131m. \u00c7in: Gev\u015fek para ve maliye politikas\u0131 ve Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131. ABD: S\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Ne anlama geliyor? \u00c7in ihracatla b\u00fcy\u00fcmekten, ABD i\u00e7 taleple b\u00fcy\u00fcmekten vazge\u00e7iyor. B\u00f6ylece hem kendileri hem k\u00fcresel ekonomi kazan\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte b\u00f6yle&#8230; Analizin hem son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131la hem yak\u0131n gelece\u011fe \u0131\u015f\u0131k tuttu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Galiba k\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr \u00fczerine yeni bir yaz\u0131 dizisi zaman\u0131 geldi. \u0130lk f\u0131rsatta&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en yaz\u0131da mali piyasa opti\u011finin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k. K\u00fcresel ekonominin girdi\u011fi darbo\u011faz\u0131n siyasi\u00a0geri\u00a0plan\u0131n\u0131 irdeledik. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeltme s\u00fcrecinde esas belirsizli\u011fin \u00c7in\u2019den kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucuna vard\u0131k. Mali piyasalar\u0131n k\u0131sa&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4206\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}