{"id":41913,"date":"2015-10-12T21:32:30","date_gmt":"2015-10-12T18:32:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=41913"},"modified":"2015-10-13T00:30:30","modified_gmt":"2015-10-12T21:30:30","slug":"orta-vadeli-palavra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/orta-vadeli-palavra\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Orta vadeli palavra"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ne b\u00fct\u00e7esi belli, ne de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin gelece\u011fi, ama biz orta vadeli program yapabiliyoruz. Elbette yine hayaller \u00fczerine kurulu ve tutmayacak hedeflerle\u2026 Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim bug\u00fcne kadar OVP\u2019de tek bir hedef bile tutturulamad\u0131.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1581439797\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi yine irtif\u00e2y\u0131 bilmeden, birilerinin pisti tarif eden yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara bakal\u0131m ama \u00f6ncesinde ortaya konulan performans kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015firketlerin, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ne ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u2018ba\u015fard\u0131k\u2019 nidalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ne durumda oldu\u011funu netle\u015ftirelim:<\/p>\n<p>Rakibinden dayak yiyen boks\u00f6re antren\u00f6r\u00fc habire \u2018\u00e7ok iyi gidiyorsun. Adam sana hi\u00e7 vuramad\u0131. Yak\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcreceksin\u2019 deyip duruyormu\u015f. Ma\u00e7\u0131n ilerleyen raundlar\u0131n\u0131n birinde boks\u00f6r dayanamay\u0131p antren\u00f6r\u00fcne sormu\u015f: \u2018Ben rakibi d\u00f6v\u00fcyorsam; beni kim d\u00f6v\u00fcyor?\u2019<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle y\u0131llard\u0131r bir palavradan \u00f6teye gidemeyen, kendi uydurdu\u011fu masala inanan siyaset\u00e7iler taraf\u0131ndan olu\u015fturulan bu program\u0131n, hep a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izelim. Bu nedenle, OVP\u2019ye inan\u0131p da zarar edenleri siz tahmin edin.<\/p>\n<p>Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan ise t\u00fcm iyimser yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, olumsuzluk i\u00e7inde bir tabloyu ortaya koyuyor. Bug\u00fcne kadarki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sapmalar ise, hedeflenen bu noktalar ad\u0131na T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin korkmas\u0131 gereken ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6rne\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 y\u0131la ili\u015fkin dolar kuru tahminlerine bakal\u0131m. Sadece bu kur olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 bile, program\u0131n ayaklar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar yere basmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131. 2015 sonu 2,7350 TL\u2026 2016 sonu 3,0895 TL\u2026 2017 sonu 3,2503TL ve 2018 sonu dolar 3.30 TL olarak hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>O halde Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131lsonuna ait 3,04\u2019e ili\u015fkin revizyonunu nas\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131klayacak? Tutars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, ortadaki vaka \u015fu ki, art\u0131k ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de dolar \/ TL \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmasa da, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llara ili\u015fkin TL baz\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 kabullenmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 \u015feyi s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn; keza b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklenti ad\u0131na da\u2026 Oranlar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmamakla birlikte, ekonomiden rakam anlayanlar\u0131n bile istatistiksel anlamda \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6rmezden gelemedi\u011fi \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3689287937\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eu bir ger\u00e7ek ki orta vadeli program, t\u0131pk\u0131 bu \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7 parayla s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen ve bata\u011fa saplanmas\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir beis g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen ekonomisinin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi gibi koca bir palavradan ibarettir.<\/p>\n<p>Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan da di\u011ferleri gibi hi\u00e7bir anlam ifade etmemekte, hayat\u0131n, reel piyasalar\u0131n, \u00fcreticinin, esnaf\u0131n, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekleriyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmemektedir. Bu nedenle ger\u00e7ek ad\u0131 orta vadeli palavrad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde kimsenin iki g\u00fcn sonras\u0131n\u0131 bile g\u00f6remedi\u011fi, ama az \u00e7ok olumsuzluklar\u0131n tahmin edildi\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te bu kadar r\u00fcyalarda gezen bir programa inan\u0131p, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 \u015fekillendirmeyin.<\/p>\n<p>Belki birilerinin umurunda olmayabilir. Fakat bu \u00fclke firmalar\u0131yla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131yla, \u00f6zelde kendi \u00fclkesinin, genelde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin a\u00e7mazlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bir anafora do\u011fru gidiyor. Bir ekonomik buhrandan \u00e7\u0131karken en \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan o \u00fclkenin \u00fcretime inanm\u0131\u015f, sanayicileri, KOB\u0130\u2019leri, i\u015f\u00e7ileri, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 yani vatanda\u015f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-60674514\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcrokrasi kendisini kaybetmi\u015f, patronun kim oldu\u011fu belli olmayan ekonomi y\u00f6netimi yalan r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 dizisinde rol kapma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmi\u015f; kurumlar\u0131 ne yaz\u0131k ki sonras\u0131nda \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacak olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, itibarlar\u0131n\u0131 eritmek i\u00e7in her \u015feyi yapar hale gelmi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Bu palavraya inan\u0131p da zarar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmeyin. Belki fatura \u00f6deyerek, ama ak\u0131ll\u0131ca, \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, Atat\u00fcrk\u2019\u00fcn g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi yakla\u015f\u0131mla, bilimle bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten hep beraber \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131z. Yeter ki ayakta kal\u0131n. Zira birileri 12 y\u0131ll\u0131k hatalar\u0131 yetmezmi\u015f gibi, bu \u00fclkenin insan\u0131n\u0131 palavrayla bat\u0131rmak i\u00e7in halen u\u011fra\u015f veriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ne olur; ak\u0131lla, bilimle ve s\u00f6ylenenle de\u011fil, ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ger\u00e7eklerle hareket edin. Sizler, \u00fcretmeden ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131na inananlar; bu \u00fclkeye, \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n\u0131za, ailenize laz\u0131ms\u0131n\u0131z. Bu rakamlar ve hedeflerle sizi aldat\u0131yorlar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin durumunu asl\u0131nda Iss\u0131z Adam filmindeki bir replik \u00e7ok g\u00fczel \u00f6zetliyor:<\/p>\n<p>Ne diyordu k\u0131z adama? \u201cKarda donmak \u00fczeresin. Uyumak tatl\u0131 geliyor ama sen \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn fark\u0131nda de\u011filsin.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ne b\u00fct\u00e7esi belli, ne de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin gelece\u011fi, ama biz orta vadeli program yapabiliyoruz. Elbette yine hayaller \u00fczerine kurulu ve tutmayacak hedeflerle\u2026 Dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-41913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41913\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}