{"id":41859,"date":"2015-10-08T22:30:56","date_gmt":"2015-10-08T19:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=41859"},"modified":"2015-10-09T00:02:47","modified_gmt":"2015-10-08T21:02:47","slug":"satmadan-uretiyorsan-batiyorsun-demektir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/satmadan-uretiyorsan-batiyorsun-demektir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Satmadan \u00fcretiyorsan; bat\u0131yorsun demektir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,9, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda A\u011fustos 2015 itibariyle y\u00fczde 7,2 artt\u0131. Esasen i\u015fletmeler var oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re imalat\u0131n devam etmesinden daha do\u011fal bir durum yok. Fakat ticaretin yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sorgulam\u0131yorsan\u0131z; ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bat\u0131\u015fa ko\u015fuyorsunuz demektir.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2108604439\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde bir sanayici ile sohbet ediyoruz; kendisine i\u015flerin nas\u0131l oldu\u011funu sordum: Dedi\u011fi \u015fuydu: \u201cMal almak isteyen var, ama ya \u00f6deme yapan yok ya da iki seneye yakla\u015fan vadeler konu\u015fuluyor.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Alacak sigorta \u015firketi Coface\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ad\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir risk vadesini 180 g\u00fcn, yani 3 ay belirledi\u011fi bir ortamda, iki y\u0131l vadeyle mal sat\u0131yorsan\u0131z, fark\u0131nda olmadan bat\u0131yorsunuz ya da gizli iflas i\u00e7inde ya\u015f\u0131yorsunuz demektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaman\u0131 geldi\u011finde o paray\u0131 tahsil edip edemeyece\u011finiz belli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Peki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler ne y\u00f6nde? Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ek oran\u0131nda de\u011fer yana maddi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 49 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde duruyor. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veri de senetlerde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n sekiz ay\u0131nda protestolu senet miktar\u0131n\u0131n 6,1 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Garip olan ise, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z evrak say\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f varken, \u00fczerinde yaz\u0131l\u0131 de\u011fer konusunda y\u00fczde 17\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu olmal\u0131. Yani daha az \u00f6deme arac\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek rakamlara imza at\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu i\u015fin gizli iflas boyutu\u2026 Peki, bu durumu daha dramatik hale getiren nedir? Satamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z veya satmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z mal\u0131 \u00fcretmek. Konuya vak\u0131f olanlar bilir. Bir fabrikan\u0131n ya da imalathanenin sabit giderleri vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Yani \u00e7arklar\u0131n durmas\u0131 dahi tek ba\u015f\u0131na maliyettir. Bilhassa enflasyonist d\u00f6nemden kalan al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131kla, \u00fcretici sipari\u015f alamasa da \u00fcretmeye devam eder. Zira b\u00f6ylesi bir ortamda \u00fcretti\u011fi, artan giderler nedeniyle yeni fiyat uygulamas\u0131yla zarar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan ger\u00e7ekten \u00fcretici her imal etti\u011fini satabiliyor mu? \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve i\u00e7 piyasadaki daralmay\u0131 dikkate al\u0131rsan\u0131z, bunun yan\u0131t\u0131 evet de olsa \u2018yetersiz\u2019dir. Zira bir \u00fclkede \u00fcretici d\u0131\u015f pazarlarda para kazanam\u0131yor; hatta sat\u0131\u015fta cephe kaybediyor; i\u00e7te de t\u00fcketicinin bat\u0131k bor\u00e7 seviyesi art\u0131yorsa \u00fcretti\u011fi, raf\u0131nda kal\u0131r ya da \u015f\u00fcpheli alacak haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4222734577\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Buna ra\u011fmen sanayi \u00fcretimi nas\u0131l y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 7,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor? Ama daha \u00f6nemlisi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,9\u2019luk art\u0131\u015f. Bunun a\u011fustos rakam\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 beklenti anketlerinin neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem verisinin de bu do\u011frultuda gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Ama yine de diyelim ki do\u011fru, peki bu nas\u0131l yorumlanabilir? Bunun birka\u00e7 nedeni var. Mukayese edilen 2014 senesinde oran\u0131n, normalin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bir sebep olabilir. Y\u00fczdesel bazda art\u0131\u015f buradan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi uzun vadelerle, tahsil\u00e2t\u0131 \u015f\u00fcpheli mal \u00fcretir ki, sorunu iki y\u0131l sonraya b\u00fcy\u00fcterek \u00f6teledi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc istatistiksel oynamalarla rakam k\u00fclliyen yaland\u0131r. Bu durumda zaten konu\u015facak bir \u015fey kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6rd\u00fcnce ba\u015fl\u0131kta da beklentileri ele alabiliriz. Dedik ya bu a\u011fustos ay\u0131 verisi. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir makyaj\u0131n etkisi de olabilir; piyasalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na y\u00f6nelik rafa mal \u00fcretilmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n da\u2026 Ama dedik ya, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda beklentiler \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. O zaman son ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmak gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3316523518\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Be\u015finci bir \u015f\u0131k var ki, ona dikkat etmek gerekiyor. \u00dcretici ya satamayaca\u011f\u0131 mal\u0131 \u00fcretiyor ve \u2018inceldi\u011fi yerden kopsun\u2019 diyerek tav\u0131r tak\u0131n\u0131yor ya da enflasyon s\u00f6ylenenin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde, tekrar enflasyonist ortamdaki ger\u00e7ekleriyle hareket ediyor. Yani rafa mal imal ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Her \u015feye ra\u011fmen bu gidi\u015fat \u00e7ok tehlikeli\u2026 Hangi se\u00e7enek g\u00fcndemde olursa olsun, k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lar\u0131yla ilgili a\u00e7maz ya\u015fayan, uzun vadeli alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 da ak\u0131l almaz vadelerle riske eden bir yap\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gizli iflas haline d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f demektir.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer bu gidi\u015fe ne\u015fter vurulmazsa, bug\u00fcn iflas mahkemesine ba\u015fvuran firma say\u0131s\u0131, \u00e7ok yak\u0131nda patlama noktas\u0131na gelir. Bunun da tek bir anlam\u0131 var: Kaybedilen i\u015fletmeler ve daha da kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan bir i\u015fsizlik sorunu. \u00dcretici g\u00fcn\u00fc kurtarman\u0131n derdinde ama meslek odalar\u0131 ve \u00f6rg\u00fctleri art\u0131k tepelerden korkmay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p; \u00fcyelerine ger\u00e7e\u011fi s\u00f6ylemek zorunda\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Satmadan \u00fcretiyorsan, bat\u0131yorsun demektir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,9, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda A\u011fustos 2015 itibariyle y\u00fczde 7,2 artt\u0131. Esasen i\u015fletmeler var oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re imalat\u0131n devam etmesinden daha do\u011fal bir durum&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-41859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41859\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}