{"id":41648,"date":"2015-09-29T23:38:43","date_gmt":"2015-09-29T20:38:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=41648"},"modified":"2015-09-30T08:35:28","modified_gmt":"2015-09-30T05:35:28","slug":"zorlama-basci-olmuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/zorlama-basci-olmuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Zorlama Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 olmuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi\u2019nde bir sunum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. \u0130tibar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018dolar 1,92 olacak\u2019 s\u00f6ylemiyle ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7te h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayan ve ekonomi y\u00f6netimini aklamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, olas\u0131 krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta en gerekli kurumlardan biri olan Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u00f6netimdeki yakla\u015f\u0131m nedeniyle h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fersizle\u015ftiren bir yap\u0131ya b\u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fc. Ba\u015fkan, kendisiyle birlikte, kurumu da siyasete kurban ediyor.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3696190137\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Uzun uzun analiz etmeye gerek yok. Sunumdan d\u00f6rt s\u00f6ylemi al\u0131p, ger\u00e7e\u011fini ortaya koyal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCari a\u00e7\u0131kta iyile\u015fmenin a\u011fustos verisi ile birlikte, y\u0131l boyunca devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte.\u201d Do\u011frusu iyile\u015fme daralmadan kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u00dcretim yapamayan, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde ithalat\u0131 tetikleyerek cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusuna katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan sanayici durgunlukla cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. S\u0131cak para giri\u015fi de olmay\u0131nca bunu finanse etmek imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca rakamsal olarak ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ad\u0131na hi\u00e7bir anlam ifade etmiyor. 2,14\u2019ten hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z 70 milyar dolar ile, 3 ve \u00fczeri dolar kurundan hesaplanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f cari a\u00e7\u0131kta, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye maliyeti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hi\u00e7bir olumlu geli\u015fme yok.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAvrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomilerindeki talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda artacak.\u201d Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019dan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra Almanya\u2019da enflasyonun negatif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7ti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. En b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131m\u0131z da t\u00fcketmiyor. AB\u2019ye olan ihracat s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi gibi artm\u0131yor. Alternatif pazarlar\u0131 tamamen kaybetti\u011fimiz i\u00e7in ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7indeki AB pay\u0131 art\u0131yor. \u0130hracat\u0131n da s\u00fcrekli bir gerileme i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu da konu\u015fulmayan bir ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131, d\u00f6viz kurunun etkileri ve enflasyon beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklanan riskleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in likidite politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korumakta.\u201d Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 bunlar\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken y\u0131lsonu dolar beklentisinin 3,04, konu\u015ftu\u011fu s\u0131rada ise 3,03 \u2013 3,05 band\u0131nda hareket etti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Yeter mi? Hay\u0131r&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan sonra IMF nas\u0131l bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131yor? D\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma konusunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi uyar\u0131p, kurumsal bor\u00e7 \u2013 \u00f6z sermaye oran\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 olumsuz y\u00fckseli\u015fe dikkat \u00e7ekip, dolardaki de\u011ferlenmenin \u00f6demeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. \u0130kinci ba\u015fl\u0131k enflasyon&#8230; Sokaktaki enflasyon ne? A\u00e7\u0131klanan\u0131n 4 kat\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTCMB, a\u00e7\u0131klanan k\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde yol haritas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda, yak\u0131n zamanda geni\u015f bir tedbir uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.\u201d<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-307850440\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 saatlerde Fitch, k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde meydana gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Toplam rezerv ne kadar? 118 milyar dolar. Bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ve her y\u0131l bulunmas\u0131 gereken nakit ne? 200 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Kasada k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131 bir kenara koyarsan\u0131z, operasyonel g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak ne kadar nakit var? Tahmini 30 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda. Yine IMF raporunda ne s\u00f6yleniyor? K\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n direnci azald\u0131. Likidite \u015fartlar\u0131nda riskler art\u0131yor. Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, hangi normalle\u015fmeden bahsediyor?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Daha do\u011frusu Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 ne anlat\u0131yor? Be\u015ftepe\u2019deki uzla\u015fma ger\u00e7e\u011fi gizleyip, se\u00e7imlerin \u00f6ncesinde, olaylar\u0131 sapt\u0131rarak iktidar\u0131 aklamak m\u0131yd\u0131? Zorlama Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 olmuyor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2708601775\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi\u2019nde bir sunum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. \u0130tibar\u0131n\u0131 \u2018dolar 1,92 olacak\u2019 s\u00f6ylemiyle ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7te h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayan ve ekonomi y\u00f6netimini aklamaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-41648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41648\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}