{"id":4162,"date":"2011-08-17T09:16:02","date_gmt":"2011-08-17T06:16:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4162"},"modified":"2011-08-17T09:25:16","modified_gmt":"2011-08-17T06:25:16","slug":"bu-kosullarda-iyimser-olmak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bu-kosullarda-iyimser-olmak\/","title":{"rendered":"Bu Ko\u015fullarda \u0130yimser Olmak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Herhalde fark\u0131ndas\u0131n\u0131z. Son haftalardaki sert \u00e7alkalanmaya ra\u011fmen ben hala iyimser tarafta yer al\u0131yorum. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser oldu\u011fumu hatta bu iyimserlik i\u015fini abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131\u00a0 s\u00f6yleyenler de var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1485810367\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Finansal \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tepe yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u00fcreklerin a\u011f\u0131za geldi\u011f\u00a0 bir ortamda iyimser olmak zor bir zanaat. \u0130yimser alanda kalmak hi\u00e7 de iyi olmayan\u00a0 baz\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri yads\u0131mak ya da en az\u0131ndan g\u00f6rmezden gelmekle \u00f6zde\u015fle\u015ftiriliyor.Alg\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6yle oldu\u011fu bir ortamda ben iyimserim diye ortal\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fcl\u00fcnce tepki al\u0131yorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda \u00f6zel bir vurgu yapmak ihtiyac\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ortaya. Benim iyimserli\u011fim iyi olmayan geli\u015fmeleri saklamak, g\u00f6rmezden gelmek vb gibi ka\u00e7\u0131\u015flar \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmi\u015f de\u011fil. Tersine, hem k\u00fcresel hem de ulusal planda pek \u00e7ok olumsuzluk oldu\u011funu, bunlar\u0131n t\u0131rmanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini kabul ediyorum. Bu olumsuzluklar\u0131n k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi bunun bizi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. \u00dcstelik, son yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131 hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, bu olumsuz geli\u015fmelerin hem k\u00fcresel planda hem de ulusal ba\u011flamda k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netildi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 bir araya getirince\u00a0 durumumuzun y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle Mart 2011&#8217;e, k\u0131yasla k\u00f6t\u00fcledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fim ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki birader, senin neren iyimser diye sorgulayabilirsiniz. \u00c7ok uzatmadan s\u00f6yleyeyim. Derin bir k\u00fcresel krizin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve bizim bir kez daha yere \u00e7ak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, derin depresyonlara s\u00fcr\u00fcklenece\u011fimiz y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki analizlere, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum.\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel bula\u015fmalara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek bir ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131klk geli\u015ftirmi\u015f oldu\u011fu kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Bula\u015fma dinami\u011fini k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netmi\u015f olmam\u0131za ra\u011fmen hasar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bunun kan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ve ulusal ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131ndan bir cenaze t\u00f6reni \u00e7\u0131kartm\u0131yorum. Benim iyimserli\u011fim bu<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel planda geli\u015fen ve kriz olarak alg\u0131lanan s\u00fcre\u00e7le ilgili bir noktan\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izme ihtiyac\u0131 duyuyorum. Son finansal \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 ABD ve AB&#8217;de kamu bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu sorunu ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz.\u00a0 Her iki alanda da sorunun b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz bir noktada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da biliniyor. Bu durmda\u00a0 neredeyse k\u00fcresel\u00a0 kilitlenme yaratacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcye ula\u015fan gerilimin olay\u0131n ekonomik parametrelerinden kaynaklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-825388670\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Finansal \u00e7alkant\u0131 \u00fcreten gerilimin temel belirleyicisi\u00a0 hem ABD&#8217;de hem de AB&#8217;de siyasi y\u00f6netimlerin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme yana\u015fmamalar\u0131, tersine bu durumu siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fme imkan\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmi\u015f olmalar\u0131d\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Sorunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde siyaset kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcnce bunun herhangi bir iktisadi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131ktan daha\u00e7abuk ve\u00a0 kolay \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcd\u00fc. Bunu g\u00f6renler g\u00f6reli iyimserliklerini korudular ve cenaze t\u00f6reni haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131na kat\u0131lmad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel \u00e7alkant\u0131\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kriz \u00fcretmesinin zor oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceme de a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k getirmek istiyorum. 2001 krizinin ertesinde ba\u015flat\u0131lan iktisadi onar\u0131m s\u00fcrecinin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelecek esintilere kar\u015f\u0131 direncini peki\u015ftirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bunun i\u00e7in de iki kan\u0131t g\u00f6steriyorum. Birisi finans-banka sisteminin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilip, daha etkin bir denetim alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r.\u00a0 \u0130kincisi de kamu maliyesi alan\u0131nda etkin bir onar\u0131m yap\u0131larak a\u00e7\u0131k ve bor\u00e7lanma sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu iki alnda yap\u0131lan onar\u0131m T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3072836334\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin gelenksel problemi olan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde tavan yapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ku\u015fkusuz ciddi bir sorun. Ancak bundan d\u00f6rt ba\u015f\u0131 mamur bir kriz \u00fcremeyece\u011fi de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Dikkatli bir analizle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na paralel olarak d\u00f6viz kurunun daha uygun d\u00fczeye gelece\u011fini ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ivmesini kaybedece\u011fini ve duraklayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek\u00a0 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Bunu\u00a0 g\u00f6renler iyimserliklerini korudular. Karamsar senaryolardan uzak durdular. Ben de bunlara kat\u0131ld\u0131m.\u0130yimser kald\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herhalde fark\u0131ndas\u0131n\u0131z. Son haftalardaki sert \u00e7alkalanmaya ra\u011fmen ben hala iyimser tarafta yer al\u0131yorum. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser oldu\u011fumu hatta bu iyimserlik i\u015fini abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131\u00a0 s\u00f6yleyenler de var. Finansal&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4162\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}