{"id":41440,"date":"2015-09-17T17:24:40","date_gmt":"2015-09-17T14:24:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=41440"},"modified":"2015-09-17T17:34:05","modified_gmt":"2015-09-17T14:34:05","slug":"artirmak-ya-da-artirmamak-iste-butun-mesele-bu-fomc-beklentiler-eylul-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/artirmak-ya-da-artirmamak-iste-butun-mesele-bu-fomc-beklentiler-eylul-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Art\u0131rmak ya da art\u0131rmamak; i\u015fte b\u00fct\u00fcn mesele bu!&#8221;  &#8211; FOMC Beklentiler &#8211; Eyl\u00fcl 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Son y\u0131llar\u0131n belki de en kritik FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 geldi \u00e7att\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed \u00fcyelerinin ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin beklentilerini 17 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe (bug\u00fcn) saat TS\u0130 21:00\u2019da \u00f6\u011frenece\u011fiz. Karar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan herkesin g\u00f6z\u00fc kula\u011f\u0131 21:30\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olacak.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2659248399\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu yaz\u0131da Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerimi ve Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7mi\u015fte yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar \u00fczerindeki beklentileri detayl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ele ald\u0131m. Son da s\u00f6yleyece\u011fimi ba\u015ftan s\u00f6yleyeyim; faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n bu gece ba\u015flamas\u0131 da \u00f6telenmesi de s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fil. \u0130ster bug\u00fcn ister birka\u00e7 ay sonra ba\u015flayacak olan Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin e\u015fi\u011findeyiz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, as\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan; ilk art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131ndan ziyade bu art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n nas\u0131l bir h\u0131zda devam edece\u011fi. Bunu ben de\u011fil, tarih s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Fed&#8217;in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 neden bu kadar \u00f6nemli?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Parti Bitiyor\u2026D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u2013 bol likidite d\u00f6nemi sona eriyor\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41442 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/FED1.png\" alt=\"FED1\" width=\"338\" height=\"207\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/FED1.png 338w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/FED1-300x184.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 338px) 100vw, 338px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019de ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel krizle birlikte Fed, faizleri olabildi\u011fince d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere indirerek geni\u015fleyici bir para politikas\u0131 izlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131 gibi geleneksel olmayan para politikas\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131yla da bu politikay\u0131 destekledi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u2013 bol likidite d\u00f6nemi olarak adland\u0131r\u0131labilecek bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca ba\u015fta geli\u015fen piyasalar olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke borsas\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi y\u00fckseli\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Fed bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te farkl\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde 3 adet niceliksel geni\u015fleme (Quantitative Easing \u2013 QE) program\u0131 uygulad\u0131. 2008, 2010 ve 2012 y\u0131llar\u0131nda uygulanan QE-1, QE-2 ve QE3 programlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel piyasalarda, \u00f6zellikle de sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalardan geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalara d\u00f6nmesiyle, \u00e7ok ciddi bir co\u015fku yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesinde 700 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda olan FED bilan\u00e7osu bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te 4 trilyon dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<br \/>\nFed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirme kapsam\u0131nda s\u0131radaki ad\u0131m olan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla birlikte ba\u015flayacak olan s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7ekilecek miktar\u0131n bu denli y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 (tamam\u0131 olmasa da) k\u00fcresel piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en ba\u015fta gelen stres unsurlar\u0131ndan biri.<\/p>\n<p><em>Risk \u0130\u015ftah\u0131 Sermaye Hareketlerinin Y\u00f6n De\u011fi\u015ftirmesine Yol A\u00e7acak\u2026<\/em><br \/>\nYukar\u0131da da de\u011finildi\u011fi gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u2013 bol likidite d\u00f6nemi boyunca risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilere do\u011fru \u00f6nemli bir sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusuydu. Ancak, ABD ekonomisinden gelen toparlanma sinyalleri sonras\u0131nda d\u00f6nemin Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda mevcut QE-3 varl\u0131k al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131lsonundan itibaren kademeli bir \u015fekilde azaltmaya ba\u015flayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden de Bernanke\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve bol likiditenin finansal piyasalara ya\u015fatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 partinin sonuna gelinmekte oldu\u011funun ilk ciddi sinyaliydi. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla sermaye hareketlerinin y\u00f6ne de\u011fi\u015ftirerek geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalardan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere do\u011fru hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n bu s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 beklenmesi, geli\u015fen piyasalardaki bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli risk unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n<p><em>Yabanc\u0131 Sermaye Hareketlerine Ba\u011fl\u0131 Ekonomileri Zor G\u00fcnler Bekliyor\u2026<\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4101697965\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Fed2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41443 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Fed2.png\" alt=\"Fed2\" width=\"423\" height=\"198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Fed2.png 423w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Fed2-300x140.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 423px) 100vw, 423px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yabanc\u0131 sermaye ihtiyac\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan ekonomiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz \u2013 bol likidite d\u00f6neminden olduk\u00e7a olumlu etkilendi. Ancak, bu s\u00fcrecin sona ermekte olmas\u0131yla birlikte d\u0131\u015f finansman ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler de artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcreciyle birlikte k\u00fcresel anlamda faizlerin art\u0131\u015f trendine girmesiyle d\u0131\u015f finansmana eri\u015fim maliyetini artmas\u0131 ve sermaye hareketlerinde g\u00f6zlenen y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminin \u00f6zellikle cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomilerini negatif etkilenmesi bekleniyor. Y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle \u201cK\u0131r\u0131lgan Be\u015fli\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, G\u00fcney Afrika ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten en fazla olumsuz etkiyi alaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p><em>Faiz \u2013 Enflasyon \u2013 B\u00fcy\u00fcme Paradoksu\u2026<\/em><br \/>\nSon d\u00f6nemlerde \u00c7in ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomisinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flaman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra; \u00f6nemli say\u0131daki geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke ekonomisinde de beklenen toparlanma h\u00e2len g\u00f6r\u00fclebilmi\u015f de\u011fil. Buna ek olarak ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcdeki parasal geni\u015flemeye ve faizlerin rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi ve Japonya gibi d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6neme sahip ekonomilerdeki deflasyon riski de bertaraf edilebilmi\u015f de\u011fil. Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte k\u00fcresel anlamda faizlerde g\u00f6zlenecek art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi k\u0131sa vadede olmasa da uzun vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon taraf\u0131na negatif etki edebilir. Yani, ekonomideki toparlanman\u0131n imk\u00e2n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 ve miktar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas bir dengeye sahip. Hem ABD hem de k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan erken olacak bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcreci k\u00fcresel ekonominin yeni bir paradoksla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi?<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\nAylard\u0131r Fed, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ne zaman ba\u015flayacak sorusuyla yat\u0131p kalk\u0131yoruz desek yeridir san\u0131r\u0131m. Bu durumun getirdi\u011fi belirsizlik ortam\u0131 piyasalardaki en \u00f6nemli stres kaynaklar\u0131ndan biri olmaya devam ediyor. O kadar uzun s\u00fcredir zihnimiz bu soruyla me\u015fgul ki, art\u0131k art\u0131rsalar da rahatlasak demeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. Belki de bu ak\u015fam kafam\u0131zdaki bu kocaman soru i\u015faretinden kurtulaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Her ne kadar son d\u00f6nemlerde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin yeniden \u00f6telenmesine neden olsa da, bu haftaki toplant\u0131da al\u0131nacak bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok da s\u00fcrpriz olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek l\u00e2z\u0131m. Belki ilk hamlenin tam olarak ne zaman gelece\u011fini hen\u00fcz bilmiyoruz; ama Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 bitmeden bir art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 son d\u00f6nemlerde s\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirmesinden hareketle, bu ay veya de\u011fil, ama art\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011fumuzu biliyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1085305541\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki, Fed daha \u00f6nce faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n reaksiyonu nas\u0131l olmu\u015ftu? 1965 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Fed toplam 15 defa s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 izledi. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ve biti\u015f s\u00fcreci ile bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7erisinde S&amp;P 500 endeksinin nas\u0131l bir performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6zet istatistikler verilmi\u015ftir:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41444 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z.png\" alt=\"Ads\u0131z\" width=\"605\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z.png 605w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z-300x158.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nYukar\u0131daki tabloda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, S&amp;P 500 endeksi Fed\u2019in son 15 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131ndan 1 ay sonra ortalama % 0.8 y\u00fckselirken; 12 ay sonra bu prim % 4.4\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer taraftan, ABD 10 Y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri, son 15 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcrecinin tamam\u0131 boyunca ortalama 120 baz puan art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41445 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z2.png\" alt=\"Ads\u0131z2\" width=\"373\" height=\"286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z2.png 373w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z2-300x230.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 373px) 100vw, 373px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcrece ili\u015fkin bildi\u011fimiz bir di\u011fer unsur da faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcyle yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131. K\u00fcresel ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131klar s\u00fcrerken, gelecek h\u0131zl\u0131 ya da erken art\u0131r\u0131mlar, dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7acak ve k\u00fcresel ekonomik dengeleri ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sarsacakt\u0131r. Ki bu da Fed\u2019in bir nevi kendi aya\u011f\u0131na s\u0131kmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Fed yetkilileri de art\u0131r\u0131mlar konusunda aceleci olmayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve ilk art\u0131r\u0131m sonras\u0131ndaki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n yava\u015f bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini taahh\u00fct ediyor. 1965 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Fed toplam 15 defa para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya, yani faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitti. Bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131n h\u0131zlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca S&amp;P 500 endeksinde g\u00f6zlenen hareketler grafikte verilmi\u015ftir. Grafikten de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere yava\u015f bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n hisse senedi piyasas\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini ancak; h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcdeki art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi manada sarst\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Her iki d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131na bakarak; faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 \u2013 6 ay sonra azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcre\u00e7leri, e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011fumuz faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda o kadar da korkulacak bir etki b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; hata bu art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yava\u015f bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc i\u00e7erisinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde piyasalar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a pozitif bile etkilendi\u011fini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Son faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcrecinde ne oldu?<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\nFed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini tarihsel olarak inceledik. \u015eimdi, Fed son faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi yak\u0131ndan inceleyelim.<\/p>\n<p>Fed son olarak 30 Haziran 2004 \u2013 29 Haziran 2006 tarihleri aras\u0131nda faizlerde art\u0131\u015fa gitti. 2000 \u2013 2004 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle de 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan sonra ekonomiyi canland\u0131rabilmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019deki faizler % 6.50\u2019den 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan % 1.00\u2019e kadar gerilemi\u015fti. ABD ekonomisinden gelen toparlanma sinyalleriyle birlikte 2004 Haziran\u2019\u0131ndan itibaren pe\u015f pe\u015fe 17 toplant\u0131 da 0.25 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa giderek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 % 5.25\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseltti. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca S&amp;P 500 ve BIST-100 endeksinin sergiledi\u011fi performans g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z3.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41446 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z3.png\" alt=\"ads\u0131z3\" width=\"553\" height=\"163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z3.png 553w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z3-300x88.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca, son d\u00f6nemlerde oldu\u011fu gibi ABD ekonomisindeki toparlanma h\u0131z\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak beklentilerde meydana gelen de\u011fi\u015fiklikler zaman zaman k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki stresi art\u0131rsa da grafiklerden de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere gerek S&amp;P 500\u2019de gerekse de o g\u00fcnk\u00fc ad\u0131yla \u0130MKB-100 endeksinde bu faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcreci boyunca bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu durumda Fed\u2019in yava\u015f faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, 2000 \u2013 2004 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131n ABD ekonomisine getirdi\u011fi canlanman\u0131n etkisinden de bahsetmek gerekir. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de bu d\u00f6nemdeki temel hik\u00e2yenin; 2001 krizi sonras\u0131nda ekonominin istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 (b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon taraf\u0131ndaki olumlu performans\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00f6zelle\u015ftirmelerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131) ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fcyeli\u011fine ili\u015fkin s\u00fcren m\u00fczakereler oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z4.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41448 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z4.png\" alt=\"ads\u0131z4\" width=\"604\" height=\"372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z4.png 604w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z4-300x185.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 604px) 100vw, 604px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nFaiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru her iki borsada da bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmekle beraber, T\u00fcrkiye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar daha negatif ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor (\u00f6zellikle grafi\u011fin sa\u011f taraf\u0131nda daire i\u00e7ine al\u0131nan b\u00f6l\u00fcm). Bu durumun temel nedeni ABD enflasyonundaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi dizginlemek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edece\u011fi endi\u015fesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin negatif ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na neden olan geli\u015fmeleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da \u00f6zetleyece\u011fim:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ve borsa 2006 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131na olduk\u00e7a olumlu bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yap\u0131yor ve \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda o d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in olan tarihi zirvesini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor<\/li>\n<li>Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren TCMB\u2019ye atanacak yeni ba\u015fkan konusunda ya\u015fanan kriz<\/li>\n<li>H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nerdi\u011fi isim d\u00f6nemin Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan veto ediliyor (Ki bu kriz d\u00f6nemi boyunca TCMB Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revinde vek\u00e2leten Say\u0131n Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 bulunuyor)<\/li>\n<li>Yine Mart ay\u0131nda Ekonomiden Sorumlu Eski Bakan Dervi\u015f\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 YTL a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Erken se\u00e7im s\u00f6ylentileri ve Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Se\u00e7imi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131<\/li>\n<li>H\u00fck\u00fcmet \u2013 Genelkurmay aras\u0131ndaki \u015eemdinli olay\u0131 gerginli\u011fi<\/li>\n<li>TCMB\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerin d\u00f6viz taraf\u0131ndaki ate\u015fi s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye yetmemesi<\/li>\n<li>\u015eok faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klara yap\u0131lan ayarlamalar, y\u00fcksek miktardaki d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihaleleri vs.<\/li>\n<li>Fitch\u2019ten gelen not indirimi uyar\u0131s\u0131<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019den sonra Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi ve Japonya\u2019dan gelen faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u00fcksek orandaki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ek olarak yukar\u0131daki geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131; \u00fclkemizin bu d\u00f6nemde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda en \u00e7ok negatif ayr\u0131\u015fan \u00fclke olmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin negatif ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na neden olan 2006 resmiyle bug\u00fcn\u00fcn resmi aras\u0131ndaki benzerlikler olduk\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekici. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde yine faizlerin yava\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcyle artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklendi\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 var. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sisli yolu olabildi\u011fince sorunsuz ge\u00e7ebilmenin, hatta bu s\u00fcreci f\u0131rsat\u0131 \u00e7evirebilmenin bize g\u00f6re 3 temel \u00f6n \u015fart\u0131 var: Ekonomik ger\u00e7eklerin fark\u0131nda olan uzun soluklu bir ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131sal reformlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verecek bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet\/maliye politikas\u0131 ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir merkez bankas\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Piyasa ne bekliyor?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z5.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-41449 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z5.png\" alt=\"Ads\u0131z5\" width=\"710\" height=\"234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z5.png 753w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z5-300x99.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 710px) 100vw, 710px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki tablo ve grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere son d\u00f6nemlerde Fed\u2019den ve \u00fcyelerinden gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerdeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artmas\u0131na neden oldu. Son d\u00f6nemlerde faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ili\u015fkin beklentilerin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ku\u015fkusuz, bu e\u011filim \u00fczerinde yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler kadar \u00c7in taraf\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin de pay\u0131 var. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 itibariyle ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler % 32.0 d\u00fczeyinde.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Peki ekonomik veriler ne diyor?<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\nTemmuz ay\u0131ndaki son FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan \u00f6zet metinde;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ABD ekonomisindeki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n devam etti\u011fi,<\/li>\n<li>Tam istihdam ve fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik e\u011filimleri desteklemek maksad\u0131yla faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n uygun oldu\u011fu,<\/li>\n<li>Komitenin tam istihdam ve % 2 enflasyon hedefine y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirmelerini,<\/li>\n<li>\u0130stihdam piyasas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerini,<\/li>\n<li>Enflasyon \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar ve enflasyon beklentilerini,<\/li>\n<li>Finansal ve Uluslaraaras\u0131 geli\u015fmelerini de kapsayan olduk\u00e7a geni\u015f bir seti \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Komitenin faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flamak i\u00e7in uygun zaman\u0131n, istihdam piyasas\u0131nda daha fazla iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ve enflasyonun orta vadede % 2 hedefine eri\u015fece\u011finden iyice emin olunmas\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Temmuz ay\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, istihdam piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin mevcut toparlanma e\u011filim<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41450 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z6.png\" alt=\"ads\u0131z6\" width=\"300\" height=\"318\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z6.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/ads\u0131z6-283x300.png 283w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>ini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (TD\u0130) rakam\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 223 bin seviyesindeki beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda 173 bin olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ilk anda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini zay\u0131flatacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de; Temmuz ay\u0131 TD\u0130 rakam\u0131n\u0131n 215 binden 245 bine revize edilmesi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in tam istihdam seviyesi olarak i\u015faret etti\u011fi % 5.1 seviyesine gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini destekleyen geli\u015fmeler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, her ne kadar A\u011fustos ay\u0131 istihdam verileri beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f olsa da; A\u011fustos verilerine ili\u015fkin ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlar\u0131n y\u0131llar itibariyle genel olarak \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sapma g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ve bir sonraki verinin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ciddi \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 revize edildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 konusunda istihdam taraf\u0131ndan Fed\u2019i k\u0131s\u0131tlayan ciddi bir olumsuzluk olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon taraf\u0131n\u0131n ise h\u00e2len zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerinden de \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan A\u011fustos ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 da ayl\u0131k bazda % 0.1 oran\u0131nda daralma g\u00f6stererek faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 konusunda Fed\u2019in elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilecek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergilemedi denilebilir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z7.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41451 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z7.png\" alt=\"Ads\u0131z7\" width=\"663\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z7.png 663w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z7-300x85.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 663px) 100vw, 663px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Peki ya toplant\u0131da oy kullanacak Fed \u00fcyeleri?<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\n2015 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle FOMC \u00fcyelerinde, her y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi, baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler oldu. \u00d6nceki y\u0131l komite de komite de muhalif pozisyonda yer alan 3 \u00fcyenin art\u0131k oy hakk\u0131 bulunmuyor. Bu \u00fcyelerin yerine daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fcyelerin gelmesi nedeniyle; FOMC\u2019nin yeni yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, politika belirlenmesi konusunda uyu\u015fmazl\u0131klara \u00e7ok ihtimal b\u0131rakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n ilk FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z not ile belirtmi\u015ftik.<br \/>\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablolarda FOMC\u2019nin 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 oy hakk\u0131 olan \u00fcye da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 verilmi\u015ftir. Ye\u015fil renkle yaz\u0131lan \u00fcyeler bu sene oy hakk\u0131 olanlar\u0131 Tabloda yer alan puanlamalar, Deutsche Bank taraf\u0131ndan FOMC \u00fcyelerinin tutumlar\u0131na (g\u00fcvercin &#8211; \u015fahin) y\u00f6nelik puanlamalar\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Tablonun en sa\u011f k\u0131sm\u0131nda yer alan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ise 30.08.2015 tarihinde www.businessht.com.tr adresinde yer alan de\u011ferlendirmeden al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z8.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41452 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z8.png\" alt=\"Ads\u0131z8\" width=\"675\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z8.png 675w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Ads\u0131z8-300x132.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nKaynak: Deustche Bank, www.businessht.com.tr<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte ise Fed \u00fcyelerinin Fed politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentilerinin Mart ve Haziran aylar\u0131nda g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi de\u011fi\u015fim yer almaktad\u0131r. Her 3 ayda bir oldu\u011fu gibi bu ak\u015fam ki toplant\u0131dan sonra da Fed \u00fcyelerinin ekonomik g\u00f6stergelere ve Fed politika faizine ili\u015fkin beklentilerini de g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/fed3.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-41453 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/fed3.png\" alt=\"fed3\" width=\"595\" height=\"319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/fed3.png 619w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/fed3-300x161.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u00d6zetle\u2026<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\n2004 \u2013 2006 d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi ileti\u015fim politikalar\u0131n\u0131, \u015fu ana kadar Fed\u2019den ve \u00fcyelerinden gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, ABD\u2019den gelen son ekonomik verileri, finansal piyasalardaki son geli\u015fmeleri ve piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki son durumu dikkate alarak bu ak\u015fam bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelmesindense Ekim ya da Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00f6telenmesi ihtimalinin bir miktar daha kuvvetli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak, olas\u0131 0.25 ya da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranda gelecek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelmezse;<\/strong> y\u00fcksek ihtimalle toplant\u0131 \u00f6zetine \u201cfaiz oranlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131labilece\u011fi\u201dne at\u0131fta bulunan bir ifade eklenebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ya da toplant\u0131 \u00f6zetinde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na ili\u015fkin yine somut bir mesaj gelmez ise; k\u00fcresel piyasalarda ve Borsa \u0130stanbul\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclse bile, belirsizli\u011fin getirece\u011fi stresin hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 ve yerel para birimlerinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelirse;<\/strong> bunun 0.25 ya da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviye olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131n finansal piyasalarda bir \u015fok yaratmamas\u0131 ad\u0131na da Fed \u00fcyelerinin faiz beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimin, toplant\u0131 \u00f6zetinde yer alacak ifadelerin ya da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verece\u011fi mesajlar\u0131n gelecek birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde art\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha yava\u015f bir h\u0131zla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini i\u015faret edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, son d\u00f6nemlerde oldu\u011fu gibi Fed kritik d\u00f6neme\u00e7lerde piyasalarda bir deprem yaratmamak ad\u0131na muhtemelen bir yerden al\u0131rken bir yerden de vermeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, bu ak\u015fam faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gelse de gelmese s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. Son d\u00f6nemlerde k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki en \u00f6nemli iki stres unsurunun \u00c7in ve Fed oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa, olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla birlikte finansal piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n gelmesi; Fed belirsizli\u011fini ortadan kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in olabilecek en olumlu senaryo olarak da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flanmas\u0131 \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcredir beklendi\u011finden, zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamalara girmi\u015f oldu\u011funu da unutmayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kadar olan ve hemen sonras\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrecin \u015fu ana kadar oldu\u011fu gibi k\u00fcresel piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tansiyon art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir unsur olmaya devam edece\u011fi a\u015fik\u00e2r. Ama, as\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan; ilk art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131ndan ziyade bu art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n nas\u0131l bir h\u0131zda devam edece\u011fi\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\"><strong>Erol G\u00fcrcan<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son y\u0131llar\u0131n belki de en kritik FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 geldi \u00e7att\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed \u00fcyelerinin ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin beklentilerini 17 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe (bug\u00fcn) saat&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2885,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1083,1352,1456,1492,1493,1494,1355,1356,1357,1358,1359,1360,1362],"class_list":["post-41440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-araci-kurum-arastirma-raporlari","tag-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-faiz-artirimi","tag-fed-faiz-artiracak-mi","tag-fed-faiz-artirir-mi","tag-fed-faiz-artirirsa-ne-olur","tag-makro-ekonomi-analizleri","tag-makro-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz","tag-makro-ekonomik-analiz-raporlari","tag-makro-ekonomik-analizler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergeler","tag-makro-ekonomik-gostergelerin-yorumlanmasi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2885"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}