{"id":41174,"date":"2015-09-10T08:43:39","date_gmt":"2015-09-10T05:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=41174"},"modified":"2015-09-10T08:46:12","modified_gmt":"2015-09-10T05:46:12","slug":"kuresel-piyasalarda-yeniden-stres","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kuresel-piyasalarda-yeniden-stres\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel Piyasalarda Yeniden Stres"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>D\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f piyasalar \u00e7ok olumluydu. \u00d6zellikle Japonya&#8217;da \u00e7ok sert bir art\u0131\u015f vard\u0131. \u00c7in ve di\u011fer Asya borsalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fler yapmas\u0131 ve ABD endekslerinin future&#8217;lar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 1&#8217;in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da olmalar\u0131, bizim borsam\u0131z\u0131n da y\u00fckselerek a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-850709835\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Endeks a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda 72.800 seviyelerinin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve bunun ard\u0131ndan bir merdiven basama\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcn sabah yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yorumda endeks i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede en az\u0131ndan 73.500 seviyelerine kadar bir tepki bekledi\u011fimi ve dolar\/Tl kurunun da 3&#8217;\u00fcn alt\u0131na gerileyebilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftim. Borsan\u0131n ikili dibe yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir ata\u011f\u0131n etkisiyle ve de az\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel ortam\u0131n pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyordum. Fakat, derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan gelen mesajlar olumsuzdu. Borsam\u0131z s\u00fcrekli ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcn i\u00e7i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir trend olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sabah k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki resim, d\u00fcne g\u00f6re tam ters bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc sergiliyor. \u00c7in&#8217;de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksi 42.nci ayd\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve ayl\u0131k bazda en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinden birini yapt\u0131. E\u011eer youtube&#8217;da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m canl\u0131 yay\u0131n\u0131 izlemi\u015fseniz, \u00c7in i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle \u00dcFE&#8217;ye \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli vurgu yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ko-VVF4oyus\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">izlemek isteyenler bu linkten izleyebilirler<\/a>). Bu ak\u015fam saat 21:00&#8217;de yeniden Youtube \u00fczerinden webinar ve canl\u0131 yay\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in yetkililerinin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler piyasalar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli olarak yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rsa da, ana trendi de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi zor. Japonya&#8217;dan gelen sermaye mallar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 verisi de ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedince bu sabah Asya cephesinde yeniden sat\u0131\u015flar var.<\/p>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Standard &amp; Poors&#8217;un Asya ekonomileri i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi de bu olumsuz resme katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. ABD borsalar\u0131 g\u00fcne y\u00fckselerek ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra, g\u00fcn\u00fc ekside kapatt\u0131. Y\u00fczde 1.30-1.50 aras\u0131nda de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 vard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberght.com sitesinin haberine g\u00f6re<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> &#8220;S&amp;P, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada b\u00f6lgenin 2015\u2019te y\u00fczde 5.5 yerine y\u00fczde 5.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki gerilemeye Endonezya, Filipinler, Singapur, Tayvan ve Tayland \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck ediyor. S&amp;P bu \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">S&amp;P\u2019nin Asya-Pasifik ba\u015f ekonomisti Paul Gruenwald, \u201cPiyasa korkular\u0131 her ne kadar abart\u0131l\u0131 olsa da, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re bu korkular harekete ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yeterli oldu\u201d dedi. S&amp;P, Temmuz ay\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan raporuna g\u00f6re \u201cdaha yava\u015f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha y\u00fcksek volatilite ve daha fazla risk\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u00c7in\u2019in 2015 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ile ilgili tahmin y\u00fczde 6.8\u2019de tutuldu. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenti y\u00fczde 6.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. S&amp;P\u2019nin 2017 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 6.1\u2019e indi. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmazken, Malezya\u2019n\u0131nki 2015 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 4.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3968411777\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\">D\u00fcn borsam\u0131z g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerden kapat\u0131rken, dolar yine ald\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gitti. Bu sabah dolar 3.0480 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor ama 3.06 seviyeleri de test edildi. Normal \u015fartlarda dolarda da gerileme olmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. Asl\u0131nda d\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hareket \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli sinyaller verdi. E\u011fer borsa d\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fartlarda artamam\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerden kapatm\u0131\u015fsa ve dolar 3 TL seviyesinin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra d\u00f6n\u00fcp yeni bir rekora imza atm\u0131\u015fsa, bunun temel sebebi sadece i\u00e7 geli\u015fmeler de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki olumsuz konjonkt\u00fcrd\u00fcr. Yorumlar\u0131m\u0131 verirken hep k\u00fcresel yeni bir dalgadan bahsederek, \u00e7ekinceli davran\u0131yordum. \u015eu an d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan adeta gelmekte olan f\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n ilk esintileri var. Dolar\u0131n 3.06&#8217;y\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi bo\u015funa de\u011fil. FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sanki sular yeniden \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor. Ger\u00e7i kimse FED&#8217;den bir art\u0131\u015f beklemiyor ama d\u00fcn belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere, piyasalar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa risk almak istemeyebilir.<\/p>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\">Az \u00f6nce d\u00fcn borsa ve dolar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hareketlerin \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim. BIST-100&#8217;\u00fcn d\u00fcnk\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedenilye art\u0131k 71.500&#8217;\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p yeniden 70 bine kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z artt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla bug\u00fcn endeks d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131lacak ve 71.500 \u00a0civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6recektir. Bundan sonra da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir tepki yapabilir ama 71.500 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda sat\u0131\u015flar sertle\u015febilece\u011fi i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar buna dikkat etmeliler. Endeksin d\u00fcnk\u00fc hareketleri sonras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn 72.500 seviyesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. 72 bin \u00fczerine olacak hareketlerde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Dolarda ise yeni rekor g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn yeni ataklar gelebilir ve yeni rekor seviyeleri g\u00f6rebiliriz. D\u00f6vizde olanlar genelde pek pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yapmamal\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\">Sonu\u00e7 olarak ho\u015f olmayan bir g\u00fcne ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan 2. \u00e7eyrek GSHY b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi beklentilerden olumlu gelirse (Beklenti 3.4) piyasalar biraz rahatlayabilir fakat kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zannetmiyorum. Son s\u00f6z a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta stresli olur, sonra bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz, ondan sonras\u0131n\u0131 ise k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki trendler belirleyecektir.<\/p>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\">Sa\u011fl\u0131cakla kal\u0131n\u0131z&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1983547896\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f piyasalar \u00e7ok olumluydu. \u00d6zellikle Japonya&#8217;da \u00e7ok sert bir art\u0131\u015f vard\u0131. \u00c7in ve di\u011fer Asya borsalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fler yapmas\u0131 ve ABD endekslerinin future&#8217;lar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-41174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41174\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}