{"id":41047,"date":"2015-09-02T08:43:50","date_gmt":"2015-09-02T05:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=41047"},"modified":"2015-09-02T08:59:49","modified_gmt":"2015-09-02T05:59:49","slug":"stres-kaynaklari-ve-piyasalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/stres-kaynaklari-ve-piyasalar\/","title":{"rendered":"Stres Kaynaklar\u0131 ve Piyasalar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcn sizlere bu sayfada yorumumu yaz\u0131p yay\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u015flarken, Koza-\u0130pek grubuna operasyon haberini ald\u0131k. Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemliydi, fakat g\u00fcncellemek i\u00e7in zaman\u0131m yoktu.<\/strong> <\/em>Fuat Avni&#8217;nin s\u00f6ylediklerinin ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi asl\u0131nda kimseyi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131. D\u00fcn asl\u0131nda borsa g\u00fcne hafif bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7ine girdi, fakat fazla uzun s\u00fcrmedi. Yeniden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir trend i\u00e7ine girdi. Daha sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sertle\u015fti ve 75 bin seviyelerini g\u00f6ren endeks 1500 puan gerileyerek 73.500&#8217;\u00fcn alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 73.570 seviyesinden kapand\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3223034465\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte medya operasyonu k\u0131smen etkili oldu. Ama ana sebep Morgan Stanley&#8217;den gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve banka hisselerindeki fiyat hedeflerini y\u00fczde 15-20 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeleri ve bu arad d\u0131\u015f piyasalardaki stresin de artmas\u0131yd\u0131. Medya operasyonu k\u0131smen \u015f\u00f6yle etkiledi; \u00a0Koza grubu ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve operasyon yap\u0131labilece\u011fi belirtilen di\u011fer gruplar\u0131n hisselerindeki geri \u00e7ekilmeler BIST-100 endeksinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeki sebeplerden biriydi. 2 g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki verilere g\u00f6re KOZAA&#8217;da yabanc\u0131 pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 85, KOZAL&#8217;da y\u00fczde 59.6 ve IPEKE&#8217;de y\u00fczde 49 seviyelerindeydi. Yabanc\u0131 pay\u0131n\u0131n bu kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bu tahtalardaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 da belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fcrk\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Biraz daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131ya girdi\u011fimizde g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ki; Morgan Stanley&#8217;in Banka hisselerindeki fiyat hedeflerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin en \u00f6nemli sebebi, faizlerde en az 200 baz puan art\u0131\u015f beklemeleri. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla banka karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle 2016 i\u00e7inde \u00a0daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyorlar. \u00d6te yandan Morgan Stanley&#8217;in dolar i\u00e7in 2016&#8217;n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar 3.85 gibi bir rakamdan bahsetmesi ve Moodys&#8217;in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir h\u00fckumet kurulamamas\u0131 durumunda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin notunu indirmesini beklediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 strese soktu. \u00a0Zaten bu t\u00fcr bir ortamda d\u0131\u015f borsalar ve \u00f6zellikle ABD borsalar\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerle ba\u015flay\u0131nca borsam\u0131zda y\u00fczde 2&#8217;nin \u00fczerinde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00dcn de orta vadeli resmi \u00e7izerken, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin bir hikayesinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve borsada orta ve uzun vadeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 bir \u015fart\u0131n olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, orta vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7indeki tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc aktarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok. Fakat \u015funu da belirteyim ki; borsan\u0131n \u00f6nceki g\u00fcne kadar yukar\u0131 gitme iste\u011finde oldu\u011funu ve d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler olmasa asl\u0131nda al\u0131m bile \u00f6nerebilece\u011fimi ama, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelebilecek dalgalar\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 riski nedeniyle bunu \u00f6nermeyi fazla istemedi\u011fimi belirtmi\u015ftim.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu anki duruma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ABD borsa endeksleri y\u00fczde 2.80-3.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131lar. Yani \u00f6nceki 2-3 g\u00fcndeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f yeniden yerini sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe b\u0131rakt\u0131. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u00c7in verileri stres yaratmaya devam ediyor. FED&#8217;in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla olsa \u00a0bile faiz art\u0131rma riski \u015fimdiden piyasalar\u0131 geriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalar olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Merkez Bankam\u0131z da asl\u0131nda k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu konuda Sevgili Sadi Uzuno\u011flu&#8217;nun yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessht.com.tr\/yazarlar\/sadi-uzunoglu\/1123003-api-ile-nereye-kadar-gideriz\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">&#8220;AP\u0130 ile nereye kadar?&#8221;<\/a> ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131y\u0131 okuman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririm. \u015eu an likidite a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok artm\u0131\u015f durumda ve Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n buna dayanma g\u00fcc\u00fc ne kadar bilmiyorum ama faizlerde ileride \u00e7ok sert art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmayal\u0131m. Bu durum borsa i\u00e7in en k\u00f6t\u00fc haber olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla orta vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini tersine \u00e7evirecek fakt\u00f6rler yerine, \u015fiddetlendirebilecek fakt\u00f6rlerin daha bask\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ben bu c\u00fcmleleri yaz\u0131nca olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnsem de, k\u0131sa vadede teknik dinamikler endeksi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepkilere itecektir. T\u00fcm bu \u015fartlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek, kendi kararlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>DOlar baz\u0131nda daha \u00f6nce yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yorum ge\u00e7erlidir. 2.90-2.95 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanma devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece, sorun yoktur. Ama 2.95 yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 2.98-3.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na sert \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olabilir. Ya da 2.90 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 2.85-2.87 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Ama \u015fu an i\u00e7in 2.90&#8217;\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn ABD&#8217;den ATP \u0130stihdam verileri gelecek. Bu verinin a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 saatlerde ciddi volatilite ya\u015fanabilir. Ortam kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ve piyasalarda y\u00f6n tayini yapmak zor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2936078789\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Not<\/strong>: Ge\u00e7en hafta Para dergisi y\u00f6netiminin karar\u0131yla 2006&#8217;dan beri yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m bu dergideki yaz\u0131lar\u0131ma \u00a0son verildi. Hisse \u00f6nerilerimi merak edenlere biraz beklesinler, \u00f6nerilerimi daha farkl\u0131 bir formatta (K\u0131sa-orta ve uzun vadeli ) nas\u0131l payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 sizlere duyuraca\u011f\u0131m. Twit atarak bu konuda deste\u011fini esirgemeyen b\u00fct\u00fcn okuyucular\u0131ma sonsuz te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn sizlere bu sayfada yorumumu yaz\u0131p yay\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u015flarken, Koza-\u0130pek grubuna operasyon haberini ald\u0131k. Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemliydi, fakat g\u00fcncellemek i\u00e7in zaman\u0131m yoktu. Fuat Avni&#8217;nin s\u00f6ylediklerinin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-41047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41047\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}