{"id":4100,"date":"2011-08-16T10:50:47","date_gmt":"2011-08-16T07:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4100"},"modified":"2011-08-16T11:01:04","modified_gmt":"2011-08-16T08:01:04","slug":"fakirin-umudu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/fakirin-umudu\/","title":{"rendered":"Fakirin Umudu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Fakirin ekme\u011fi umudu bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131p T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin maliye politikas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda dersler \u00e7\u0131karmakta da yarar var.<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1860724234\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>K\u00fcresel finansal krizin \u00fcretim ve istihdam \u00fczerindeki tahrip edici etkisi 2008\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda ve 2009\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda tam anlam\u0131yla hissedildi. Afrika\u2019daki \u00e7o\u011fu yoksul \u00fclkeyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutup, d\u00fcnya gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n (GSYH) yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan \u00fclkelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2010 sonu itibariyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan resim \u015fuydu: T\u00fcm geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler ile \u00c7in, Endonezya, Hindistan ve Polonya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri krizde belirgin bi\u00e7imde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015flerdi. T\u00fcrkiye de ekonomisi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Krizin y\u00fck\u00fc \u00e7ok fazla\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Bu \u00fclkelerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu duruma sessiz kalmad\u0131lar. Bir IMF raporuna g\u00f6re May\u0131s 2009 itibariyle G-20\u2019nin geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerinin ald\u0131klar\u0131 ve alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin b\u00fct\u00e7elerine getirdi\u011fi toplam y\u00fck\u00fcn, bu grubun toplam GSYH\u2019sine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 17.1 idi. Bunun yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131ndan biraz fazlas\u0131 (17.1\u2019in 8.7\u2019si), b\u00fcy\u00fck bir deprem ya\u015famakta olan finansal sekt\u00f6rlerini kurtarma operasyonunun maliyetini yans\u0131t\u0131yordu. Maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ikinci s\u0131rada, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen ve i\u015fsizlik d\u00fczeyi artan ekonomilerde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckteki mevzuat gere\u011fi kendili\u011finden devreye giren i\u015fsizlik yard\u0131m\u0131 gibi b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131 geliyordu (otomatik dengeleyiciler: 17.1\u2019in 4.9\u2019u). Geriye kalan maliyet ise i\u00e7 talebi artt\u0131rmak \u00fczere al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerden kaynaklan\u0131yordu. S\u00f6z konusu \u00fc\u00e7 kalemin G-20 i\u00e7inde yer alan y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinin b\u00fct\u00e7elerine getirdi\u011fi toplam y\u00fck ise bu \u00fclkelerin toplam GSYH\u2019lerinin y\u00fczde 6.6\u2019s\u0131 kadard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu rakamlar da a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor ki, krizin, \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7elerine getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek boyutlara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu rakamlar\u0131n May\u0131s 2009 itibariyle al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nlemlerin olas\u0131 maliyetlerini de i\u00e7erdikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu y\u00fck\u00fcn t\u00fcm\u00fcyle s\u0131rtlan\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 elbette var. GSYH\u2019ye oranla y\u00fczde 17.1 olan bu de\u011feri \u00fc\u00e7-d\u00f6rt puan azaltsan\u0131z da sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. \u00d6nemli bir b\u00fct\u00e7e y\u00fck\u00fc ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme riski \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bu nedenle \u00e7o\u011fu geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkenin kamu kesiminin borcu \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde yer alan baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kamu borcu zaten k\u00fcresel kriz \u00f6ncesinde de y\u00fcksekti. Beklenen, al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin toparlanarak kriz \u00f6ncesindeki GSYH d\u00fczeylerini yakalayacaklar\u0131, bundan sonra da eski ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131 civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 tutturmaya ba\u015flayacaklar\u0131yd\u0131. B\u00f6ylelikle vergi gelirleri artacakt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, otomatik dengeleyici harcamalar azalaca\u011f\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebi uyar\u0131c\u0131 tek seferlik geni\u015flemeci \u00f6nlemler devreden \u00e7\u0131kacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in zamanla kamu borcu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir e\u011filim izleyecekti.<\/p>\n<p>Olmad\u0131. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin tekrar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeleri riski ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu risk, \u00e7ok de\u011fil bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce y\u00fcksek de\u011fildi; oysa \u015fimdi y\u00fckseldi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi patinaj yapmakla me\u015fgul, Japonya\u2019da deprem oldu, ABD ekonomisi beklenenden \u00e7ok yava\u015f toparlan\u0131yor, Ortado\u011fu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinin h\u0131z kesmekte oldu\u011funa dair sinyallerden s\u00f6z ediliyor.<br \/>\nHerkesi korkutmaya ba\u015flayan \u015fu: Bu \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7eleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7\u0131k veriyor ve baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kamu borcunun geldi\u011fi d\u00fczey piyasalar\u0131 rahats\u0131z ediyor. Bu rahats\u0131zl\u0131k bu \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lanma faizlerini yukar\u0131ya itiyor. Bu nedenle, tekrar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye ba\u015flamalar\u0131 halinde \u00e7o\u011fu geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkenin bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyle sava\u015facak yeterli cephanesi kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Umar\u0131m korkulan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki olumlu hava tekrar ge\u00e7erli olur. Olumlu bakmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak elbette iyi de fakirin ekme\u011fi umudu bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131p T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin maliye politikas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda dersler \u00e7\u0131karmakta da yarar var. S\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2595364240\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Not: S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim ve \u2018maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n durumu\u2019 \u00fcst ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan IMF raporuna IMF\u2019nin internet sayfas\u0131ndan ula\u015f\u0131labilir (IMF Staff Position Note, SPN\/09\/21).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fakirin ekme\u011fi umudu bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131p T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin maliye politikas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda dersler \u00e7\u0131karmakta da yarar var. \u00a0K\u00fcresel finansal krizin \u00fcretim ve istihdam \u00fczerindeki tahrip edici etkisi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}