{"id":40952,"date":"2015-09-10T08:40:47","date_gmt":"2015-09-10T05:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=40952"},"modified":"2015-09-10T08:50:40","modified_gmt":"2015-09-10T05:50:40","slug":"dolar-ne-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolar-ne-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar ne olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Sorular bitmiyor. Herkesin g\u00f6z\u00fc dolarda. \u00c7ok uzun bir s\u00fcredir bu soruyla bu kadar s\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. <\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2046071190\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonomilerde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik mesafesi s\u0131f\u0131ra indi\u011finde bu sorular\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 had safhaya ula\u015f\u0131r. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, hane halk\u0131ndan tutun da i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na ve bireylere kadar hi\u00e7 kimse bu sis ortam\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6remiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu t\u00fcr bir ortamda piyasa uzman\u0131 ya da ekonomist olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bizler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rebiliyor ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme yapabiliyor muyuz? Bu soruya da cevab\u0131m \u201c\u015f\u00fcphesiz ki hay\u0131r\u201d \u015feklindedir. Ama s\u0131radan insandan farkl\u0131 olarak hangi olay\u0131n, ne t\u00fcr fakt\u00f6r ve etkilerin kurlar \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l bir etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ABD\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 etkili olacak<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 y\u0131l\u0131 bulan tecr\u00fcbelerim, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, kriz \u00fczerine yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m kitap, bu konularda bir \u00f6nseziye sahip olabilmek konusunda bana ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve dersler verdi. Bir noktay\u0131 \u00e7ok net vurgulamakta fayda var. Kim olursa olsun, e\u011fer bir tahmin ya da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc yap\u0131yorsa belirli varsay\u0131mlarda bulunmak zorundad\u0131r. Bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n ne kadar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na da okuyucu karar verir. E\u011fer varsay\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ise okuyucu ikna olur, de\u011filse verilen tahminlere \u015f\u00fcphe ile yakla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDolar ne olur\u201d sorusuna cevap verirken kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131ralayay\u0131m. L\u00fctfen bunlar\u0131n varsay\u0131m oldu\u011funa dikkat ediniz. Dolar kuru tahmini yapabilmek i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u201cvarsay\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse\u201d tahminlerim tutarl\u0131 olur. Yoksa \u201ca\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki varsay\u0131mlar illaki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecektir\u201d demiyorum. Bilakis \u201cbu varsay\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olursa\u201d \u015feklinde bir de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131yorum. Varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Gazetesi&#8217;ndeki k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131m\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bugun.com.tr\/dolar-ne-olacak-yazisi-1825355\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorular bitmiyor. Herkesin g\u00f6z\u00fc dolarda. \u00c7ok uzun bir s\u00fcredir bu soruyla bu kadar s\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ekonomilerde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik mesafesi s\u0131f\u0131ra indi\u011finde bu sorular\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 had safhaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1464,1465,769,715],"class_list":["post-40952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-tahminleri","tag-borsa-tuyolari","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40952"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40952\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}