{"id":4090,"date":"2011-08-16T10:55:05","date_gmt":"2011-08-16T07:55:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=4090"},"modified":"2011-08-16T10:55:14","modified_gmt":"2011-08-16T07:55:14","slug":"ekonominin-anahtari-siyasettir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonominin-anahtari-siyasettir\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonominin Anahtar\u0131 Siyasettir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar haftaya olumlu ba\u015flad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerini \u015fimdilik nispi s\u00fck\u00fbnete b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f duruyor. Euro-dolar paritesi de dar bir bant i\u00e7inde hareket ediyor. Yoksa\u00a0<span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bir f\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesinin sessizli\u011fi mi?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3484509637\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u0131\u015far\u0131daki hava i\u00e7eriye de yans\u0131d\u0131. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda \u0130MKB y\u00fczde 1,5 yukar\u0131da seyrediyordu.\u00a0<span><strong>D\u00f6viz<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0kuru da biraz gev\u015fedi. Ancak d\u00f6viz sepeti h\u00e2l\u00e2 2.15 TL civar\u0131nda geziniyor. Kurun yeni alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 acaba nerede sabitlenecek?<\/p>\n<p>May\u0131s istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik verileri T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi kaps\u0131yor (Nisan-Haziran d\u00f6nemi). \u0130\u015fsizlik y\u00fczde 9.4\u2019e geriledi. Mevsim etkisi temizlenince y\u00fczde 10\u2019un biraz \u00fczerinde yatay seyrediyor. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00dc\u0130K Haziran d\u0131\u015f ticaret endekslerini de yay\u0131nlad\u0131. \u0130hracat ve ithalat miktar endekslerinde takvim ve mevsim etkisi temizlenince May\u0131s\u2019a g\u00f6re k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<span><strong>Son<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0kur hareketinden sonra Temmuz ve A\u011fustos verileri \u00f6nem kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>CNBC-e T\u00fcketici\u00a0<span><strong>G\u00fcven<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0endeksleri A\u011fustos ay\u0131 \u00f6n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Beklenece\u011fi gibi, k\u00fcresel sorunlar ve d\u00f6viz kuru t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenini olumsuz etkiliyor. 2008 krizinden bu yana en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u2018Is\u0131nma\u2019 hik\u00e2yesi de b\u00f6ylece bitiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tahminde \u00f6ncelik siyasettir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yazl\u0131kta bol ekonomi sohbeti yap\u0131yoruz. Yeni yazd\u0131m. \u0130\u015fler iyi giderken iktisat\u00e7\u0131ya ilgi azal\u0131r. Ekonomide sorunlar belirince aniden olay de\u011fi\u015fir. Vatanda\u015f\u0131n anlat\u0131lanlar\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ciddiye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyorum.\u00a0<span><strong>Ama<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sorular\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde kamuoyunun dikkati \u00f6zellikle AB ve ABD\u2019nin siyasi sorunlar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. AB i\u00e7in tart\u0131\u015fmalar Almanya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki sert tutumuna odaklan\u0131yor. Bundan sonra nas\u0131l davranaca\u011f\u0131 merak ediliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2584619023\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>ABD\u2019de bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 kavgas\u0131 tam anla\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ve \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtm\u0131\u015f. Ne olsa bizler yasama ile y\u00fcr\u00fctme aras\u0131nda bu t\u00fcr \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara al\u0131\u015fk\u0131n de\u011filiz. 2012\u2019de Ba\u015fkan se\u00e7imi var. Amerikan siyasetinin b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn kilitlenmesinden korkuluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Genellikle lafa ekonomi ile siyaset aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulayarak ba\u015fl\u0131yorum. Bu konuda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin deneyimi zengindir. Siyasi da\u011f\u0131n\u0131kl\u0131k mutlaka ekonomiyi ray\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131r. Sonra ekonomideki bozulma d\u00f6n\u00fcp siyaseti vurur.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile siyasi ko\u015fullar\u0131 hesaba katmadan ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ekonomik tahminler yap\u0131lamaz. Bir ad\u0131m daha atay\u0131m. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n ilk i\u015fi siyaseti do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc makro g\u00f6stergeleri siyaset belirleyecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7in\u2019i kestirmek olanaks\u0131z<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1143146031\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130lgimi \u00e7eken bir ba\u015fka husus var. Ya\u015fanan s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00c7in\u2019in kritik rol\u00fc dikkatten ka\u00e7\u0131yor. Konu\u015fmalarda \u00c7in\u2019e hi\u00e7 de\u011finilmiyor. Halbuki k\u00fcresel dengesizlik \u00c7in ihracatla b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde \u0131srar etti\u011fi i\u00e7in bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc d\u00fczelmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda AB ve ABD\u2019de siyasetin yak\u0131n gelecekte nas\u0131l evrilece\u011fini iyi k\u00f6t\u00fc g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc demokrasi toplumsal karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine \u015feffafl\u0131k getiriyor. Bunlar\u0131n analizini ve dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile tahminini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den \u00f6rnek verelim. Vatanda\u015f\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuruna duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Buradan hareketle h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u00f6viz kuru d\u00fczeltmesini se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na kayd\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Nitekim \u00f6yle oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ya \u00c7in? Tam bir kapal\u0131 kutu. \u0130tiraf edelim. Mevcut b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelini de\u011fi\u015ftirme karar\u0131n\u0131 kimin, ne zaman, hangi ko\u015fullarda ve hangi saiklerle alaca\u011f\u0131na dair kimsenin en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir fikri yok. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 sarsan esas belirsizlik budur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar haftaya olumlu ba\u015flad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerini \u015fimdilik nispi s\u00fck\u00fbnete b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f duruyor. Euro-dolar paritesi de dar bir bant i\u00e7inde hareket ediyor. Yoksa\u00a0yeni\u00a0bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4090\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}