{"id":40895,"date":"2015-08-25T23:55:43","date_gmt":"2015-08-25T20:55:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=40895"},"modified":"2015-08-26T08:54:53","modified_gmt":"2015-08-26T05:54:53","slug":"merkez-frene-basiyor-ama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-frene-basiyor-ama\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Merkez frene bas\u0131yor ama&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcnya ekonomisi yang\u0131n yeri ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck dip dalgaya ko\u015fuyor. Bir tarafta \u00c7in a\u00e7maz\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 deprem, 28 y\u0131l sonra ya\u015fanan kara pazartesi, di\u011fer yanda FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ile ilgili s\u00fcreci, \u00f6te yandan yanan Ortado\u011fu ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden artan risk ortam\u0131 ve iktisadi daralma\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2263375100\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc hem d\u00fcnyay\u0131, hem de bizi bir a\u00e7maza do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fcklenirken, finans ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama noktas\u0131ndaki sorunun \u015fiddetini de y\u00fckseltiyor. Dolar temelli problemimiz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsene dursun, \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Adnan Bali\u2019nin FED\u2019ten \u2018boru bile d\u00f6\u015feseniz\u2019, y\u00fckselen ihtiya\u00e7 halinde hi\u00e7bir rezervin yetmeyece\u011fi vurgusu ortada\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fimdi Merkez Bankas\u0131 yeni bir hamleye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun tutanaklar\u0131nda, enflasyonda istenen iyile\u015fmenin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgu yap\u0131larak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidilebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylendi. \u0130\u015fte T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan as\u0131l g\u00fcndem bu\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisadi olarak bor\u00e7 bata\u011f\u0131nda, finansman ihtiyac\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen, daralan d\u00fcnya pazar\u0131nda, korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir foto\u011frafta tek ba\u015f\u0131na olmasa da al\u0131nabilecek \u00f6nlemlerden biri.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Fakat burada temel bir sorun var. Y\u0131llard\u0131r uygulanan yanl\u0131\u015f politikalar, \u00fclkeyi bug\u00fcn parasal geni\u015fleme yap\u0131p, enflasyonu g\u00f6ze al\u0131p, i\u00e7 piyasaya nefes ald\u0131rmakla, matbaay\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131p reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc krize sokmak aras\u0131nda tercih yapamaz noktaya getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yani \u00f6yle yanl\u0131\u015f bir yola girmi\u015fsiniz ki, \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fczdeki iki ayr\u0131m da, u\u00e7urum ile sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. Bu ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi ve i\u015fin do\u011frusu yanl\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara koyup, Merkez\u2019in parasal geni\u015fleme hamlesini ekopolitik d\u00fczeyde okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye bir se\u00e7ime giderken ve tek umudunu elde avu\u00e7takine yat\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bir iktidar varken, bilhassa 400 milletvekili hayalleri kuran Be\u015ftepe orada dururken, Merkez Bankas\u0131 parasal bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidebilir mi? B\u00f6yle bir e\u011filim, sonu\u00e7ta paran\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n istifaya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenece\u011fi bir sonucu do\u011furur mu?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu anda ba\u015fta \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131n (!) projeler, d\u00fcnyadan tek kuru\u015fluk finansman bulamazken, kamu bankalar\u0131 yoluyla musluklar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve muhtemelen ciddi g\u00f6rev zararlar\u0131yla noktalanacak bu s\u00fcreci nas\u0131l tersine \u00e7evirece\u011fiz?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-674505797\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Paray\u0131 k\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z anda, mevcut iktidar\u0131n dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik daralma daha \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcmez mi? \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne paralel bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fczerinden ba\u015fka bir sorun kap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7almaz m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yine bir ba\u015fka sual\u2026 B\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini tamamen i\u00e7 piyasaya ba\u011flam\u0131\u015f bir T\u00fcrkiye, bu kararla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckmese de, paray\u0131 k\u0131sarak i\u00e7 piyasay\u0131 kilitlemez mi; \u00f6demeleri daha da a\u00e7maz noktaya s\u00fcr\u00fcklemez mi? B\u00f6yle bir durumda, laf olsun diye s\u00f6ylenen y\u00fczde 3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bile hayal olmaz m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n, tersini yapsan\u0131z ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gibi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z paray\u0131 h\u00fclle yoluyla kulland\u0131rsan\u0131z da sorun a\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor. Fakat burada d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fclkelerden bizi farkl\u0131 k\u0131lan bir risk daha var. Tahsil\u00e2t s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ndan kavrulan ve vadeli i\u015fleyen piyasalar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131k hesap \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan bir reel sekt\u00f6r ortam\u0131nda, \u00e7ek ve senetlerin dahi \u00f6demedi\u011fi bir foto\u011fraf\u0131n tam ortas\u0131nda, 24 aya varan vadeler, \u00fclkenin en az 2 senelik hesaplanamayan bir riski oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini yok etmiyor. \u00dczerine bir de parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya giderseniz, \u00f6demeler sorunu daha da i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz bir noktaya gelecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-210881235\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l kelam, ekonomik olarak t\u00fcm alternatifler tart\u0131\u015f\u0131labilir. Y\u0131llarca yap\u0131lan yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6yle ya da b\u00f6yle faturas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyece\u011fiz. Ama bir hareket yaparken, di\u011fer yandan nas\u0131l bir sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilip, onun da \u00f6nlemini almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131z gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Elbette bunlar\u0131n hepsi finansal ya da reel ekonominin ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n yans\u0131mas\u0131\u2026 \u00c7akma bir enflasyonu tutturarak nas\u0131l bir sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor, onu anlamam zor. Ama as\u0131l sorun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck gecekondusunda ikamet eden ki\u015fi\u2026 Ona ra\u011fmen yapabilecek misiniz? G\u00f6rece\u011fiz\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisi yang\u0131n yeri ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck dip dalgaya ko\u015fuyor. Bir tarafta \u00c7in a\u00e7maz\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 deprem, 28 y\u0131l sonra ya\u015fanan kara pazartesi, di\u011fer&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-40895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40895\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}