{"id":39946,"date":"2015-06-09T00:12:55","date_gmt":"2015-06-08T21:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=39946"},"modified":"2015-06-09T09:08:22","modified_gmt":"2015-06-09T06:08:22","slug":"kredi-notu-ve-secim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kredi-notu-ve-secim\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Kredi notu ve se\u00e7im"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 yorumlar yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Siyasetin kendi i\u00e7indeki hesaplar\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, bence en anlaml\u0131 (!) a\u00e7\u0131klama, s\u0131f\u0131rc\u0131 hoca olarak bilinen Standart &amp; Poors\u2019tan geldi.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3121929328\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme \u015firketi, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke kredi notu \u00fczerinde hemen etkisi olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan JP Morgan\u2019dan gelen vurgu ise g\u00fcler misin, a\u011flar m\u0131s\u0131n cinsindendi: \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket etmek i\u00e7in imk\u00e2n kazand\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sadece bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bile AKP\u2019nin \u2018biz gidersek\u2019 tehdidinin hi\u00e7bir anlam\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi\u2026 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik a\u00e7mazlar\u0131 ne kadar iktidar\u0131n\u0131n eseri de olsa, ya\u015fayacaklar\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ya da yoklu\u011fuyla direkt ilgisi yok.<\/p>\n<p>Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok uzun zamand\u0131r siyaseten karar verdi\u011fini zaten biliyoruz. Fakat her birinin T\u00fcrkiye ad\u0131na ortaya koydu\u011fu seviyenin kritik noktada oldu\u011funu da hat\u0131rlamakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda risk g\u00f6rmeleri gereken bir durumu ge\u00e7i\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n iki temel nedeni olabilir. Bunlardan birincisi siyasi geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6rmek\u2026 E\u011fer b\u00f6yle olsayd\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmaz ve sessizce izlemeyi tercih ederlerdi.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapma ihtiyac\u0131 duyuyorsan\u0131z ve bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u2018sakin olun\u2019 cinsinden ise, mesaj\u0131n\u0131z o \u00fclkede ya\u015fayanlara de\u011fil, i\u00e7eride s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131zad\u0131r. Oysa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunun teknik olarak d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in, zaten bir se\u00e7im ge\u00e7irmesine gerek yoktu.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131, \u00f6nlemez cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve sorun olmaya devam eden finansman\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli, tasarruf miktar\u0131ndaki neredeyse yokluk ve belki vatanda\u015f\u0131n de\u011fil ama, kendilerinin yak\u0131ndan bildi\u011fi oynanan rakamlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek hali, bir \u00fclkenin notunun d\u00fc\u015fmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7oktan gerekliydi.<\/p>\n<p>Ama ortadaki hadise ekonomi bilimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirmeden uzak\u2026 Kendi besledikleri ve bunun \u00fczerinden de \u00f6nemli k\u00e2r transferleri yapt\u0131klar\u0131 bir yap\u0131n\u0131n, hata yapmas\u0131 muhtemel y\u00f6netimin ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan en az hasarla yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karabilmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-170799828\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nitekim JP Morgan\u2019\u0131n Merkez\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin at\u0131fta bulunmas\u0131 da, esasen \u00fclkede ekonominin ger\u00e7eklerle de\u011fil, kuru siyasetle ve ki\u015fisel ihtiraslarla y\u00f6netildi\u011finin ne kadar fark\u0131nda olduklar\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00f6stergesi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bence T\u00fcrkiye bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n tamam\u0131na kulaklar\u0131n\u0131 t\u0131kamal\u0131\u2026 Peki, bunu nas\u0131l yapars\u0131n\u0131z? Size ait ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir yol haritan\u0131z varsa\u2026 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6yle bir haritas\u0131 yok. Bu i\u015fi \u00e7\u00f6zece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyip de, Meclis\u2019e girenlerin tamam\u0131 da, gelece\u011fini umduklar\u0131 bir paran\u0131n \u00fczerinden zaman kazanma hesab\u0131yla hareket ediyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu hesap 2008\u2019den sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olarak ge\u00e7erlilik kazand\u0131. Ama bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekle y\u00fczle\u015fmekten ba\u015fka \u00e7aresi yok. Ho\u015fa gider mi gitmez mi bilemem; ama burada s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n isteyece\u011fi en son \u015feyin bu oldu\u011funa eminim.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1708745608\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 yorumlar yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Siyasetin kendi i\u00e7indeki hesaplar\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, bence en anlaml\u0131 (!) a\u00e7\u0131klama, s\u0131f\u0131rc\u0131 hoca olarak bilinen Standart &amp;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-39946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39946\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}