{"id":3993,"date":"2011-08-10T23:52:53","date_gmt":"2011-08-10T20:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3993"},"modified":"2011-08-10T23:53:04","modified_gmt":"2011-08-10T20:53:04","slug":"temel-dengeler-beklentiler-bulasma-ve-kriz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/temel-dengeler-beklentiler-bulasma-ve-kriz\/","title":{"rendered":"Temel dengeler, beklentiler, bula\u015fma ve kriz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ktisadi krizler iyi tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f olgulard\u0131r. De\u011fi\u015fik nedenlerden kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f olsa da iktisadi kriz sonu\u00e7ta ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan reel kay\u0131plarla tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. Reel kay\u0131plar\u00a0 \u00fcretim azalmas\u0131, istahdamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u015fsizli\u011fin art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0 vb gibi olgulard\u0131r. Bir s\u00fcrecin kriz olarak tan\u0131mlanabilmesi i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretmesi gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1802430141\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ktisadi krizler \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlere olu\u015fabilir. En bilinen neden ekonominin temel dengelerinde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez boyutta bozulmalar olu\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r. Temel dengeler ekonominin imkanlar\u0131 ile kullan\u0131mlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki uyum olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. \u0130mkanlar\u0131n\u0131 (kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131) a\u015fan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kaynak kullanan ekonomilerde temel dengeler bozulur. Bozulan dengelerin yeniden kurulmas\u0131 genellikle kriz olarak nitelenen durumlar\u0131 do\u011furur. Reel kay\u0131plar<\/p>\n<p>olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n<p>Temel dengeler yerli yerinde olsa da iktisadi kriz olabilir. Bu t\u00fcr krizlerin kayna\u011f\u0131 beklentilerin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin ekonomide daralmay\u0131 gerektiren bir denge bozulmas\u0131 olmasa da, beklentilerin olumsuz y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nmesi, akt\u00f6rlerin kaynak kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 frenlemesine yol a\u00e7ar, harcamalar ve talep d\u00fc\u015fer,\u00a0 \u00fcretimde daralma olur,\u00a0 ekonomi\u00a0 geriler, reel kay\u0131plar \u00e7\u0131kar ortaya.\u00a0 Sonu\u00e7ta sadece beklentlerin de\u011fi\u015fmesi aynen dengesizliklerin \u00fcretti\u011fi t\u00fcrde bir kriz \u00fcretir. Beklentilerin \u00fcretti\u011fi (self fullfilling) kriz olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131r bu s\u00fcre\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>Beklenti bozulmas\u0131 i\u00e7eriden gelebilece\u011fi gibi uluslararas\u0131 planda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan olumsuzluklardan da kaynaklanabilir. Ekonominin temel dengeleri kurulu ve beklentiler g\u00f6rece olumluyken bile iktisadi kriz olu\u015fur, reel kay\u0131plar ortaya\u00a0 \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bir ba\u015fka \u00fclkede ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan iktisadi kriz uluslararas\u0131 ticari ve finansal ba\u011flant\u0131lar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ya da beklentilerin bozulmas\u0131 yoluyla sa\u011flam olan \u00fclkeye bula\u015fabilir. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, bilinen nedenlerin hi\u00e7 birisi yokken, ulusal ekonomide d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bula\u015fma yoluyla da iktisadi kriz olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bula\u015fma konusunda iki noktaya dikkat etmek gerekir. Birincisi, ekonomide temel dengelerde sorun olmas\u0131 ya da beklentilerin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki bir krizin i\u00e7eriye bula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Ekonomi ne kadar sorunluysa bula\u015fma dinami\u011fine o kadar a\u00e7\u0131k olacaanlam\u0131na gelir bu. K\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin\u00a0 ulusal krizlerin uluslararas\u0131 bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k dozunu y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken ikinci noktad\u0131r. K\u00fcresel ili\u015fkilerin yo\u011funlu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131ktan etkilenme dozunuzun de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir bu.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7ta, krizden ka\u00e7\u0131nabilmek i\u00e7in iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ve beklenti y\u00f6netiminin e\u015f anl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ve \u00f6zenle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.\u00a0 Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda iktisadi ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n temel dengeleri koruyan, beklentilerinin bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyen iktisat politikalar\u0131 uygulamaktan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-249556555\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde bir kez daha kriz ortam\u0131na savrulduk gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.En az\u0131ndan ortam b\u00f6yle bir y\u00f6ne devindi. Olu\u015fan ortam\u0131 yukar\u0131da s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fc\u00e7 neden a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131nan irdelemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Kendi ad\u0131ma temel dengeler, beklentiler ve bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n hepsinin bu savrulmada rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin kaynak kullan\u0131mn\u0131n imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani temel dengelerinden birisinin bozuk oldu\u011fu biliniyor. Bunun h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k gibi bir kan\u0131t\u0131 var. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k kriz ortam\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fumunu belki do\u011frudan belirlemedi. Yani bu kriz bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k krizi de\u011fil. Ancak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00a0 ekonomiyi beklenti k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ve bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k dinami\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z hale getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Son y\u0131llarda ya\u015fanan krizlerin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde beklentileri fevkalade duyarl\u0131, oynak ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getirdi\u011fi biliniyor. En ufak bir esinti dahi beklentilerin h\u0131zla y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine ve ekonomide bir kas\u0131lma ya\u015fanmas\u0131na\u00a0 neden oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Salt bu nedenle dahi T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde beklenti y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6zel bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m. Bu \u00f6zel \u00f6neme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k beklenti y\u00f6netiminin gereken \u00f6zenle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemek zor. Tersine, siyasilerin sorumsuz beyanlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra politika d\u00fczenleyicilerin fazlas\u0131yla opak tav\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri\u00a0 tersine \u00e7evirerek kriz ortam\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2988467436\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dengeleri ve beklentileri gereken \u00f6zenle y\u00fcr\u00fctmemi\u015f olmam\u0131z\u0131n bizi bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korumas\u0131z b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Son devinimde Avrupa ve ABD&#8217;deki olumsuzluklardan bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilenmi\u015f olmam\u0131z bunu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, kriz \u00e7\u0131kartmayacak ko\u015fullardan bir kez daha kriz \u00fcretmeyi becermi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ktisadi krizler iyi tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f olgulard\u0131r. De\u011fi\u015fik nedenlerden kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f olsa da iktisadi kriz sonu\u00e7ta ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan reel kay\u0131plarla tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. Reel kay\u0131plar\u00a0 \u00fcretim azalmas\u0131, istahdamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u015fsizli\u011fin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3993\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}