{"id":39909,"date":"2015-06-08T08:53:41","date_gmt":"2015-06-08T05:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=39909"},"modified":"2015-06-08T09:06:47","modified_gmt":"2015-06-08T06:06:47","slug":"secim-sonrasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/secim-sonrasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im Sonras\u0131&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>\u015eu ana kadar herhalde bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 okuyan herkes, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015ftir. Dilerim 2015 haziran se\u00e7imleri \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in hay\u0131rl\u0131 olur.<\/strong> <\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1356859885\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ak parti 257-258 civar\u0131nda milletvekili \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla siyaseten art\u0131k eski g\u00fcc\u00fc yok. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 &#8220;neden b\u00f6yle oldu&#8221; sorusuna de\u011finmeyece\u011fim. Bunu siyasi partilerimiz veya arzu edenler\u00a0kendi aralar\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ve karar\u00a0versinler. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 tablonun ekonomi ve piyasalar \u00fczerindeki etkisini anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere d\u00fcn gece Asya piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015flemlerin ba\u015flamas\u0131yla dolar\/TL kurunda i\u015flemler ba\u015flad\u0131 ve ilk g\u00f6r\u00fclen rakam 2.79 civar\u0131yd\u0131. Daha sonra 2.74&#8217;e kadar geriledi ve \u015fu dakikalarda 2.7780 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Dolar konusuna gelece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>Borsa 82 binin hemen alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f rakam\u0131n\u0131 saat 09:35&#8217;te g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Borsaya ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi de az sonraya b\u0131rak\u0131yorum. \u00a0\u015eimdi maddde madde ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m konular\u0131n \u00fczerinden gidelim.<\/p>\n<p>1. Ekonominin ve piyasalar\u0131n bundan sonraki y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek temel fakt\u00f6r siyaset olacakt\u0131r. Bunu bu haftaki para dergisinde de \u00f6zellikle vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>2. Se\u00e7imden \u00f6nceki b\u00fct\u00fcn yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda koalisyon bekliyorsan\u0131z veya tek parti iktidar\u0131 bekliyorsan\u0131z buna g\u00f6re pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 al\u0131n diyerek \u00f6zel bir pozisyon \u00f6nerisinde bulunmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Anketlerin ortalamalar\u0131 tam isabet kaydetti.<\/p>\n<p>3. Se\u00e7imden \u00f6nce \u015funu da belirtmi\u015ftim; e\u011fer tek parti iktidar\u0131 olursa borsada sert art\u0131\u015f ve dolarda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz, koalisyon \u00e7\u0131karsa dolarda sert art\u0131\u015f, borsada sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz demi\u015ftim ama kendi beklentimi sizlerle payla\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>4. \u015eu ana kadar anlatt\u0131klar\u0131m zaten sizlerce de bilinen \u015feylerdi. Yani hepiniz, koalisyon \u00e7\u0131karsa dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 gidece\u011fini, borsan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini biliyordunuz. Ben sadece son TV program\u0131mda dengeli bir portf\u00f6y\u00fcn koruyucu olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015f ve yar\u0131s\u0131 d\u00f6viz yar\u0131s\u0131 da TL enstr\u00fcmanlar (hisse mevduat, fon vs) olarak \u00f6neri vermi\u015ftim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc anket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu ve koalisyon ya da tek parti iktidar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 y\u00fczde 50-50 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ama HDP beklentilerin en az 2 puan \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3914236949\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>5. Az \u00f6nce de belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere bundan sonraki en az 1-2 ay i\u00e7inde piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r siyaset olacakt\u0131r. Peki siyasette neler olabilir ve Hangi senaryolar\u00a0piyasalar \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l etki yarat\u0131r? Bu etkileri KISA ve ORTA vade olarak ay\u0131rmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>6. KISA vadeli etkinin bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak dolar 2.78&#8217;e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te art\u0131\u015f trendi devam eder mi? sorusuna cevab\u0131m HAYIR. Dolar\u0131n 2.80 seviyesini a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Genellikle bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ilk seviyeler zirveye yak\u0131n yerler olmaya adayd\u0131r. Fakat, \u015funu belirteyim ki, hen\u00fcz ilk seviyelerden bahsetmek zor. yani 2.78-2.79 seviyeleri FX piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ama, \u00f6nemli olan \u015fey, bankalar aras\u0131 piyasada dolar\u0131n g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ilk seviye olacakt\u0131r. Bu sabah interbank a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2.90 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, 2.92-2.93 seviyeleri bu birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek seviyeleri olur.\u00a0e\u011fer 2.78 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa 2.80-2.81 seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek en y\u00fcksek seviye olur. Yani interbank&#8217;\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131na bak\u0131n\u0131z, buna en fazla y\u00fczde 1-3 aras\u0131n\u0131 ekleyiniz. 19915 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerinde de koalisyon \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve dolar \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 2.5 civar\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>7. Borsada y\u00fczde 5-8 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde borsan\u0131n g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi en dip seviyenin 76-78 bin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu seviyelerde destek bulup siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 bekleyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>8. Her siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klama dalgalanma yaratacakt\u0131r. Bana g\u00f6re koalisyon yok. \u00c7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla AK Parti yeni h\u00fckumeti kuracak ve mecliste \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Buna muhalefet meclise gitmeyerek dolayl\u0131 destek verebilir. Ama s\u00fcrekli denetlenen ve yasama yetkisi zay\u0131f olan bir y\u00fcr\u00fctme olacakt\u0131r. Kuvvetler ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden yerli yerine oturmas\u0131 ortam olu\u015fmu\u015ftur. Ak Parti iktidar\u0131 b\u0131rakmak istemeyecek ve yeni d\u00f6nemde kendini sorgulayacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1868778772\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yay\u0131na girmek zorunday\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla webinar yapaca\u011f\u0131z. Devam\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131ndan sonra yazmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eu ana kadar herhalde bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 okuyan herkes, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015ftir. Dilerim 2015 haziran se\u00e7imleri \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in hay\u0131rl\u0131 olur. Ak parti 257-258 civar\u0131nda milletvekili \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1084,769,715],"class_list":["post-39909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-egitimleri","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39909\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}