{"id":39852,"date":"2015-06-02T22:35:48","date_gmt":"2015-06-02T19:35:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=39852"},"modified":"2015-06-02T23:20:05","modified_gmt":"2015-06-02T20:20:05","slug":"doviz-aciginin-adresi-kim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/doviz-aciginin-adresi-kim\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; D\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n adresi kim?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk g\u00f6stergesi uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bakmay\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m denildi\u011finde, asl\u0131nda bu en basit anlam\u0131yla cebinizdeki parayla, borcunuz aras\u0131ndaki farkt\u0131r.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1854513721\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yak\u0131n zamana kadar bu rakam 420 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrediyordu. D\u00fcnyada ekonominin daralmas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, eskisi kadar s\u0131cak para gelmemesi nedeniyle, yak\u0131n zamanda burada bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Her ne kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f faydal\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckse de, bu arada TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yitirdi\u011fi de\u011fer, bizim i\u00e7in riskin boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek bir yana, artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Fakat yine de pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z azal\u0131yor cinsinden haberler okuyorsunuz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Oysa kur 2,20 iken 420 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k, 924 milyar TL; kur 2,67 iken 382 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k, 1 trilyon 20 milyar TL yap\u0131yor. Fakat dolar baz\u0131nda bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olarak kamuoyuna duyuruluyor. E\u011fer dolar basma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131z yoksa netice \u015fu: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansman maliyeti artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Lakin i\u015f burada bitmiyor. Bunun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u00f6viz bazl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz; \u00e7ok fazla ekonomik form\u00fcllere girmeden ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar yapmadan, basit anlat\u0131mla man\u00e2s\u0131, \u00f6denmesi gereken bor\u00e7tur. 2015 mart sonu i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler \u00fczerinden hesap yapal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6z konusu bor\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne s\u00f6yleniyor? Bu bireylerin ve \u015firketlerin borcu\u2026 Bireyler yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanamayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re toplam t\u00fcketici borcuna bakmak gerekiyor. 20 May\u0131s itibariyle a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi verilerine g\u00f6re kullan\u0131lan t\u00fcketici ve konut kredilerinin toplam\u0131 261 milyar TL oldu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Riski bankalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde olmakla birlikte, tamam\u0131n\u0131 gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik muhtemel gelirler \u00fczerinden bor\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ve garantisi de olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon kabul etsek, ki teknik olarak hatal\u0131d\u0131r ama t\u00fcketicinin borcunu \u015fi\u015firelim; 2,67 kur \u00fczerinden yuvarlayarak 98 milyar dolar buluruz.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer adres neydi? \u015eirketlerin borcu var. Merkez Bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131: Finans d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015firketlerin net d\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da 173,5 milyar dolar. K\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 da 130,7 milyar dolar ve bunun sadece bankalar kaynakl\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131 95 milyar dolar. Yani y\u00fck bankalarda\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2895872306\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi hesab\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck tekrar yapal\u0131m. Mart 2015 itibariyle uluslar aras\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z toplamda 382 milyar dolar ise ve t\u00fcketici ile \u015firketlerin pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da 268 milyar dolar ediyorsa, 114 milyar dolarl\u0131k risk kimin \u00fczerinde?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcphesiz hepsi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin borcu\u2026 Pratikte uygulanmasa da daha iyi anlatmak ad\u0131na bir te\u015fbih yapay\u0131m. Bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyayla hesapla\u015fmaya kalksak masaya 382 milyar dolar koymam\u0131z gerekiyor ve b\u00f6yle bir para yok; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131k miktar\u0131m\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Her g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde de t\u00fcketici ile \u015firketler su\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re; soru gayet basit: 114 milyar dolar kimin a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131? L\u00fctfen yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verirken ekonomik terimlere ve bahanelere bo\u011fmay\u0131n. Vatanda\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fcyle ve bakkal hesab\u0131yla basit bir soru soruyorum: \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bor\u00e7lu adres kim ve neden ondan hi\u00e7 bahsedilmez?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1178919141\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk g\u00f6stergesi uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bakmay\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m denildi\u011finde, asl\u0131nda bu en basit anlam\u0131yla cebinizdeki parayla, borcunuz aras\u0131ndaki farkt\u0131r. &nbsp;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-39852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39852\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}